Adoption will largely be driven by TCO and not by regulation

 

The mining industry is responsible for 2-3% of all global CO2 emissions, with 40-50% of this coming from diesel combustion engines of mining vehicles. As mining is a relatively small greenhouse gas contributor - especially compared to on-road vehicles - it is no surprise that it has not seen many policies targeting decarbonization. The limited regulation that has been introduced in regions such as China and Canada does not provide the long-term governmental commitments that would be necessary to encourage an electric transition on its own.

 

Instead, a more potent incentive for adoption will come from total cost of ownership (TCO) savings. Mining machines have a wide range of possible duty cycles, but the most intense of those can require operating 20-hour days on average or even around the clock. These vehicles consume a lot of diesel in the process, which is both more expensive than electricity and subject to considerable price volatility. IDTechEx analysis highlights that a single 150-tonne haul truck will require over US$850,000 per year in fuel, and electrification could save over US$5.5 million in energy costs alone over the vehicle's lifetime. This, combined with the savings achieved through reduced maintenance, will comfortably exceed the additional costs of batteries and other electrical components. Since volumes of electric mining equipment are currently very small, there is lots of room for the premium associated with early electrification to fall. As it does the advantages of electric mining machines over diesel ones will only become more pronounced.

 

Electric haul trucks are coming

 

Haul trucks are amongst the most critical assets on any mine - as one of the most abundant mining vehicles globally as well as by far the largest, most expensive, and most emitting of all mining vehicles. The current global haul truck population emits 174 megatonnes of CO2 annually. The electrification of haul trucks will be key to achieving meaningful emissions reductions in the industry and assisting mining companies to meet their sustainability objectives.

 

Up to now, much of the effort in haul truck electrification has come from the mining companies themselves as well as independent retrofitters - working together to modify existing diesel machines with battery or fuel cell technology. However, OEMs are increasingly making their way into this space, taking an active part in the production of electric haul trucks by developing EV models of their existing vehicles in-house.

 

The large batteries needed for electric haul trucks are now sufficiently advanced and competitively priced to encourage OEM involvement and EV adoption. These batteries regularly exceed 1 MWh, with the largest ones approaching 2 MWh. The wide range of designs and chemistries battery suppliers are employing to meet the size and performance demands of electric haul trucks are covered in this report.

 

The two largest mining OEMs in the world, Caterpillar and Komatsu, both have electric haul trucks in the testing phase with aims for commercialization before 2030 - the technical details of which are available in this report. Recent partnerships and agreements have shown that, when the technology does eventually reach sufficient maturity for commercialization, there will be ample demand from mining companies to warrant mass production on the part of OEMs.

 

Underground mining EVs are here to stay

 

The electrification of underground mining vehicles (i.e. electric underground loaders and electric underground trucks) offers a couple of additional benefits on top of those provided by surface vehicles. First and foremost are the reduced ventilation requirements of electric underground vehicles, which can provide massive OPEX savings for mines. Heat, noise, vibrations, and emissions put out by diesel combustion engines are a bigger concern underground than on the surface, and electrification of underground machines can deliver significant improvements to miners' health and safety.

 

It is for these reasons that underground mining vehicles have been the predominant area of focus for mining electrification. The batteries of these vehicles top out at under 500 kWh, making them easier to electrify and commercialize than haul trucks. Electric underground trucks and electric underground loaders have been on the market for over half a decade now and have seen slow but steady adoption within that time. OEMs are now working on expanding their electric vehicle offerings to meet the market demand. This includes the electrification of heavier underground vehicles, with the largest existing models now weighing upwards of 55 tonnes unloaded - approaching the weight of even the heaviest diesel models. IDTechEx analysis shows that orders for electric underground vehicles have steadily increased, and they are expected to continue similarly moving forward.

 

This report brings together all these trends and more, highlighting the sea change that is coming to the global mining industry. The 20-year granular forecasts broken down by region and vehicle type provide critical insight into the key technologies fueling this transformation within the industry.

 

Key aspects

 

This report provides critical market intelligence about the electric mining vehicle industry in each of the six main vehicle types considered. This includes:

 

Context and technology fueling electrification of mining vehicles

 

Detailed analysis of major vehicle types

 

Market analysis