Summary
この調査レポートでは、ブルー水素の製造技術、サプライチェーン、キープレイヤー、材料、主要なイノベーション、プロジェクトについて評価しています。
主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）
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ブルー水素製造技術
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炭素回収・利用・貯蔵（CCUS）
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ブルー水素プロセス用材料
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ブルー水素の市場予測
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企業プロフィール
Report Summary
This report assesses the blue hydrogen production technologies, supply chains, key players, materials, major innovations and projects. It includes a comparison of the 6 main blue hydrogen technologies and 10-year market forecasts for those technologies along with 7 application areas, and 3 regions of adoption. The report also examines applicable carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies and discusses the prospects and challenges of producing blue hydrogen.
Blue hydrogen is going to grow due to global decarbonization efforts in hard-to-abate sectors, such as oil refining and ammonia production. IDTechEx forecasts that the global blue hydrogen market will grow to reach US$34 billion by 2033. There are different routes to producing blue hydrogen, each with their own benefits and drawbacks. This report from IDTechEx assesses these different blue hydrogen processes as well as their associated supply chains, key players, materials, major innovations and projects. It includes a comparison of the 6 main blue hydrogen technologies and 10-year market forecasts for those technologies along with 7 application areas, and 3 regions of adoption. The report also examines applicable carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies and discusses the prospects and challenges of producing blue hydrogen.
What is blue hydrogen?
Blue hydrogen refers to the production of hydrogen from fossil fuels, mostly through natural gas reforming or coal gasification, in which most CO2 emissions are captured and stored or used in products via carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies. CO2 storage is typically accomplished by injecting the gas into geological formations such as saline aquifers or depleted oil fields, whilst utilization methods include uses such as cement manufacture. Carbon capture technologies can be fitted onto existing hydrogen processes in a technique called retrofitting or integrated into new hydrogen plants by-design. A section of the report is dedicated to CCUS specifically and discusses some key technologies that could be applied to blue hydrogen processes.
In contrast, conventional grey and black/brown hydrogen production processes emit the majority of their direct (Scope 1) CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, while green hydrogen, produced through electrolysis of water powered by renewable energy, has zero direct emissions.
A plethora of other hydrogen colors now exist to describe the various sub-routes to hydrogen production. Among them is turquoise hydrogen that is produced via methane pyrolysis, which uses heat generated by electricity to decompose methane molecules into hydrogen and solid carbon. This means that no carbon capture is required, and the solid carbon product can be used in a variety of applications depending on its form. Although not considered strictly blue, IDTechEx covers turquoise hydrogen production in this report as it uses natural gas, hence the hydrogen produced can still be classified as low-carbon hydrogen.
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The spectrum of hydrogen colors. Source: IDTechEx
Why produce blue hydrogen?
Blue and green hydrogen production are the two main routes to decarbonizing hydrogen production. This can in turn decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors like oil refining and ammonia/fertilizer production, which are currently the largest applications for hydrogen and are expected to remain so in the medium-term. Hydrogen can also decarbonize other hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and methanol production as well as heavy-duty and long-haul transport. IDTechEx outlines some of these applications in the report and presented some example projects and case studies.
Example of a potential blue hydrogen supply chain. Source: IDTechEx
Having an extensive green hydrogen electrolyzer infrastructure would be ideal for long-term decarbonization in order to completely phase out fossil fuels and prevent further emissions. However, blue hydrogen is seen as the preferred medium-term solution due to challenges with green hydrogen, such as the high cost of electrolyzer technology and the heavy reliance on available renewable power (high percentage of total CAPEX), as well as the availability of natural gas infrastructure and grey hydrogen plants ready to be converted. Nonetheless, blue hydrogen does have many issues, such as the hindered growth due to the availability of CCUS sites being a bottleneck. More discussions on these issues can be found in the report.
Overview of the production methods covered in the report
Steam-methane reforming (SMR) is the most developed and widespread hydrogen production technology (grey hydrogen) used throughout the world. Coal gasification (CG) is another popular technology used to produce hydrogen (black/brown hydrogen), especially in China, which has some of the world's largest coal reserves. Other conventional hydrogen processes include partial oxidation (POX), which is useful in converting waste oil/refining products to hydrogen, as well as the more recently developed autothermal reforming (ATR) of methane, which is a self-heating steam reforming process that is more cost-effective than SMR for producing blue hydrogen.
This report also provides coverage of methane pyrolysis, which produces hydrogen and solid carbon products, the latter being carbon black in most cases. While conventional processes are dominated by established process and technology developers, such as Air Liquide and Topsoe, the methane pyrolysis field is mostly occupied by start-ups and smaller-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) some of which are quickly commercializing their technologies. IDTechEx compares the different methane pyrolysis technologies and identifies the most developed and promising technology. Other processes identified and appraised by IDTechEx fall under the categories of novel processes (purely thermochemical) and biomass processes (biological, biochemical and thermochemical using biomass feedstocks).
The report analyzes all of these technologies, presenting some key areas of innovation, materials used, players involved in the supply chains and projects/case studies for most. A section of the report is dedicated to comparing the processes against each other using general qualitative discussions and quantitative metrics, such as LCOH. These comparisons were used to drive IDTechEx's analysis on which technology is going to be the most successful and promising for the blue hydrogen industry.
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Technology and market trends in blue hydrogen production
IDTechEx forecasts the global blue hydrogen market to reach US$34 billion by 2033. IDTechEx analysis shows that most of the capacity growth in blue hydrogen will come from Europe, particularly from countries such as the UK that aim to decarbonize their large industrial clusters using blue hydrogen and CCUS. Significant growth will also come from North America and an increase in the pace of development is seen from countries such as Australia. Applications that will dominate the market are refining and ammonia but other applications, such as methanol, will also see significant growth.
Key takeaways from this report:
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Overview of hydrogen applications, national strategies and issues surrounding blue hydrogen
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Analysis of blue hydrogen production technologies, materials, key players, supply chains and projects
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Novel blue hydrogen production methods (thermochemical, biological, biochemical)
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Technology comparisons based on metrics such as LCOH and emission intensity
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Market analysis and forecasts
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Background into CCUS and applicable technologies for blue hydrogen production
This report provides the following information:
Hydrogen market background:
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Introduction to hydrogen and the colors of hydrogen, the need for blue hydrogen and the challenges with green hydrogen production
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Overview of current and emerging applications for hydrogen
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Analysis of national hydrogen strategies from countries around the world
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Potential key challenges for blue hydrogen production
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Technological challenges and opportunities for innovation
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Summary of drivers for blue hydrogen development
Insight into blue hydrogen production technologies, materials, key players, projects and more:
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Analysis of blue hydrogen production technologies, key players and projects for the following technologies: steam-methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming (ATR), partial oxidation (POX), coal gasification (CG), methane pyrolysis, biomass processes, novel thermochemical processes.
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State of the art innovation in the blue hydrogen field.
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Case studies and lists of key players involved in the blue hydrogen value chain from catalyst and technology suppliers to blue hydrogen end-uses.
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Comparisons of blue hydrogen production technologies using qualitative analysis and quantitative metrics such as levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), technological readiness level (TRL), carbon emissions and more.
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Overview of key materials for blue hydrogen processes and players supplying them.
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Includes catalysts, sorbents, membranes, vessel materials, by-product materials.
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Discussion on carbon capture, utilization & storage (CCUS) relevant to blue hydrogen. Includes general information on CCUS, summary of point-source carbon capture methods for blue hydrogen, detailed analysis of carbon capture methods and players involved in supply chains.
Market forecasts & analysis:
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10-year capacity forecasts in million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of hydrogen for the 6 major production technologies (including SMR, ATR & POX), 7 major application areas (including refining, ammonia & methanol), regions of installations (Asia & Australia, Europe, Americas) and type of installation (new or retrofit).
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10-year capacity forecasts in million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of CO2 for the 6 major production technologies.
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Blue hydrogen cost of installations (plant CAPEX) forecast in US$B for the 6 major production technologies.
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Total blue hydrogen market forecast in US$B for the 6 major production technologies and type of installation (new or retrofit).
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Comparison to national hydrogen targets for the major economies aiming to produce hydrogen.
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Outlook on the hydrogen market.
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Table of Contents
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1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
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1.1. |
Hydrogen as a clean-burning fuel is gaining momentum |
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1.2. |
Current hydrogen supply chain & blue hydrogen |
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1.3. |
Current state of hydrogen production |
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1.4. |
Removing CO₂ emissions from hydrogen production |
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1.5. |
Turquoise hydrogen from methane pyrolysis |
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1.6. |
The challenges in green hydrogen production |
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1.7. |
The case for blue hydrogen production |
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1.8. |
Potential key challenges with blue hydrogen |
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1.9. |
Technological challenges & opportunities for innovation |
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1.10. |
CCUS technological challenges & opportunities for innovation |
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1.11. |
Current & emerging applications for hydrogen |
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1.12. |
National hydrogen strategies |
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1.13. |
Blue hydrogen supply chain |
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1.14. |
Potential business model for blue hydrogen projects |
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1.15. |
Summary of drivers for blue hydrogen development |
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1.16. |
Overview of production methods covered |
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1.17. |
Key considerations in designing blue hydrogen processes |
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1.18. |
Blue hydrogen technologies overview |
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1.19. |
What is Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)? |
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1.20. |
Carbon capture technologies |
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1.21. |
Pre- vs post-combustion CO₂ capture for blue hydrogen |
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1.22. |
Novel processes for blue hydrogen production |
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1.23. |
Pros & cons of production technologies (1/3) |
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1.24. |
Pros & cons of production technologies (2/3) |
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1.25. |
Pros & cons of production technologies (3/3) |
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1.26. |
Levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) comparison |
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1.27. |
Cost breakdown comparison |
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1.28. |
CO₂ emission intensity comparison |
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1.29. |
Hydrogen production processes by stage of development |
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1.30. |
Process comparison summary & key takeaways |
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1.31. |
Blue hydrogen production value chain |
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1.32. |
SMR + CCUS value chain |
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1.33. |
POX + CCUS value chain |
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1.34. |
ATR + CCUS value chain |
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1.35. |
Methane pyrolysis activities around the world |
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1.36. |
CCUS company landscape |
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1.37. |
Leading blue hydrogen companies |
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1.38. |
The UK will be a leading blue hydrogen hub |
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1.39. |
Blue hydrogen project announcements |
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1.40. |
Blue hydrogen capacity forecast by technology |
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1.41. |
Blue hydrogen capacity forecast by end-use |
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1.42. |
Blue hydrogen capacity forecast by region |
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1.43. |
Blue hydrogen market forecast by technology |
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1.44. |
Key innovations in blue hydrogen technology (1/2) |
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1.45. |
Key innovations in blue hydrogen technology (2/2) |
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1.46. |
Is blue hydrogen production innovative? |
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1.47. |
IDTechEx's outlook on blue hydrogen |
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1.48. |
Companies profiled |
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2. |
INTRODUCTION |
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2.1. |
Introduction to the hydrogen economy and blue hydrogen |
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2.1.1. |
The need for unprecedented emission reductions |
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2.1.2. |
Hydrogen as a clean-burning fuel is gaining momentum |
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2.1.3. |
Hydrogen economy & low-carbon hydrogen |
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2.1.4. |
Hydrogen economy development issues |
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2.1.5. |
Overview of hydrogen production methods |
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2.1.6. |
The colors of hydrogen |
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2.1.7. |
The colors of hydrogen & report scope |
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2.1.8. |
Current hydrogen supply chain & blue hydrogen |
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2.1.9. |
Current hydrogen supply chain & blue hydrogen (2/2) |
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2.1.10. |
Turquoise hydrogen from methane pyrolysis |
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2.1.11. |
The challenges in green hydrogen production |
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2.1.12. |
The case for blue hydrogen production |
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2.2. |
Drivers for blue hydrogen development |
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2.2.1. |
Current & emerging applications for hydrogen (1/2) |
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2.2.2. |
Current & emerging applications for hydrogen (2/2) |
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2.2.3. |
Example of a key emerging application - FCEVs |
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2.2.4. |
Role of hydrogen in synthetic fuel & chemical production |
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2.2.5. |
The need for carbon pricing |
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2.2.6. |
National hydrogen strategies (1/2) |
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2.2.7. |
National hydrogen strategies (2/2) |
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2.2.8. |
US' hydrogen strategy |
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2.2.9. |
Tax credit changes in the US IRA fostering blue hydrogen |
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2.2.10. |
The impact of IRA tax credits on the cost of hydrogen |
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2.2.11. |
UK's hydrogen strategy |
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2.2.12. |
The UK's CCUS clusters for blue hydrogen |
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2.2.13. |
UK's CCUS clusters: East Coast Cluster |
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2.2.14. |
UK's CCUS clusters: HyNet North West Cluster |
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2.2.15. |
Canada's hydrogen strategy |
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2.2.16. |
Netherlands' hydrogen strategy |
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2.2.17. |
Blue hydrogen supply chain |
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2.2.18. |
Potential business model for blue hydrogen projects |
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2.2.19. |
Potential key challenges with blue hydrogen |
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2.2.20. |
Technological challenges & opportunities for innovation |
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2.2.21. |
Summary of drivers for blue hydrogen development |
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3. |
BLUE HYDROGEN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES |
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3.1.1. |
Overview of production methods covered |
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3.1.2. |
Key considerations in designing blue hydrogen processes |
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3.1.3. |
Blue hydrogen technologies overview |
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3.1.4. |
Pre- vs post-combustion CO₂ capture for blue hydrogen |
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3.1.5. |
Blue hydrogen production value chain |
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3.2. |
Common features of blue hydrogen processes |
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3.2.1. |
Natural gas pre-treatment: desulfurization |
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3.2.2. |
Hydrodesulfurization (HDS) |
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3.2.3. |
Natural gas pre-treatment: Pre-reforming |
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3.2.4. |
Gas heated reformer (GHR) - Novel pre-reformer |
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3.2.5. |
Water-gas shift (WGS) & sour shift reactors |
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3.2.6. |
Pressure swing adsorption (PSA) (1/2) |
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3.2.7. |
Pressure swing adsorption (PSA) (2/2) |
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3.2.8. |
Other hydrogen separation options |
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3.2.9. |
Air separation units & oxygen generators |
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3.2.10. |
Auxiliary equipment |
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3.3. |
Steam-methane reforming (SMR) |
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3.3.1. |
Steam-methane reforming (SMR) |
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3.3.2. |
SMR process flow diagram (PFD) |
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3.3.3. |
CO₂ capture options for SMR |
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3.3.4. |
CO₂ capture retrofit options - Honeywell UOP example |
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3.3.5. |
SMR reformer unit |
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3.3.6. |
Steam reformer catalysts |
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3.3.7. |
SMR reformer tubes |
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3.3.8. |
New reformer designs: Bayonet reformer |
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3.3.9. |
New reformer designs: Convection reformers |
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3.3.10. |
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