Summary
2023-2024 CMR ALD/CVD, HI K AND METAL PRECURSOR
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Provides market and technical trend information on organic and inorganic precursors, addressing CVD, ALD applications including high κ metal-oxides, barrier layers, metal interconnects, and capping layers, among others.
• Provides focused information for supply-chain managers, process integration and R&D directors, as well as business development and financial analysts
• Covers information about key suppliers, issues/trends in the electronics material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the electronics material segments
Description
This report provides market and technical trend information on inorganic gases and liquid CVD/ALD precursors (metal, metal oxide, high K, dielectric and SOD materials). For the last 20 years, there have been many research papers and patents published regarding ALD and CVD precursors specifically for the semiconductor industry. This report includes detail on the development path and roadmaps for new precursors and any current EHS and regulatory hurdles for these materials to enter into high volume manufacturing (HVM). Forecasts are provided on precursors of all types, with a focus is on the leading-edge front end of the line insulating and conductive materials, including high K, metal electrode, interconnect metallization, sacrificial layers, low-κ dielectrics, hard masks, mandrel, and etch stop layers. These process areas are of interest because of the high growth potential associated with leading-edge logic <45 nm, 28 nm to 10/7 nm nodes, and the future 5 & 3 nm nodes, as well as advanced DRAM and 3DNAND volatile and non-volatile memories.
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Table of Contents
TECHCET-CMR-ALDCVD-CMCF-060923CY
Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary 12
1.1 REGIONAL TRENDS – METAL PRECURSORS 13
1.2 REGIONAL TRENDS – DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS 14
1.3 REGIONAL TRENDS – TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET 15
1.4 PRECURSOR MARKET – HISTORICAL AND 5-YEAR FORECAST 16
1.5 CVD/ALD METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSOR REVENUE 2021 TO 2027 17
1.6 ASSESSMENT- METAL & HIGH-K 18
1.7 SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECAST – WF6 (UNTIL 2023) 19
1.8 CVD/ALD METAL PRECURSOR REVENUE 2021 TO 2027 (M USD) 20
1.9 ASSESSMENT DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS 21
1.10 CVD AND ALD EQUIPMENT MARKET 22
1.11 ANALYST ASSESSMENT – HI K & METAL PRECURSORS 23
1.11.1 ANALYST ASSESSMENT - HI K & METAL PRECURSORS, CONTINUED 24
1.11.2 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 25
2 Scope, Purpose, and Methodology 26
2.1 SCOPE 27
2.2 PURPOSE 28
2.3 METHODOLOGY 29
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 30
3 Semiconductor Industry Market Status & Outlook 31
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 32
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 34
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 35
3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 36
3.1.4 UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ESPECIALLY FOR 2023 – SLOWER TO
NEGATIVE SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUE GROWTH EXPECTED 37
3.2 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT 38
3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 39
3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 40
3.2.3 SERVERS / IT MARKET 43
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 44
3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 45
3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 47
3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 48
3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 49
3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 50
3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 51
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OVERVIEW 52
3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP PRODUCTION SCHEDULES? 53
3.5.2 LOGISTICS ISSUES EASED DOWN 54
3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2027 55
3.5.4 TECHCET’S MATERIAL FORECAST 56
4 Precursor Market Trends 57
4.1 MARKET TRENDS 58
4.1.1 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS 60
4.1.2 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS LOGIC 61
4.1.3 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS DRAM 62
4.1.4 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS NAND 63
4.2 SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS 64
4.2.1 WF6 DEMAND DRIVERS 66
4.2.2 WF6 MARKET DEMAND 67
4.2.3 WF6 MARKET DEMAND, CONTINUED 68
4.2.4 WF6 MARKET DEMAND – MO ALD IP FILING 69
4.2.5 WF6 MARKET DEMAND 70
4.3 SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS 71
4.3.1 SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS: HAFNIUM &
ZIRCONIUM 72
4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS – METAL PRECURSORS 73
4.4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS – METAL PRECURSORS 74
4.4.2 REGIONAL TRENDS – DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS 75
4.4.3 REGIONAL TRENDS – TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET 76
4.4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 77
4.5 CVD AND ALD EQUIPMENT MARKET 79
4.5.1 WFE FORECAST: ALL TYPES 80
4.5.2 WFE FORECAST: DEPOSITION, ETCH & CLEAN, LITHOGRAPHY,
METROLOGY ETC. 81
4.6 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS BY
DEVICE TYPE 82
4.6.1 GENERAL TREND LAST DECADE GOING FROM PVD & LPCVD TO
PECVD & ALD 83
4.6.2 ADVANCED LOGIC NODE HVM ESTIMATE 84
4.6.3 DRAM NODE HVM ESTIMATE 90
4.6.4 3D NAND NODE HVM ESTIMATE 93
4.6.5 SUMMARY OF OPPORTUNITIES BY DEVICE SEGMENT 98
4.7 SEMICONDUCTOR PROCESS & MATERIALS TRENDS 100
4.7.1 ETCH PROCESS BY DEVICE TYPE—ATOMIC LAYER ETCHING ALE 101
4.7.2 AREA SELECTIVE DEPOSITION 111
4.7.3 DIRECTED SELF ASSEMBLY (DSA) AND EUV 112
4.7.4 DIRECT SELF ASSEMBLY (DSA) AND EUV 113
4.7.5 2D TRANSITION METAL DICHALCOGENIDES (TMD) 114
4.7.6 DRY RESIST FOR EUV 115
4.7.7 UNDERLAYERS FOR EUV RESIST 119
4.7.8 OTHER APPLICATIONS – CHAMBER COATINGS BY ALD (Y2O3) 121
4.7.9 OTHER APPLICATIONS – OPTICS 122
4.8 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – ZIRCONIUM AND HAFNIUM 123
4.8.1 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – ZIRCONIUM AND HAFNIUM 124
4.8.2 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – TITANIUM 125
4.8.3 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – TUNGSTEN 126
4.8.4 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – TUNGSTEN 127
4.8.5 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – COBALT 128
4.8.6 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – RUTHENIUM 129
4.8.7 GREEN HOUSE GASES FROM SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION 130
4.8.8 EUV AND ENERGY 133
4.8.9 ASSESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ATOMIC LAYER
DEPOSITION (ALD) PROCESSES AND PATHWAYS TO LOWER IT 134
4.9 CHANGES IN STANDARD PACKAGING/VALVE TYPES 135
4.10 MARKET ASSESSMENT 136
5 Segment Market Statistics & Forecasts 137
5.1 PRECURSOR MARKET – HISTORICAL AND 5-YEAR FORECAST 138
5.1.1 CVD/ALD METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSOR REVENUE 2021 TO 2027 139
5.1.2 SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECAST – WF6 (UNTIL 2023) 140
5.1.3 ASSESSMENT- METAL & HIGH-K 141
5.2 DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR REVENUE 2021 TO 2027 (M USD) 142
5.2.1 ASSESSMENT DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS 143
5.3 M&A ACTIVITIES 145
5.3.1 M&A ACTIVITIES – MERCK & MECARO 146
5.4 NEW PLANTS 147
5.4.1 NEW PLANTS 148
5.4.2 NEW PLANTS 149
5.4.3 NEW PLANTS 150
5.4.4 NEW PLANTS 151
5.5 SUPPLIER PLANT CLOSURES – NONE REPORTED 152
5.6 NEW ENTRANTS – DRY RESIST CONSORTIUM 153
5.7 PRICING TRENDS 154
5.7.1 PRICING TRENDS – HAFNIUM 155
6 Sub Tier Material Supply Chain 157
6.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: INTRODUCTION 158
6.1.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS & CHINA 159
6.2 LOGISTICS 161
6.2.1 LOGISTICS, CONTINUED 162
6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS - NONE REPORTED 163
6.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES-NEW – NONE REPORTED 164
6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 165
7 Supplier profiles 166
ADEKA CORPORATION
AIR LIQUIDE (MAKER, PURIFIER, SUPPLIER)
AZMAX CO., LTD
CITY CHEMICAL LLC
DNF CO., LTD
…and 20+. more
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List of Tables/Graphs
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: METAL PRECURSORS MARKET SHARES 2022 13
FIGURE 2: HARDMASK, LOW K DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS REGIONAL SHARES 2022 14
FIGURE 3: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKETS REGIONAL 2022 (M USD) 15
FIGURE 4: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET, M USD 16
FIGURE 5: CVD/ALD METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS 2021 TO 2027 17
FIGURE 6: WF6 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND THROUGH 2027 19
FIGURE 7: DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR MARKET 2021 TO 2027 20
FIGURE 8: CVD AND ALD TOTAL EQUIPMENT MARKET 2022 USD 17-18 BILLION 21
FIGURE 9: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2022) 34
FIGURE 10: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 35
FIGURE 11: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX (TTSI)* 36
FIGURE 12: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS 37
FIGURE 13: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 38
FIGURE 14: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 39
FIGURE 15: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST 40
FIGURE 16: ELECTRIFICATION TREND BY WORLD REGION 41
FIGURE 17: SEMICONDUCTOR AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION 42
FIGURE 18: TSMC PHOENIX INVESTMENT ESTIMATED WILL BE US $40 B 44
FIGURE 19: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2022-2027 US$366 B 45
FIGURE 20: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS OF THE WORLD 47
FIGURE 21: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY SEGMENT (US$ B) 48
FIGURE 22: OVERVIEW OF ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 49
FIGURE 23: INTEL OHIO PLANT SITE FEB. 2023 AND ARTIST RENDERING (ON BOTTOM) 50
FIGURE 24: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 53
FIGURE 25: PORT OF LA 54
FIGURE 26: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS** 55
FIGURE 27: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 56
FIGURE 28: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS 2021 TO 2027 60
FIGURE 29: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS LOGIC 300 MM 61
FIGURE 30: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS DRAM 300 MM 62
FIGURE 31: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS NAND 300 MM 63
FIGURE 32: 3DNAND MARKET SHARE 2022 66
FIGURE 33: 3DNAND STRUCTURE 67
FIGURE 34: MO PRECURSORS 68
FIGURE 35: PATENT FAMILIES FILED FOR MOLYBDENUM ALD IN THE MEMORY SPACE 69
FIGURE 36: WAFER START FORECAST SHOWING TWO TIMING SCENARIOS WHERE MO COULD BE INTRODUCED (MILLIONS OF 200 MM EQUIVALENT/YEAR) 70
FIGURE 37: ZIRCONIUM METAL DEMAND 2021 1.6 MILLION TONNES 72
FIGURE 38: HAFNIUM METAL DEMAND 2021 78 TONNES 72
FIGURE 39: METAL PRECURSORS MARKET SHARES 2022 74
FIGURE 40: HARDMASK, LOW K DIELECTRIC PRECURSORS REGIONAL SHARES 2022 75
FIGURE 41: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKETS REGIONAL 2022 (M USD) 76
FIGURE 42: CVD AND ALD TOTAL EQUIPMENT MARKET 2022 USD 17-18 BILLION 79
FIGURE 43: SEMI 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT FORECAST 80
FIGURE 44: 2022 TECHINSIGHTS WFE SPENDING (TOP) AND 2022
GARTNER WFE SPENDING PER NODE (BOTTOM) 81
FIGURE 45: 3D DEVICE ARCHITECTURES 83
FIGURE 46: LOGIC TECHNOLOGY NODE ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 84
FIGURE 47: SAMSUNG START 3 NM PILOT RAMP USING GAA-FET
TECHNOLOGY JUNE 2022 85
FIGURE 48: IMEC 2022 LOGIC ROADMAP 86
FIGURE 49: SCALING AND LITHOGRAPHY TRENDS – A HIGH COST IN CAPITAL EXPENDITURE, ENERGY AND EMISSIONS 87
FIGURE 50: APPLIED MATERIALS CENTURA PATTERN SHAPING CLUSTER 88
FIGURE 51: DRAM TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 90
FIGURE 52: IP FILING IN THE FIELD OF 3DRAM IS ACCELERATING 91
FIGURE 53: NAND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 93
FIGURE 54: PATHWAYS FOR CONTINUED 3D NAND SCALING 94
FIGURE 55: 3DNAND STACK TRENDS FROM <100L TO 4 STACKS 95
FIGURE 56: MEMORY STACK CHALLENGES FOR V-NAND 96
FIGURE 57A: FINFET TO GAA TRANSISTOR DIAGRAMS SHOWING
SELECTIVE ETCHING IS NEEDED TO ADDRESS DEVICE COMPLEXITY 101
FIGURE 57B: ALE PROCESS CYCLE 101
FIGURE 58: PERIOD TABLE INDICATING CANDIDATES FOR ALE (ISOTROPIC ETCHING) 102
FIGURE 59: APPLICATION OF ALE (ISOTROPIC ETCH) 103
FIGURE 60: ALD AND ALE COMBO PROCESS 104
FIGURE 61: PLASMA AND THERMAL ALE PROCESSES 105
FIGURE 62: LAM ALE PROCESS 106
FIGURE 63: ALD / ALE PROCESS ROADMAP 107
FIGURE 64: ALE PATENT ACTIVITY BY COMPANY THROUGH 2022 108
FIGURE 65: AREA SELECTIVE SIN DEPOSITION BY ALD (AVS ASD2022) 111
FIGURE 66: DSA AND EUS PROCESSES 112
FIGURE 67: RESIST RECTIFICATION WITH DSA 113
FIGURE 68: TEM AND ARTIST RENDERING OF MONOLAYER CHANNEL FORMATION 114
FIGURE 69: EUV LITHOGRAPHY ENABLING GATE STRUCTURES AND PITCH SCALING 115
FIGURE 70: DRY RESIST FOR EUV SEM IMAGE 116
FIGURE 71: GREEN BENEFITS OF DY EUV RESIST 117
FIGURE 72: SPIN ON CARBON (SOC) DIELECTRIC FOR EUV METAL OXIDE
RESISTS PATTERNS AFTER LITHO 118
FIGURE 73: UNDERLAYER (DIELECTRIC) HARDMASKS TRENDS FOR NIGH NA EUV 119
FIGURE 74: SPIN ON PRIMER (SOC) VS. HMDS PRIMER 120
FIGURE 75: Y2O3 ALD VS. SPRAY COATINGS 121
FIGURE 76: GREENHOUSE GAS CONTRIBUTIONS OF CHIP FAB MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT 130
FIGURE 77: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (GWP) OF VARIOUS PROCESSES AND GASES 131
FIGURE 78: CO2EQ OUTPUT FROM ETCH GASES 132
FIGURE 79: TOTAL EMISSIONS AND ENERGY USE PROJECTION PER LOGIC NODE 133
FIGURE 80: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ALD 134
FIGURE 81: SEGMENTATION OF THE AMPOULE FLEET 2020 BASED ON NUMBER OF UNITS IN THE FIELD 135
FIGURE 82: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET, M USD 138
FIGURE 67: RESIST RECTIFICATION WITH DSA 113
FIGURE 68: TEM AND ARTIST RENDERING OF MONOLAYER CHANNEL FORMATION 114
FIGURE 69: EUV LITHOGRAPHY ENABLING GATE STRUCTURES AND PITCH SCALING 115
FIGURE 70: DRY RESIST FOR EUV SEM IMAGE 116
FIGURE 71: GREEN BENEFITS OF DY EUV RESIST 117
FIGURE 72: SPIN ON CARBON (SOC) DIELECTRIC FOR EUV METAL OXIDE RESISTS PATTERNS AFTER LITHO 118
FIGURE 73: UNDERLAYER (DIELECTRIC) HARDMASKS TRENDS FOR NIGH NA EUV 119
FIGURE 74: SPIN ON PRIMER (SOC) VS. HMDS PRIMER 120
FIGURE 75: Y2O3 ALD VS. SPRAY COATINGS 121
FIGURE 76: GREENHOUSE GAS CONTRIBUTIONS OF CHIP FAB MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT 130
FIGURE 77: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (GWP) OF VARIOUS PROCESSES AND GASES 131
FIGURE 78: CO2EQ OUTPUT FROM ETCH GASES 132
FIGURE 79: TOTAL EMISSIONS AND ENERGY USE PROJECTION PER LOGIC NODE 133
FIGURE 80: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ALD 134
FIGURE 81: SEGMENTATION OF THE AMPOULE FLEET 2020 BASED ON NUMBER OF UNITS IN THE FIELD 135
FIGURE 82: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET, M USD 138
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR REVENUES BY REGION (US$ M) 14
TABLE 2: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKETS BY REGION (US$ M) 15
TABLE 3: 2017 TO 2027 5-YEAR CAGRS 16
TABLE 4: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 32
TABLE 5: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 33
TABLE 6: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES MARKET SPENDING 2022 43
TABLE 7: PRECURSOR USAGE OF LEADING IDMS 73
TABLE 8: DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR MARKET SIZE BY REGION 75
TABLE 9: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET SIZE BY REGION 76
TABLE 10: REGIONAL PRECURSOR MARKETS 77
TABLE 11: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS, CONTINUED 78
TABLE 12: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR LOGIC DEVICES 89
TABLE 13: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR DRAM 92
TABLE 14: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR 3DNAND 97
TABLE 15: GAS TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES BY DEVICE TYPE 98
TABLE 16: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL 99
TABLE 17: PRECURSOR 5-YEAR CAGR COMPARISON 138
TABLE 18: ZIRCONIUM MINING PRODUCTION AND RESERVES 156
TABLE 19: WORLDWIDE TUNGSTEN PRODUCTION AND RESERVES 159
TABLE 20: ZIRCONIUM MINING 160
