Summary
この調査レポートは、コンピューティングとコネクティビティの役割の変化について議論し、光学、ディスプレイ、センシング、ハプティクスなどの要素技術について詳細に調査・分析しています。
主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）
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VR/AR/MR入門
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市場予測
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XRアプリケーションとコンテンツ
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ヘッドセット
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コンポネント
Report Summary
Virtual, augmented, and mixed reality devices promise to revolutionize the way we interact, acting as key gateways to the metaverse. This report builds a picture of these technologies today, quantitively examining development trends to date and outlining both future directions and technical challenges. The changing role of computing and connectivity is discussed, with component technologies including optics, displays, sensing, and haptics analyzed.
Source IDTechEx
VR (Virtual Reality) replaces the real environment with the virtual, whereas AR (Augmented Reality) overlays content on top of the real world. MR (Mixed Reality)-capable AR devices blur the line between the real and digital worlds, with overlaid virtual content interacting with real objects. Collectively, these concepts are referred to as XR (eXtended Reality). The XR headset industry is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 13% between 2023 and 2033, but how will developments in XR device hardware and their use-cases support this?
VR - from toy to tool
VR has found its place as an enabler of telepresence and as a tool for design or visualization, but home gaming has been the key driver of the VR headset industry surpassing the multibillion-dollar mark. However, VR started life as a training tool and the same low-cost standalone devices that hastened adoption for gaming are finding significant use in industry to this end. In October 2021, Accenture ordered 60,000 Meta Quest 2 headsets to help ease onboarding of new recruits, marking a wider trend of employers looking for new ways to promote engagement with remote workforces.
This report discusses the ways emerging use-cases are affecting the design and product targeting of VR headsets. A key question addressed is how VR headset manufacturers are finding new ways to compete in the consumer space beyond the Meta-dominated gaming market.
AR - the future of mobile computing?
MR-capable AR headsets are hoped to one day fulfil the role the smartphone currently plays in our lives, yet most people today have only experienced AR through their smartphones. Attempts to crack the consumer AR headset market have proved extremely challenging. AR headsets have made a wider impact in professional usage, with clear use cases such as guiding workers around a warehouse, simplifying complex maintenance tasks, aiding complex surgery, and more. However, when targeting the general public, headset manufacturers must contend with social acceptability and privacy concerns - not to mention pricing their headsets to sell and demonstrating their value in daily life.
How might AR headsets find niches in the consumer space in the short-term? How will AR applications transition from the smartphone to headsets? How will AR devices compete with more established technologies, including VR headsets, in the longer term? Addressing these questions is a major focus of the report.
Componentry, computing, and connectivity
Many XR devices are now standalone, fully contained computing systems, with Qualcomm now offering a line of specialist XR SoCs (system-on-chips) to support this. However, more conventional computing systems remain ready for XR headsets to take advantage of. As the XR industry remains in a transitional time, an emerging category of XR devices shares computing load between onboard chips and external devices, using modern low-latency communication standards, particularly WiFi 6E, to achieve this wirelessly. As XR devices supplant these devices, a move towards mobile edge computing via 5G and its replacements is likely, with some XR SoCs already containing 5G antennas to support this. The evolution of XR devices from PC peripherals to fully-fledged computing devices is examined in IDTechEx's report.
Displays and optics define much of the user experience of XR devices, as well as setting many variables in their design. The report outlines the industry landscape for both important components and how key challenges holding back the XR industry - particularly the low-efficiency optics and displays used in AR devices - impact current devices and will be tackled in the future.
To blur the line between the real and the digital as strongly as possible, XR headsets must take in a huge range of data about the environment and their users. This report covers the range of sensors that are required to perform such diverse tasks as mapping out the user's location with cameras and track where the user is looking. Haptics add the dimension of touch to XR, deepening immersion and making interactions more natural. The integration of haptics into XR peripherals is detailed, and the ways in which haptics and sensing combine to facilitate new modes of interaction with created realities are outlined.
Historic trends in the XR industry hold the key to major questions
From IDTechEx's database of technical and pricing data for the majority of XR headsets released since 2010, the changing status of the industry is quantitively examined, with conclusions indicating the next decade of evolution. How have headsets competed with one another? What gaps could new entrants exploit? What can we expect from the next generation of XR headsets? The answers lie in examining the data in the context of IDTechEx's wider survey of the industry.
Comprehensive analysis and market forecasts
IDTechEx has been covering the AR/VR industry since 2015, staying close to the technical and market developments, interviewing key players worldwide, attending numerous conferences and delivering multiple consulting projects.
Our report assesses the VR/AR/MR market in considerable detail, evaluating the different constituent technologies, evolving use-cases, potential adoption barriers, and the difficulties of competing in this crowded space. The report includes multiple company profiles based on interviews with major players across the different technologies. We also develop granular 10-year market forecasts and assessments of the potential for success of the technologies covered.
Key aspects
This report provides the following information:
Technology trends & player analysis:
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An introduction to the augmented, mixed and virtual reality (AR/MR/VR) headset market, including analysis of key trends, expected market entrance from major players and assessment of the competitive landscape.
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Quantitative analysis of historic data on pricing and technical specifications for the AR/MR/VR headset industry, with conclusions on future development drawn.
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Assessment of the evolving applications for AR/MR/VR headsets for consumer and professional use, including an introduction to important software and standards shaping the industry, discussion of the metaverse, segmentation of key customers and applications for AR/MR/VR, analysis of the effects of new applications on headset designs and the new competitive niches in the market that emerging players are looking to exploit.
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Outline of trends in headset design and how these cater to various applications.
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In-depth technical discussion of computing componentry for AR/MR/VR, how AR/MR/VR devices interface with computers and the effects of new, low-latency communication standards including WiFi 6E and 5G.
Discussion of important componentry for AR/MR/VR devices and accessories:
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Optics, including VR lenses and waveguides/optical combiners for AR/MR.
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Displays including LCD, OLED, microLED and LBS (laser beam scanning).
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Sensing for positional and motion tracking.
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Sensing for eye tracking.
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Haptics for AR/MR/VR devices and their accessories.
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The future of XR input devices, unifying sensing and haptics.
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Company profiles, including interviews and SWOT analysis.
Market Forecasts & Analysis:
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10-year market forecasts for overall AR/MR/VR headset and accessory market.
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10-year granular market forecasts for component technologies of AR/MR/VR headsets, including displays, optics, optical sensors and haptics.
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Analysis and technical discussion of the potential winning technologies within these areas.
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Table of Contents
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1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
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1.1. |
List of acronyms |
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1.2. |
Companies profiled |
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1.3. |
What are VR, AR, MR and XR? |
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1.4. |
Established applications in VR, AR & MR |
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1.5. |
The "metaverse": the next big thing for XR? |
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1.6. |
Everyone wants a chunk of the metaverse: Big Tech entry into the AR/MR market |
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1.7. |
Classifying headsets |
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1.8. |
Lessons for consumer XR success |
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1.9. |
Comparing XR headset OEMs |
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1.10. |
The future of VR |
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1.11. |
VR headsets: revenue forecast |
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1.12. |
VR still has technical challenges to overcome |
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1.13. |
VR: status and outlook |
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1.14. |
AR headsets: revenue forecast |
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1.15. |
AR applications in 2023 vs. 2033 |
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1.16. |
Consumer AR devices face tough competition |
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1.17. |
AR headsets as a replacement for other smart devices |
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1.18. |
AR: price segmentation has only just stabilized |
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1.19. |
The newest AR devices emphasize simplicity |
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1.20. |
AR: Outlook by device type |
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1.21. |
AR: Outlook by computing type |
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1.22. |
Important XR-specific components |
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1.23. |
SWOT: XR computing solutions |
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1.24. |
Technological status of VR lens technologies |
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1.25. |
VR lenses: key technological takeaways |
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1.26. |
Status and market potential of optical combiners |
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1.27. |
AR combiners: key technological takeaways |
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1.28. |
The future of VR displays |
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1.29. |
Technological status of AR displays |
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1.30. |
Summary: Displays for AR |
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1.31. |
Controllers and sensing connect XR devices to the environment and the user |
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1.32. |
Summary: Positional and motion tracking for XR |
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1.33. |
Common forms for XR haptic devices |
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1.34. |
The status of haptics in XR |
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1.35. |
XR headsets: state of the market in 2022 |
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2. |
INTRODUCTION TO VR/AR/MR |
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2.1. |
Overview - What are VR, AR, MR and XR? |
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2.2. |
Defining terms |
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2.2.1. |
XR nomenclature - a source of confusion |
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2.2.2. |
MR and AR - spectrum or subset? |
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2.2.3. |
XR nomenclature used in this report |
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2.2.4. |
Nomenclature confusion: AR, MR and smartglasses |
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2.2.5. |
AR vs. MR: a blurring line |
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2.2.6. |
Further confusion: passthrough and see-through AR/MR |
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2.2.7. |
Old Terminology: PC-, Standalone, and Smartphone XR |
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2.2.8. |
Updating terminology: Standalone vs. Tethered |
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2.2.9. |
Why computing defines XR devices |
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2.3. |
The evolution of extended reality (XR) |
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2.3.1. |
AR, MR, VR and XR: a brief history |
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2.3.2. |
The 2010s to date - the age of XR begins |
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2.3.3. |
Gauging interest: Google search trends |
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2.3.4. |
AR, MR, and VR - market development |
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2.3.5. |
The consumer VR market is consolidating |
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2.3.6. |
Applications in VR, AR & MR |
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2.3.7. |
The "metaverse" - hype or the new shape of the internet? |
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2.4. |
Introduction to VR |
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2.4.1. |
VR introduction: an evolving landscape |
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2.4.2. |
VR: who has the intellectual property? |
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2.4.3. |
Types of VR headset: PC, standalone, smartphone/mobile |
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2.4.4. |
Timeline of modern VR |
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2.5. |
Introduction to AR and MR devices |
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2.5.1. |
What makes an AR device MR-capable? |
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2.6. |
Overview of major players |
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2.6.1. |
VR headsets: major OEMs |
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2.6.2. |
AR/MR headsets: major OEMs |
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2.6.3. |
Potential Big Tech entries to the AR market (I) |
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2.6.4. |
Potential Big Tech entries to the AR market (II) |
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2.6.5. |
ByteDance and Pico - late to the metaverse race? |
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2.6.6. |
The outlook for XR: Comparing the VR, AR and MR markets |
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3. |
MARKET FORECASTS |
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3.1. |
Overview |
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3.1.1. |
VR headset forecasting: important data sources |
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3.1.2. |
AR headset forecasting: important data sources |
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3.1.3. |
Methodology - device and component forecasts |
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3.1.4. |
AR and VR headsets: state of the market in 2022 |
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3.1.5. |
AR and VR headsets: Component technology choices |
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3.2. |
Forecasts: VR headsets and components |
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3.2.1. |
VR: Historic device sales |
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3.2.2. |
Data on PC VR headset usage for gaming |
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3.2.3. |
Evolution in VR headset adoption for gaming |
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3.2.4. |
Cyclic nature of VR hardware sales |
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3.2.5. |
Product release timelines: Oculus/Meta and HTC |
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3.2.6. |
VR headsets: volume forecast |
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3.2.7. |
VR headsets: revenue forecast |
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3.2.8. |
VR forecast data tables |
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3.2.9. |
VR headset forecasts: discussion |
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3.2.10. |
VR displays: technological trends |
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3.2.11. |
VR component forecasting: displays |
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3.2.12. |
VR lenses: the winning technological solutions |
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3.2.13. |
VR component forecasting: lenses |
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3.2.14. |
Eye tracking in VR: forecasting overall adoption rate |
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3.2.15. |
VR component forecasting: eye tracking |
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3.2.16. |
Eye tracking - discussing technology adoption |
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3.2.17. |
Prominent technical challenges to be addressed |
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3.2.18. |
VR forecasting: Summary and outlook (I) |
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3.2.19. |
VR forecasting: Summary and outlook (II) |
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3.3. |
Forecasts: AR headsets and components |
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3.3.1. |
AR: Defining terminology (I) |
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3.3.2. |
AR: Defining terminology (II) |
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3.3.3. |
What is not considered in forecasting |
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3.3.4. |
AR: Historic device sales |
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3.3.5. |
AR: Outlook by device type |
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3.3.6. |
AR: Outlook by computing type |
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3.3.7. |
AR headsets: volume forecast |
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3.3.8. |
AR headsets: revenue forecast |
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3.3.9. |
AR headsets: volume forecast (subdivided by computing type) |
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3.3.10. |
AR headsets: revenue forecast (subdivided by computing type) |
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3.3.11. |
AR forecast data tables |
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3.3.12. |
AR forecast data tables - subdivided by computing type |
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3.3.13. |
AR combiners: Promising technological candidates |
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