Summary
この調査レポートでは、2025-2045年の電気・燃料電池バス市場について詳細に調査・分析しています。
主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）
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市場概要
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バス用バッテリー
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BEBSの熱管理
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バス用電気モーター
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充電インフラとバス向け技術
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燃料電池電気バス
Report Summary
Buses are the most common form of public transport in the world and are integral to public transport networks. In 2023, around 330,000 new bus and coach vehicles were produced. In most regions, these are primarily diesel, which not only contributes to CO₂ emissions but reduces air quality, especially in the most dense urban regions.
The global electrification of bus fleets is gaining increasing momentum around the globe after initially being confined to the Chinese market. IDTechEx research indicates that around 60,000 electric buses were sold in 2023 and that by 2045 this number will reach 190,000 annually. This report unpacks the factors that will drive this growth and gives in depth regional assessments into market trends and players. Technological innovation is also explored, with the latest developments in Li-ion batteries for buses, cathode chemistry trends, electric motors, fuel cells and charging infrastructure.
Global sales snapshot - China first and the rest of the world follows
Global electric bus sales peaked in 2016 and have endured a period of decline. Regions other than China are now driving renewed growth. Source: IDTechEx
Global sales of electric buses began at scale in the early 2010s, but the market has until recently been entirely dominated by China. A period of explosive growth helped in part by generous subsidies led to a peak of almost 120,000 sales in 2016. In the following years, a combination of subsidy withdrawal and saturation of tier-1 cities has caused sales in China to decline and then plateau. The rest of the world is only now following suit, with the European market leading the way.
Global electric bus sales in all regions except China. Strong growth can be seen, particularly in the Europe + UK market. Source: IDTechEx
Market overview - increasingly competitive and diverse.
There is a wide range of players in the electric bus space, making it an increasingly competitive market. In Europe, pure electric bus startups are now competing with the late entry of legacy bus OEMs (those who have a history manufacturing diesel buses) and Chinese imports. In 2023 the leading holder of market share was MAN, which held 16% of the available market share. Operators have a wealth of choice in terms of suppliers and models - and for many the challenge remains the higher upfront costs, with an electric bus being twice as expensive as an equivalent diesel bus. This report also provides current market analysis of China, the US, Latin America, Korea, Japan and India.
The segmented European electric bus market includes domestic OEMs, pure electric bus startups, and Chinese exports (in red). Source: IDTechEx
Battery electric or fuel cell?
In this report, IDTechEx studies the comparative deployments and merits of the main candidates for electrification:
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BEB (Battery electric buses), fully battery electric with only onboard batteries. The most successful form of electrification with high drivetrain efficiencies. Improvements in battery storage and route optimization are allowing BEBs to succeed on real-world routes and they are no longer 'pilot projects' but in active service. IDTechEx predicts continued strong growth for BEBs as they become the dominant replacement for diesel buses, especially in the city bus sector.
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FCEB (Fuel cell electric buses), on-board battery combined with a fuel cell stack and onboard hydrogen storage. Compared with BEBs they bring the promise of greater range and quicker refueling, but the high component cost and difficulty of sourcing cheap green hydrogen remain a consistent challenge. IDTechEx research shows much lower market penetration vs BEBs, with some operators even abandoning FCEBs in favor of BEBs. However, IDTechEx does expect the greater range of FCEBs to afford the technology some share of the long-distance coach market where opportunity charging is limited. Certain regions (such as Japan and South Korea) that have ambitious hydrogen policies will also see stronger growth of FCEBs.
This report provides in-depth analysis of case studies, TCO considerations and quantitative and qualitative benchmarking on electric bus technologies. Key questions are answered such as what battery energy density improvements will mean for range, and what are the infrastructure costs associated with fleet electrification. CO₂ emissions of FCEBs by the color of hydrogen used, and real-world efficiency and consumption data are explored and disseminated by IDTechEx in this report.
Batteries: capacity, chemistry choices and suppliers
The bus market is comparatively smaller in GWh volume demand than other sectors such as passenger cars, and this impacts economic decisions around battery pack sourcing. Whilst for the largest volume segments, vertical integration reduces costs and increases supply chain security, many bus OEMs do not require packs in the volume to warrant the investment required for in-house battery production. There are a few exceptions (BYD and MAN), which leverage demand in other sectors to reach the required demand. For most OEMs, battery packs are outsourced and this report includes information on the various battery pack suppliers and benchmarks products by capacity (kWh), chemistry (LFP/NMC) and energy density (kWh/kg).
IDTechEx has tracked the maximum available battery configuration for various electric bus models by release year, and a clear trend of increasing capacity and models can be seen. This has been driven by two main factors, increases in energy density (kWh/kg) meaning more energy can be stored in the same weight battery, and decreasing pack prices. The overall result for electric buses is increased range and options for routes.
Battery pack capacity (kWh) has been increasing on average in the global bus market. The number of models on offer has also increased. Source: IDTechEx
Electric motors
Replacing diesel ICE (internal combustion engines) with electric motors presents new opportunities and challenges for electric buses. This report explores the various technical options for motors (PMSM, ACIM, etc) and the various configurations they can be integrated into an electric bus. Tier-1 supplier analysis and supply relationships are also studied, with benchmarking of commercial traction motors by power and torque density.
Market outlook
In this report, IDTechEx combines extensive in-depth market data, first-hand interviews with industry players, and attendance at global events to assess, quantify and forecast the global electric bus market. This report contains granular forecasts for the global electric bus market up to 2045 including:
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Sales by region (China, Europe, USA, India, RoW)
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Sales by drivetrain (FCEB, BEB)
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Annual revenue (US$ billions)
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Annual battery demand (GWh)
With a forecast market value of USD$180 billion predicted by 2045, this report informs and advises on this growing but competitive aspect of transport electrification.
Key Aspects
This report provides commercial and technical market intelligence on the electric bus industry, including:
Global Historic Sales
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Current market is contextualised through historic data on sales back to 2015, with regional granularity across China, Europe, India, USA and RoW.
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Regional policies and key market players are discussed and analysed, with sales breakdowns by OEMs across major regions.
Batteries for Electric Buses
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Key Li-ion technologies and cathode chemistries for bus onboard energy storage.
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Regional market shares by chemistry, and key supplier/OEM relationships.
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Cycle life assessment, and market trends for battery sizing among current models.
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Key developments in battery pack providers
Thermal Management for Electric Buses
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Overview of fire protection materials for bus batteries.
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Onboard HVAC technological developments
Electric Motors for Buses
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Key traction technologies, ACIM and PMSM and performance ranking for buses.
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Power density benchmarking, and market shares.
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Motor mounting (central vs eAxle) analysis
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Key tier 1 motor suppliers, and OEM relationships.
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Motor cooling strategies
Charging Infrastructure and Technologies for Buses
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Overview of charging levels and key technologies
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Battery Swapping, Pantograph charging, Wireless charging and plug-in charging for buses.
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Opportunity and depot charging.
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Infrastructure CAPEX costs.
Fuel Cell Electric Buses
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Fuel Cell technology overview, key market players.
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System efficiency and well-to-wheel carbon emissions.
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Fuel cell electric bus consumption benchmarking.
Plug-in Hybrid Buses and Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Buses.
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Overview of further options for net-zero buses.
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Hydrogen internal combustion vs fuel cell efficiency comparisons.
Benchmarking and Cost Analysis.
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TCO analysis, purchase costs and operational costs.
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Real world efficiency and consumption comparisons, infrastructure and fuel costs.
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Vehicle range and route suitability. Outlook for fuel cell buses as battery energy density improves.
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Table of Contents
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1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
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1.1. |
Report Overview |
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1.2. |
Executive Summary (1) |
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1.3. |
Executive Summary (2) |
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1.4. |
Global Bus and Coach Vehicle Production |
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1.5. |
Categorization of Drivetrain Terms |
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1.6. |
Electric Buses - a Global Outlook |
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1.7. |
Bus Categories and Electrification Rates |
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1.8. |
Electric Buses - Key Players |
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1.9. |
Electric Bus OEMs and Market Shares in China |
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1.10. |
Electric Bus OEMs and Market Shares in Europe |
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1.11. |
Battery Capacity in Buses Increasing |
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1.12. |
Regional Battery Sizing Trends |
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1.13. |
Chinese Market Favours LFP, European Market More Mixed |
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1.14. |
Motor Mounting - Central or Axle Mounted |
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1.15. |
Motor Benchmarking and Metrics for Buses |
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1.16. |
Forecast Commentary - Regional |
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1.17. |
Electric Bus Sales Forecast to Regionally Diversify by 2045 |
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1.18. |
Electric Bus Sales Historic & Forecast By Region - 2015-2045 |
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1.19. |
Forecast Commentary - Drivetrain |
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1.20. |
Electric Bus Sales by Drivetrain 2015-2045 |
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1.21. |
Battery Demand and Market Value 2024-2045 |
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2. |
INTRODUCTION TO ELECTRIC BUSES |
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2.1. |
Overview |
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2.1.1. |
The Core Driver for Transport Decarbonization |
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2.1.2. |
Urban Air Quality |
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2.1.3. |
Fossil Fuel Vehicle Sales Bans |
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2.1.4. |
Low and Ultra Low Emissions Zones |
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2.1.5. |
TCO Considerations: Zero Emission Buses |
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2.2. |
Options for Reduced Emissions Buses |
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2.2.1. |
Replacement for ICE - Alternative Drivetrains |
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2.2.2. |
Bus Categories and Electrification |
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2.2.3. |
Transit and City Buses - an Overview |
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2.2.4. |
Coaches - an Overview |
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2.2.5. |
Overview of Bus Types and Specific Challenges to Electrification |
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2.2.6. |
Categorization of Drivetrain Terms |
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2.2.7. |
Options for Reduced Emissions Buses |
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3. |
MARKET OVERVIEW |
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3.1. |
Overview |
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3.1.1. |
Global Markets for Alternative Drivetrain Buses - a Summary |
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3.1.2. |
Global Bus and Coach Vehicle Production |
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3.1.3. |
Global Overview of Bus Fleets |
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3.1.4. |
Electric Buses - a Global Outlook |
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3.1.5. |
Regional Takeaways for Key Regions - (1) |
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3.1.6. |
Regional Takeaways for Key Regions - (2) |
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3.1.7. |
Selected Other Global Developments in Electric Buses |
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3.2. |
Asia - China, Japan, India and South Korea Market Overview |
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3.2.1. |
Historic Sales of E-buses in China 2012-2023 |
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3.2.2. |
NEV Bus Sales - BEB, PHEB and FCEBs |
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3.2.3. |
Electric Bus OEMs and Market Shares in China |
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3.2.4. |
China - Increasingly Export Led |
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3.2.5. |
Chinese Fuel Cell Bus OEM Market Share 2023 |
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3.2.6. |
Japan - No Domestic Production & Low Imports |
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3.2.7. |
Japan - BYD Order Cancelled Due to Chemical Concerns |
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3.2.8. |
Japan - Fuel Cell Targets |
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3.2.9. |
South Korea - Domestic vs Foreign Buses |
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3.2.10. |
South Korea - Continued FCEB Interest |
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3.2.11. |
South Korea - FCEB Targets |
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3.2.12. |
India |
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3.2.13. |
India - a Large Potential Market with Low Penetration Rates |
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3.3. |
Europe + UK Market Overview |
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3.3.1. |
UK - Fleet Sales Bounce Back Driven by Electric |
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3.3.2. |
UK - ZEBRA and Fleet Shares by Drivetrain |
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3.3.3. |
European Union - an Overview |
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3.3.4. |
Bus Registrations, FCEB, BEB, PHEV in Europe, 2013-2023 |
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3.3.5. |
European Union - Policy Directives |
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3.3.6. |
European Union - Registrations By Region, 2023 |
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3.3.7. |
European Union - Disparity Between City Buses and Coaches |
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3.3.8. |
Electric Bus OEMs and Market Shares in Europe |
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3.3.9. |
European Union, Market Leaders |
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3.3.10. |
Key Manufacturers in Europe - MAN and Solaris Emerge Strongly From 2023 |
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3.3.11. |
European Union - Domestic Manufacturers on the Rise |
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3.3.12. |
European Union - Fuel Cell Bus Market |
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3.3.13. |
EU JIVE 2 Targets |
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3.3.14. |
EU JIVE 2 - Assessment, Low Bar Targets Not Met |
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3.3.15. |
Van Hool's Exit of the City Bus Market |
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3.3.16. |
Cancelled Orders for Hydrogen City Buses |
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3.4. |
America's Market Overview |
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3.4.1. |
US Market - Overview |
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3.4.2. |
US Market - Bankruptcy of Proterra |
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3.4.3. |
US Market - Challenging Financial Environment |
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3.4.4. |
US Regulatory Landscape |
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3.4.5. |
Transitioning the US Fleet to Zero Emission Buses |
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3.4.6. |
The Cost of US Bus Fleet Transition to Zero Emission |
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3.4.7. |
Latin America - Strong BEB sales |
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3.4.8. |
Latin America - Megacities Drive Growth |
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4. |
BATTERIES FOR BUSES |
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4.1. |
Overview |
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4.1.1. |
Batteries For Buses - Summary |
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4.1.2. |
Li-ion Batteries |
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4.1.3. |
Lithium battery chemistries |
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4.1.4. |
Cathode Comparisons - an Overview |
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4.1.5. |
Cathode - Performance Comparison |
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4.1.6. |
Specific Requirements for Buses |
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4.1.7. |
Pack Location |
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4.1.8. |
Lifetime of Buses - UK Data |
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4.1.9. |
Average Annual Distance |
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4.1.10. |
Differing Cycle Life Requirements for EVs |
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4.2. |
Battery Sizing |
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4.2.1. |
Battery Sizing - a Summary |
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4.2.2. |
Battery Capacity in Buses |
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4.2.3. |
Battery Sizing for Citybuses and Coaches |
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4.2.4. |
Bus Drivetrain Efficiency |
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4.2.5. |
Drag Coefficient, Speed and Body Design |
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4.2.6. |
Efficiencies at Low Speeds |
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4.2.7. |
City Bus Consumption is the Highest |
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4.2.8. |
Battery Size for Buses - Overnight Charging vs End-line Charging |
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4.2.9. |
Long Haul Coach Travel Battery Sizing |
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4.2.10. |
Manufacturer Consumption Claims |
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4.2.11. |
Battery Sizing Trends - Market Analysis |
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4.3. |
Battery Pack Suppliers |
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