「Flash Memory Component Forecast - フラッシュメモリ用部品 - 四半期予測 (CS200CF)」はフラッシュメモリ部品市場に関する情報やデータを年4回アップデートしています。最新版の詳細につきましては、データリソースまでお問合せください。
The study analyses quarterly the production of floating gate and 3D Flash memory components plus XPoint memory. The Flash components are segmented by capacity for NOR, MLC NOR, serial NOR, Combo (NOR + xRAM), and into NAND, MLC NAND, TLC NAND, Combo (NAND + xRAM), 3D MLC NAND, 3D TLC NAND and XPoint. Forecasts are provided annually five years for revenue, units, and ASPs. Historical results are compiled from the Flash Memory Reporting Association (FMRA) that collects the quarterly shipments from the top Flash manufacturers. Vendor market shares are projected quarterly for the current year..
フラッシュメモリ用部品 - 四半期予測 - 2009年第2四半期レポート
Flash Memory Component Forecast - 2Q 2009
この調査レポートは、フラッシュメモリの2009年第1四半期出荷台数を定量化し、2009年の四半期毎ベンダ市場シェアを予測しています。
また、2009年におけるNOR型、NAND型、NOR型シリアル、各フラッシュメモリベンダごとの市場を予測しています。
Key Findings
Flash memory is resilient especially in its capability to be reset or reprogrammed. Understandably it is not so easy to reprogram the Flash market itself. Although, at the end of the second quarter 2009 we are seeing a type of resetting of the semiconductor industry and maybe the economy as it begins the climb back to recovery. In the last few months there has been too much ‘doom and gloom’ as the memory market went through its worst market downturn ever, and the world economy suffered from the most widespread financial upheaval since the ‘Great Depression’ of the 1920’s. Most people are moving on with their lives in the second quarter and are not dwelling on the impacts of the ‘Great Recession’ or if the restructuring of flawed markets is occurring, they just want to know if the market is beginning its rebound.
Although, DRAM has experienced ‘boom-bust’ memory cycles for decades, Flash is now facing these similar patterns, but compounded. Currently, the Flash market is in the process of resetting itself by reducing supply, which has resulted in increasing prices but now the Flash market is in a dilemma as to how to position itself for the recovery. With consumers reacting to the poor economy, they have been saving and are not buying much, so when the news that the market has hit bottom arrives will the consumers trust it and begin to consume again. Or will they wait for more jobs to be created and then consumers will return to consuming. Once this occurs will they be resetting their own consumption patterns at a lower or different pattern than before. As consumers return to the market will they buy enough Flash to sustain Flash production this year and in the next couple of years and will the Flash market be able to react to the new market applications and be able to produce enough.
This report quantifies the 1Q 2009 Flash memory shipments and projects the quarterly market shares by vendor for 2009. In addition, the report lists the 2009 annual projections by vendor for NOR, NAND, and serial NOR. Although, the Flash market produced $20.4 billion in 2008, the recession has hit the Flash market hard in 2009 whereby the Flash vendors reduced production capacity by 18.5% in 1Q 2009. Last quarter’s Flash memory component forecast projected 2009 revenues to be $17.5 billion for both NAND and NOR. Based on the 1Q Flash shipments the revenue decline was not as drastic since the NAND ASPs increased substantially. Consequently, the revised 2009 Flash revenues are estimated to be $18.4 billion. Looking forward the Flash market should gradually recover as consumer demand returns and Flash computing develops in SSDs. The NAND market will have relatively flat revenues from 2008-2010, since the higher ASPs offset the temporary production cutbacks and then declined slightly as production increased in the latter half of 2009 and 2010. Included in this forecast from 2007-2015 are revenues, units, ASPs, and Mbits projected by density for NAND, MLC NAND, 3b/c and 4b/c NAND, NOR , MLC NOR, serial NOR, EcoRAM, Combo NOR and Combo NAND. In addition, the FMRA (Flash Memory Reporting Association) results are tabulated for 2009 by quarter to show greater detail for each product’s shipments. This second quarter projection discusses the drivers and inhibitors influencing the Flash market and when and how the recovery will return.
The Flash market is currently forecast to have negative growth in 2009 and then modified growth through 2015, with a percentage growth rate that starts in single digits to the twenties as it oscillates in the remaining years. Hopefully, 2009 is the year of bottoming out where consumers can retrench and start over. Whether they will continue to buy throughout the next year even in the midst of the 'Great recession' will make the difference in stimulating enough demand to rejuvenate the semiconductor markets. This revitalized demand should result in a gradual revenue growth through 2015 producing Flash Revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.4% whereby 2015 Flash revenues should generate $33.36 billion.
Analysis and Reporting Methodology
The Flash Memory Component Forecast . quarterly for 2Q 2009 provides revenue, units, and Average Selling Prices (ASP) by density for NOR, MLC NOR, Serial NOR, EcoRAM, Combo (Flash + xRAM) NOR, Combo NAND, NAND, and MLC NAND Flash. Quarterly forecasts by density are presented for 2008, 2009, and 2010, while annual forecasts extend from 2007 through 2015. The Flash units forecast were compiled and modified from the Flash Applications and Markets bottoms up forecast and latter based on supplier inputs, while the pricing has been adjusted quarterly.
Web-Feet Research (WFR) utilizes three levels of research in this report. Flash memory manufacturers were surveyed to obtain their respective Flash component OEM, distributor, and large contract prices. Each supplier’s input was consolidated and averaged with the other manufacturer reported prices. The quarterly Flash memory market forecast was compared with the Semiconductor Industry Association/World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (SIA/WSTS) bluebook totals for the 1Q 2009 revenue and unit breakouts by density for Flash components only.
For the quarterly and annual forecasts, Web-Feet Research uses the Flash Memory Reporting Association (FMRA) Flash component and Flash combo (Flash + xRAM) device shipments. Each of the Flash manufacturers were asked to provide Flash component and Flash combo revenue and units by each density and segmented into NOR and NAND categories. The main purpose in establishing the FMRA is to provide the Flash industry with more accurate and detailed Flash reporting in covering all densities of Flash (256Kbit-64Gbit), segmenting the Flash into NOR and NAND markets, and listing separately the Flash combo shipments.
The FMRA results are compiled from seventeen of the top Flash vendors and identify the Flash revenue by each density and type of Flash as well as the Flash Combo revenue. Sharp and Renesas are nearly out of the Flash market, so nothing is forecast for either company. Powerchip Semiconductor Corporation (PSC) is selling a small amount of their own product separate from their prior obligated shipments to Renesas, so they are included in the list of Flash vendors. A small amount of Flash NROM component shipments arose from the Spansion and SMIC production relationship, which is sold through SMIC in China in 2009.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents iii
List of Figures iv
List of Tables v
1. Executive Summary
2. Methodology
3. Flash Memory Market Forecast
4. Flash Memory Reporting Association
4.1. FMRA Quarterly Rankings
5. Flash Revenue Forecasts
5.1. Flash Revenue Shipments by Density
6. Flash Unit Shipment Forecasts
6.1. Flash Unit Shipments by Density
7. Flash Average Selling Prices (ASPs)
7.1. Flash ASPs by Density
8. Flash Megabit Shipments (Mbit)
8.1. Flash Mbits by Density
9. Appendix A
10. Appendix B: Biography
11. Appendix C: About WFR
