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Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft 2024-2044: Technologies, Players


エアタクシー電動垂直離着陸(eVTOL)航空機 2024-2044年:技術、プレーヤー

この調査レポートは、さまざまな電動垂直離着陸(eVTOL)航空機の設計アーキテクチャの長所と短所の評価から、航空グレードのバッテリー、高度な電気モーターと推進システム、複合材料、eVTOL地上インフラなど... もっと見る

 

 

出版社 出版年月 電子版価格 ページ数 言語
IDTechEx
アイディーテックエックス
2024年3月19日 US$7,000
電子ファイル(1-5ユーザライセンス)
ライセンス・価格情報
注文方法はこちら
378 英語

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Summary

この調査レポートは、さまざまな電動垂直離着陸(eVTOL)航空機の設計アーキテクチャの長所と短所の評価から、航空グレードのバッテリー、高度な電気モーターと推進システム、複合材料、eVTOL地上インフラなどの主要な実現技術における機会に関するより詳細な情報まで、包括的な詳細を提供しています。
 
主な掲載内容(目次より抜粋)
  • 航空宇宙サプライヤー エフトール航空機活動
  • 旅のユースケースと最適化
  • イドテックスのコスト分析
  • エフトールアーキテクチャ
  • エフトール開発支援プログラム
  • OEM市場プレーヤー
  • エフトール用バッテリー
  • エフトールの充電基準
  • 燃料電池
  • 電気モーター
  • 複合材料&軽量化
 
Report Summary
Taxiing for take-off: The flying cab in your future
IDTechEx's new report "Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft 2024-2044: Technologies, Players" is intended to help companies understand the exciting emerging urban air mobility (UAM) market. This report provides comprehensive detail, from an assessment of the pros and cons of the different electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft design architectures, through to more nuanced detail on opportunities in key enabling technologies, such as aviation grade batteries, advanced electric motors and propulsion systems, composite materials and eVTOL ground infrastructure. Along with information and insight into the eVTOL air taxi market this report contains IDTechEx's 20-year outlook for eVTOL air taxi sales, market revenue, battery demand and battery market revenue.
 
Although "flying taxis" are not yet part of our daily lives, the technology is advancing, regulators are developing certification pathways, and the public is intrigued. Airlines, airports, and aerospace companies are incorporating new types of passenger transport into their plans. Meanwhile, automotive OEMs and others in the broader mobility ecosystem are carefully following developments related to eVTOL aircraft, knowing that they could provide a new sustainable option for passenger transport at the urban and regional level.
 
IDTechEx analysis of air taxi / passenger drone operations within Urban Air Mobility (UAM) suggests that there are frequently talked about areas for air taxi deployment which simply do not look viable, offering commuters no perceivable benefit at a greater expense. However, IDTechEx's research also indicates applications where eVTOL aircraft could provide a faster, more direct, and flexible journey, at a lower cost than competing transport modes. It is this potential which has attracted the attention of huge companies both inside and outside the aviation industry and stirred major investment into this nascent market.
 
The advanced air mobility ecosystem will power a new value chain. Source: IDTechEx
 
Indeed, many of the world's largest aerospace and automotive companies are ramping up their interest in eVTOL aircraft, recognising it as a potentially disruptive new transport mode. The major aerospace suppliers RTX Corporation, GE, SAFRAN, and Honeywell, are all investing in eVTOL related technologies including electric and hybrid-electric powertrain components, systems for autonomous flight and advanced air traffic management systems. Furthermore, composite material manufacturers like Toray and Hexcel have been working with OEMs on the advanced lightweight materials required for several facets of eVTOL design. The automotive industry is taking an interest as well, with Toyota, Hyundai, Stellantis, XPeng, Suzuki, and Honda, all funding, collaborating on, or conducting their own eVTOL projects.
 
Hundreds of concepts of eVTOL aircraft have been introduced in recent years, however very few of them have actually flown, and even fewer have any outlook for certification, commercial launch, or operations at scale. Some handful of eVTOL companies hope to receive regulatory certification for their eVTOLs by the middle of the decade. The years leading up to 2024 saw some OEMs finishing assembly of type-conforming eVTOLs, which is an important step on the path to achieving type certification required to begin commercial passenger operations. Full scale demonstrators have also been made by few OEMs. These demonstrators are usually larger and more advanced than scale models or prototypes, representing a significant step towards the eventual commercialization of eVTOL aircraft.
 
Main Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft Architectures. Source: IDTechEx.
 
In 2023, companies took steps forward with production facilities as well, announcing site specific plans. Manufacturers are also improving the chances of scale-up by taking steps to make production more efficient, which will enable more rapid production of serial aircraft and aircraft systems at lower cost. Those to market first will have the opportunity to be the face of this electrifying new market as a brand leader at the technological forefront.
 
Much of the focus for batteries has been on cost per energy storage (for example, dollar per kilowatt-hour). But for aviation, which fights a constant battle against gravity, the metric of energy density (watt-hour per kilogram) is even more essential. The industry must achieve the battery performance required to sustain electric vertical takeoff and landing. To enable this, battery density must nearly double from today's approximately 200 watt-hours per kilogram, and these batteries must achieve aviation-grade safety standards. This is critical to reduce the noise and cost of operating these vehicles.
 
This IDTechEx report consolidates some of the most interesting research from the past few years, focusing on the core challenges and opportunities in this emerging industry. While many hurdles remain for passenger advanced air mobility, entrepreneurs, incumbents, and other industry stakeholders are prepared to tackle them. The path to designing and certifying a viable aircraft can be technically challenging and capital intensive. Few sectors of aerospace are as fast-paced as advanced air mobility, but as market entry draws closer, the stakes are only rising. Certification progress, cash consumption and preparations for production and operation are coming to a head.
 
Key aspects
  • The report addresses key aspects including:
  • Distributed electric propulsion and the various eVTOL architectures possible
  • Analysis of multicopter eVTOL trips and faster vectored thrust eVTOL to ground based taxi service
  • TCO analysis based on autonomous/non-autonomous operations and average trip lengths
  • eVTOL battery requirements including suppliers
  • eVTOL motors and powertrains
  • Composite materials for eVTOL
  • eVTOL infrastructure requirements: vertiports and charging standards
  • eVTOL regulation and certification landscape
  • Hybrid and fuel cell eVTOLs
  • 20-year outlook for eVTOL air taxis: Unit sales by economy wealth, battery demand (GWh), Market revenue (US$)

 



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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1. IDTechEx Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft Report
1.2. What is an eVTOL Aircraft?
1.3. Main eVTOL Architectures
1.4. Why eVTOL Aircraft?
1.5. Huge Companies are Already Investing in eVTOL
1.6. eVTOL Getting Off the Ground
1.7. The eVTOL Market is Very Crowded
1.8. 2024 OEM Updates
1.9. eVTOLs Have Attracted Significant Commercial Interest
1.10. eVTOL OEMs are Attracting Large Funding
1.11. New Manufacturing Facilities and Production Plans
1.12. eVTOL OEMs will Have to Weather a Tougher Investor Climate
1.13. When will the First eVTOL Air Taxis Launch? Slipping Timelines as Market Entry Draws Closer
1.14. Air Taxi Services
1.15. Conclusions on Air Taxi Time Saving
1.16. eVTOL as an Urban Mass Mobility Solution?
1.17. Where is the eVTOL Air Taxi Advantage?
1.18. The Value of Autonomous Flight
1.19. eVTOL: Summary of Enabling Technologies
1.20. The Need for Component Improvements
1.21. eVTOL Battery Requirements
1.22. Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
1.23. Li-ion Timeline - Technology and Performance
1.24. eVTOL Motor / Powertrain Requirements
1.25. eVTOL Composite Material Requirements
1.26. eVTOL Infrastructure Requirements
1.27. Companies Developing Vertiports
1.28. Forecast Summary
1.29. eVTOL Air Taxi Sales Forecast 2020-2044 (Units)
1.30. eVTOL Air Taxi Battery Demand Forecast 2020-2044 (GWh)
1.31. eVTOL Battery Market Revenue Forecast (US$ million)
1.32. eVTOL Air Taxi Market Revenue Forecast (US$ billion)
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. What is an eVTOL Aircraft?
2.2. eVTOL Architectures
2.3. Distributed Electric Propulsion
2.4. The Dream of Urban Air Mobility
2.5. Advantages of UAM Networks
2.6. Advanced Air Mobility
2.7. eVTOL Applications
2.8. Air Taxi Services
2.9. Current General Aviation Aircraft
2.10. Why Helicopters are not Suitable for UAM
2.11. Range and Endurance Limitations of eVTOL
2.12. GAMA General Aviation Helicopter Sales and Market
2.13. Worldwide Helicopter Fleet
2.14. Helicopter OEMs
2.15. GAMA General Aviation Airplane Sales and Market Size
2.16. Top 5 General Aviation OEMs by Airplane Type
2.17. What is Making eVTOL Possible?
2.18. Why eVTOL Aircraft?
2.19. eVTOL Air Taxis: Much More than New Aircraft
2.20. Huge Companies are Already Investing in eVTOL
2.21. Air Mobility Funding
2.22. Market Outlook
2.23. Significant Challenges
2.24. Numerous Opportunities
2.25. NASA: UAM Challenges and Constraints
2.26. Key Issues for eVTOL Air Taxis
3. AEROSPACE SUPPLIERS EVTOL AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY
3.1. Aerospace Companies by Revenue
3.2. RTX Corp.
3.3. General Electric
3.4. SAFRAN
3.5. Rolls-Royce
3.6. Honeywell
4. JOURNEY USE-CASES & OPTIMISATION: WHERE EVTOL HAS AN ADVANTAGE
4.1. Will eVTOL Taxis Reduce Journey Time?
4.2. eVTOL Multicopter vs Robotaxi: 10km Journey
4.3. eVTOL vs Robotaxi: Example 10km Journey
4.4. eVTOL Multicopter vs Robotaxi: 40km Journey
4.5. eVTOL vs Robotaxi: Example 40km Journey
4.6. Multicopter eVTOL vs Robotaxi: 100km Journey
4.7. Vectored Thrust eVTOL vs Robotaxi: 100km Journey
4.8. eVTOL vs Robotaxi: Example 100km Journey
4.9. Important Factors for an Air Taxi Time Advantage
4.10. Conclusions on Air Taxi Time Saving
5. IDTECHEX COST ANALYSIS
5.1. TCO Analysis: eVTOL Taxi US$/50km Trip (Base Case)
5.2. eVTOL vs Helicopter Operating Cost
5.3. eVTOL Aircraft Upfront Cost
5.4. eVTOL Operational Fuel Cost Savings
5.5. The Value of Autonomous Flight
5.6. TCO vs Helicopters Uber Air US$/mile
5.7. Sensitivity to Battery Cost and Performance
5.8. Sensitivity to Upfront / Infrastructure Cost
5.9. Sensitivity to Average Trip Length
5.10. TCO Analysis: US$/15km Trip: Multicopter eVTOL Design
5.11. TCO US$/15km Autonomous Trip: Multicopter vs Base Case
6. EVTOL ARCHITECTURES
6.1. World eVTOL Aircraft Directory
6.2. Geographical Distribution of eVTOL Projects
6.3. Key Players: eVTOL Air Taxi
6.4. Main eVTOL Architectures
6.5. eVTOL Architecture Choice
6.6. eVTOL Multicopter / Rotorcraft
6.7. Multicopter: Flight Modes
6.8. Multicopter / Rotorcraft: Key Players Specifications
6.9. Benefits / Drawbacks of Multicopters
6.10. eVTOL Lift + Cruise
6.11. Lift + Cruise: Flight Modes
6.12. Lift + Cruise: Key Players Specifications
6.13. Benefits / Drawbacks of Lift + Cruise
6.14. Vectored Thrust eVTOL
6.15. Vectored Thrust: Flight Modes
6.16. eVTOL Vectored Thrust: Tiltwing
6.17. Tiltwing: Key Player Specifications
6.18. Benefits / Drawbacks of Tiltwing
6.19. eVTOL Vectored Thrust: Tiltrotor
6.20. Tiltrotor: Key Player Specifications
6.21. Benefits / Drawbacks of Tiltrotor
6.22. When will the First eVTOL Air Taxis Launch?
6.23. Manned Air Taxi eVTOL Test Flights
6.24. Unmanned Air Taxi eVTOL Model Test Flights
6.25. Range and Cruise Speed: Electric eVTOL Designs
6.26. Hover Lift Efficiency and Disc Loading
6.27. Hover and Cruise Efficiency by eVTOL Architecture
6.28. Complexity, Criticality & Cruise Performance
6.29. Comparison of eVTOL Architectures
7. PROGRAMS SUPPORTING EVTOL DEVELOPMENT
7.1.  

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