Summary
This report covers the market landscape and supply-chain for silicon wafers used in semiconductor device fabrication. It includes information about key suppliers, issues/trends in the material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the material segments.
Silicon wafers are the fundamental starting point for nearly all semiconductor device fabrication. As such, the criticality of the role that this material plays in the semiconductor supply chain is hard to refute and is treated as such accordingly in this Critical Materials Reports
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• Contains data and analysis from TECHCET’s database and Sr. Analyst experience, as well as that developed from primary and secondary market research
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• Provides focused silicon wafers supply chain information for supply-chain managers, process integration and R andD directors, as well as business development and financial analysts
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• Covers information about key silicon wafer suppliers, issues/trends in the silicon wafer supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and silicon wafer market forecasting
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9
1.1 SILICON WAFER BUSINESS – MARKET OVERVIEW 10
1.2 MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING 2024 OUTLOOK 11
1.3 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR UNIT SHIPMENT FORECAST BY DIAMETER 12
1.4 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT, INCLUDING SOI 13
1.5 SILICON WAFER SEGMENT TRENDS 14
1.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 15
1.7 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 16
1.8 MOST RECENTLY REPORTED QUARTERLY FINANCIALS OF TOP- 5 17
1.9 EHS, TRADE, AND/OR LOGISTICS ISSUES/CONCERNS 18
1.10 ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF SILICON WAFERS 19
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 20
2.1 SCOPE 21
2.2 METHODOLOGY 22
2.3 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR(TM) OFFERINGS 23
3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS and OUTLOOK 24
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY AND OUTLOOK 25
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 27
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 28
3.1.3 TAIWAN OUTSOURCE MANUFACTURER MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 29
3.2 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT 30
3.2.1 ELECTRONICS OUTLOOK 31
3.2.2 AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 32
3.2.2.1 ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) MARKET TRENDS 33
3.2.2.2 INCREASE IN SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT FOR AUTOS 34
3.2.3 SMARTPHONE OUTLOOK 35
3.2.4 PC OUTLOOK 36
3.2.5 SERVERS / IT MARKET 37
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH and EXPANSION 38
3.3.1 IN THE MIDST OF HUGE INVESTMENT IN CHIP EXPANSIONS 39
3.3.2 NEW FABS IN THE US 40
3.3.3 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 41
3.3.4 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 42
3.3.5 ADVANCED LOGIC TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 43
3.3.5.1 DRAM TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 44
3.3.5.2 3D NAND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 45
3.3.6 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 46
3.4 POLICY and TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 47
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OVERVIEW 48
3.5.1 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2028 49
3.5.2 TECHCET MATERIALS MARKET FORECAST THROUGH 2028 50
4 SILICON WAFER MARKET TRENDS 51
4.1 SILICON WAFERS MARKET TRENDS – OUTLINE 52
4.1.1 2023 SILICON WAFER MARKET LEADING INTO 2024 53
4.1.2 SILICON WAFER MARKET OUTLOOK 54
4.1.2.1 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR UNIT SHIPMENT FORECAST BY DIAMETER 55
4.1.2.2 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR EPI UNIT SHIPMENT FORECAST BY DIAMETER 56
4.1.2.3 SILICON WAFER 2024 SHIPMENT FORECAST BY DIAMETER 57
4.1.2.4 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST INCLUDING SOI 58
4.2 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF TOP SUPPLIERS 59
4.2.1 SILICON WAFER CAPACITY / PRODUCTION BY REGION 60
4.3 SILICON WAFER EXPANSIONS AND INVESTMENTS- OVERVIEW 61
4.3.1 SILICON WAFER EXPANSIONS AND INVESTMENTSANNOUNCEMENTS 62
4.3.2 SILICON WAFER EXPANSIONS AND INVESTMENTS – COMMENTS 63
4.4 SILICON WAFER SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE - OVERVIEW 64
4.4.1 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 300MM SILICON WAFERS 65
4.4.2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 200MM SILICON WAFERS 66
4.4.3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 300MM SILICON EPI WAFERS 68
4.5 PRICING TRENDS 69
4.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS/TECHNICAL DRIVERS - OUTLINE 71
4.6.1 SILICON WAFER GENERAL TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW 72
4.6.2 SILICON WAFER TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 73
4.6.3 SPECIALTY/EMERGING SILICON WAFER AND APPLICATIONS 74
4.7 REGIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 75
4.7.1 REGIONAL ASPECTS AND DRIVERS 76
4.8 EHS AND TRADE/LOGISTIC ISSUES 78
4.8.1 EHS ISSUES 79
4.8.2 TRADE/LOGISTICS ISSUES 80
4.9 ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF SILICON WAFER MARKET TRENDS 81
5 ACTIVITY OF LEADING WAFER SUPPLIERS 82
5.1 SILICON WAFER MARKET SHARE 83
5.1.1 CURRENT QUARTER - SUPPLIERS’ ACTIVITIES and REPORTED REVENUES 84
5.1.2 CURRENT QUARTER TOP-5 SUPPLIERS’ ACTIVITIES and REPORTED REVENUES 85
5.1.3 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – SHIN ETSU 86
5.1.4 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – SUMCO 87
5.1.5 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – GLOBALWAFERS 88
5.1.6 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – SILTRONIC 89
5.1.7 CURRENT QUARTER ACTIVITY – SK SILTRON 90
5.2 M andA ACTIVITY AND PARTNERSHIPS - NONE 91
5.3 PLANT CLOSURES 92
5.4 NEW ENTRANTS 93
5.5 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINES THAT ARE AT RISK OF DISCONTINUATIONS 94
5.6 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF SILICON WAFER SUPPLIERS 95
6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN, POLYSILICON 96
6.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: SOURCES and MARKETS OVERVIEW 97
6.1.1 POLYSILICON MARKET BACKGROUND 98
6.1.2 POLYSILICON MARKET TRENDS 99
6.1.3 POLYSILICON - INDUSTRIAL VS. SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE 100
6.1.4 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON DEMAND 101
6.1.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY CHAIN: POLYSILICON MARKET SHARE 102
6.1.6 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS and EXPANSION PLANS 103
6.1.7 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON EXPANSION PLANS andNEWS 104
6.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS 105
6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN M andA OR PARTNERSHIP ACTIVITY 106
6.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 107
6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS 109
6.6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT UPDATES 110
6.7 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT CLOSURES 111
6.8 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 112
6.9 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 113
7 SUPPLIER PROFILES 114
CENGOL
CETC
CHONGQING AST
CREE/WOLFSPEED
…and 20+ more
8 APPENDIX 196
8.1 INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS – SUPPLEMENTAL 197
8.2 CHINA SUPPLIERS- 300 MM PLANTS/INVESTMENTS – SUPPLEMENTAL 199
8.3 CHINA SUPPLIERS- 200 MM PLANTS/INVESTMENTS – SUPPLEMENTAL 201
8.4 CHINA IMPACT ON GLOBAL 200 MM SUPPLY 202
8.5 SIC WAFERS - SUPPLEMENTAL 203
8.6 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS - SUPPLEMENTAL 204
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List of Tables/Graphs
FIGURES
FIGURE 1.1: SILICON WAFER AREA SHIPMENT FORECAST 12
FIGURE 1.2: SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST BY SEGMENT, INCLUDING SOI 13
FIGURE 1.3: 2023 SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE BY REVENUE TOP 3 VS. TOP 5 16
FIGURE 1.4: 2023 SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE BY REVENUE 16
FIGURE 1.5: COMBINED REVENUES OF SHIN ETSU, SUMCO, GLOBALWAFERS, SILTRONIC, AND SK SILTRON 17
FIGURE 3.1: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2023) 27
FIGURE 3.2: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 28
FIGURE 3.3: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX (TTSI) 29
FIGURE 3.4: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 30
FIGURE 3.5: GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE UNIT SALES (IN MILLIONS OF UNITS) 32
FIGURE 3.6: ELECTRIFICATION TREND BY WORLD REGION 33
FIGURE 3.7: AUTOMOTIVE SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION 34
FIGURE 3.8: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS, WW ESTIMATES 35
FIGURE 3.9: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST 36
FIGURE 3.10: TSMC PHOENIX CAMPUS WITH THE 2ND FAB VISIBLE IN THE BACKGROUND 38
FIGURE 3.11: ESTIMATED GLOBAL FAB SPENDING 2022-2027 39
FIGURE 3.12: FAB EXPANSIONS WITHIN THE US 40
FIGURE 3.13: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS OF THE WORLD 41
FIGURE 3.14: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING (US$ M) AND Y-O-Y CHANGE 42
FIGURE 3.15: ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP OVERVIEW 43
FIGURE 3.16: DRAM TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP OVERVIEW 44
FIGURE 3.17: 3D NAND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP OVERVIEW 45
FIGURE 3.18: INTEL OHIO PLANT SITE AS OF FEB. 2024 46
FIGURE 3.19: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS 49
FIGURE 3.20: TECHCET WORLDWIDE MATERIALS FORECAST ($M USD) 50
FIGURE 4.1: SILICON WAFER AREA SHIPMENT FORECAST 55
FIGURE 4.2: SILICON EPI WAFER AREA SHIPMENT FORECAST 56
FIGURE 4.3: SILICON WAFER QUARTERLY SHIPMENT FORECAST 57
FIGURE 4.4: SILICON WAFER REVENUE FORECAST 58
FIGURE 4.5: SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER SHARE OF 300MM CAPACITY 59
FIGURE 4.6: 300MM SILICON WAFER SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST 65
FIGURE 4.7: 200MM SILICON WAFER SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST 66
FIGURE 4.8: 200MM SILICON WAFER SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST, CHINA IMPACT 67
FIGURE 4.9: 300MM SILICON EPI WAFER SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST 68
FIGURE 4.10: WORLDWIDE SILICON WAFER ASP TREND 69
FIGURE 4.11:NWORLDWIDE SILICON WAFER ASP TREND BY DIAMETER 70
FIGURE 4.12: SPECIALTY/EMERGING SILICON WAFER APPLICATIONS 74
FIGURE 4.13: 2023 SILICON WAFER REVENUE SHARE BY REGION (COMPANY HQ) 75
FIGURE 5.1: 2023 SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE BY REVENUE 83
FIGURE 5.2: SILICON WAFER MAKERS’ QUARTERLY COMBINED SALES (INCLUDES SHIN ETSU, SUMCO, GLOBALWAFERS, SILTRONIC, AND SK SILTRON) 85
FIGURE 5.3: SHIN ETSU CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS 86
FIGURE 5.4: #2 SUMCO CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS 87
FIGURE 5.5: GLOBALWAFERS CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS 88
FIGURE 5.6: SILTRONIC CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS 89
FIGURE 5.7: SK SILTRON CURRENT QUARTER FINANCIALS 90
FIGURE 5.8: AN AERIAL VIEW OF SILTRONIC’S BURGHAUSEN FACILITY 94
FIGURE 6.1: POLYSILICON DEMAND SEMICONDUCTOR VS. PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 100
FIGURE 6.2: POLYSILICON DEMAND FORECAST FOR SEMICONDUCTOR SILICON WAFERS (SEMICONDUCTOR APPLICATIONS) 101
FIGURE 6.3: UFLPA ENFORCEMENT METRICS SINCE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ACT 108
FIGURE 6.4: PRICE TREND OF PV POLYSILICON 112
FIGURE 8.1: SIC WAFERING 203
TABLES
TABLE 1.1: SILICON WAFER GROWTH OVERVIEW 10
TABLE 3.1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES 25
TABLE 3.2: WORLD BANK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (JANUARY 2024) 26
TABLE 3.3: BATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLE (BEV) REGIONAL TRENDS 33
TABLE 3.4: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES MARKET SPENDING 2023 37
TABLE 4.1: ESTIMATED 300MM SILICON SHARE BY SUPPLIER 59
TABLE 4.2: SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER MANUFACTURING LOCATIONS 60
TABLE 4.3: OVERVIEW OF ANNOUNCED 2023/2024 SILICON WAFER SUPPLIER INVESTMENTS 62
TABLE 4.4: REGIONAL SILICON WAFER MARKETS 76
TABLE 4.5: REGIONAL SILICON WAFER MARKETS, CONTINUED 77
TABLE 5.1: MOST RECENT QUARTERLY WAFER SUPPLIER SALES (IN LOCAL REPORTING CURRENCY) 84
TABLE 6.1: ESTIMATED 2023 POLYSILICON SUPPLIER RANKING 102
TABLE 6.2: SEMICONDUCTOR–GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS 103
TABLE 8.1: OVERVIEW OF ANNOUNCED 2023 WAFER SUPPLIER INVESTMENTS 197
TABLE 8.2: OVERVIEW OF ANNOUNCED 2023 WAFER SUPPLIER INVESTMENTS, CONTINUED 198
TABLE 8.3: CHINA WAFER SUPPLIER 300 MM STATUS 199
TABLE 8.4: CHINA WAFER SUPPLIER 300 MM STATUS, CONTINUED 200
TABLE 8.5: CHINA WAFER SUPPLIER 200 MM STATUS 201
TABLE 8.6: ESTIMATED 200 MM WAFER CAPACITY CHINA SUPPLIERS 202
TABLE 8.7: EG POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS IN CHINA 204
Press Release
June 20, 2024
Silicon Wafers High Growth Now Uncertain
Excess inventory causing concerns and upturn in orders not yet realized
San Diego, CA, June 20, 2024:
TECHCET — the advisory firm providing materials market information for semiconductor supply chain resilience — previously forecasting a 6% increase for Silicon Wafers in 2024, is now seeing a hurdle to growth. “Excess inventory of silicon wafers held by chip makers over the past 9 months has been surprising everyone,” stated Lita Shon-Roy, TECHCET’s CEO/President. SOI Wafers, although not immune to this trend, are less likely to be impacted in the same way. Revenue and shipment growth for 2024 is currently unclear. However, shipments will undoubtedly be less than overall wafer starts (chip production) experienced by device fabricators.
Utilization rates have been down but are expected to rise over the next two quarters. “Regardless, prices for 300mm wafers are trending upward generally as the result of LTAs,” states Mike Walden, Senior Director at TECHCET. Meanwhile, there is concern about potential oversupply for 200mm wafers, primarily because China-based suppliers continue to increase output. Additionally, one leading supplier has decided to discontinue production of wafers 150mm in diameter and smaller by 2025, based upon evolution within the wafer market.
Trade tensions between China and the US are continuing to escalate, which may have profound implications on the semiconductor market and the silicon wafer industry. For instance, the China market may eventually be lost as they continue to push hard to create a self-sufficient silicon wafer industry. Foreign (non-China) wafer makers will eventually get pushed out of the China market by these domestic sources. This is already happening with 200mm wafers and is likely to happen with 300mm wafers as China becomes more successful at 300mm silicon wafer production, perhaps in another 3-5 years. NSIG’s Zing Semiconductor is investing over $1.8B to double its capacity, targeting an eventual output of 1.2M 300mm wafers per month, a clear indication of the potential shift in the market dynamics.
The newly released TECHCET Critical Materials Reports(TM) on Silicon Wafers contains details on market and technology trends and supplier profiles.
