Summary
この調査レポートでは、自動車用レーダーの新技術と新興技術を詳述し、既存市場を徹底的に調査し、その継続的な成長と変革に関する20年間の予測を示している。
主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）
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自家用車の規制と法整備の進展
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自家用自律走行車
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レーダーの性能動向
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4Dとイメージング・レーダーへの道
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ローカライゼーションにおけるレーダー
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レーダーの技術動向
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レーダー市場, サプライヤー, シェア, 構造, 変化
Report Summary
Spurred by the adoption of new advanced driver assistance technologies during this century, the automotive radar market has blossomed. However, despite its widespread adoption and popularity IDTechEx predicts within this report that there are still substantial opportunities for this humble sensor, both in terms of new technology developments and new applications. As such this market with a value of more than US$8 billion still has the potential for long, sustained, and steady growth with a 10-year CAGR of 6.9%. This report explains those opportunities, details new and emerging automotive radar technologies, thoroughly examines the existing market, and provides a 20-year forecast of its continued growth and transformation.
4D radar
Automotive radar has been a common sensor used within the car market for more than 20 years. Thus far its deployment hasn't warranted significant imaging performance, but with the emergence and demand for higher levels of autonomy this is changing. Radar provides exceptional performance in poor weather, night-time, low reflectivity objects, and direct sunlight compared to its competitors. However, its ability to create the high-resolution images necessary for identifying free space to drive in and even perform basic object classification has so far been missing. Most radars on the market even today miss the ability to resolve in the elevation direction which creates significant pitfalls in its performance.
Over the past few years 4D radar and imaging radar have emerged, and in the past two years they have begun deployment onto consumer vehicles. This report highlights which radar currently available from leading tier ones such as Continental, Bosch, and ZF could be classified as 4D imaging radars. Additionally known deployments onto existing consumer vehicles are listed and the tier one radar are benchmarked against emerging start-ups such as Arbe, Uhnder, Zendar and more.
There is a selection of technological avenues available for improving radar angular resolution performance. This report explains the options available, how they work, the potential for improvement they offer, and which companies have been developing them. An ambitious goal of the automotive radar players has been to get below 0.1˚ of angular resolution in both the elevation and azimuth directions. With this level of performance, a radar would be able to detect an object such as a tire on its side at 200m. Some emerging technologies are getting towards this level of performance, and this report discusses how, and how there are still limitations. Furthermore, the report explores other potential technology developments that could continue the performance growth of radar.
Growing emphasis on short range radars driven by radar cocooning features
Short range and long-range radars both have important roles in enabling ADAS functionality. Forward facing dependent ADAS applications such as adaptive cruise control and automatic emergency braking require the long detection distances and high resolution offered by the cutting-edge long-range radar products. While short range radar products typically fulfil applications that don't require so much performance, such as blind spot detection systems.
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Forward facing ADAS applications such as adaptive cruise control are now widely adopted, which means that the growth potential for long range radar is reducing. This report found that there were 0.69 long range radars shipped per vehicle in 2022. This is set to grow, but with the vast majority of autonomous applications utilizing only a single front radar, IDTechEx predicts its adoption ceiling will be little over 1 per vehicle. Some vehicles, such as robotaxis and privately owned level 4 vehicles will consume more than one high performance, long range, 4D imaging radar per vehicle, but even by the end of this reports 20-year forecast that makes up only a small contingency of the automotive market.
For significant growth in overall radar numbers, one should instead turn to the short-range radar. In 2022 IDTechEx measured only 0.6 short range radar per vehicle. There is clear potential for this figure to more than treble as blind spot detection systems require at least two short range radar. Furthermore, see in this report how evolving ADAS features will require more short-range radar per vehicle, and how new semiconductor and packaging technologies could position radar as a compelling alternative to ultrasonic devices for parking sensor applications.
Autonomous mobility as a service coming of age
One of the biggest drivers for the future growth of the automotive radar market will be the emergence and widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles. These vehicles use many radars for understanding the environment and different obstacles. In fact, one of the leaders and most prominent companies in robotaxi development, Cruise, uses 21 radars per vehicle. Close rival, Waymo, relies more heavily on cameras in its sensor suite, yet it still has an impressive six radar, all of which IDTechEx believe to be high performance 4D imaging radar.
Currently, many of these vehicles are deployed for testing in California, with the leaders, Waymo and Cruise having a combined fleet of more than 1,000 vehicles. However, that is small in the grand scheme of the automotive market. The promising development within the past two years is that commercial robotaxi services are beginning to come online. It is now possible for members of the public to pay for autonomous mobility as a service (MaaS) in several cities across the US including San Francisco, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. For the automotive radar market this signifies a new phase of market growth propelled by vehicles that require numerous high performance automotive radar.
This report covers the requirements for this new era of vehicle and how their emergence will change the automotive market. IDTechEx predicts that this new mobility opportunity will have noticeable impact on the demand for new personally owned vehicles, causing the car market to peak. Despite this, see how the forecasts for automotive radar still predict continued growth after the peak in passenger car sales.
A complete and comprehensive view of the automotive radar market can be found in this report. Key aspects of the automotive radar industry covered include:
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Forces that are driving further adoption of automotive radar, such as increased adoption of ADAS technologies, the emergence of more sophisticated ADAS technologies, and emerging autonomous driving technologies.
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Radar requirements for private automotive products, emerging robotaxis, and autonomous mobility as a service.
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Performance trends within radar
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Technology trends driving performance improvements and emerging technologies
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4D imaging radars, technologies explained and key products benchmarked
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Changes to radar technologies; frequencies, waveforms, radomes, antennas, and semiconductors
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Automotive market characterization and analysis of leading tier-one companies by region, for different radar types, and radar choices of leading OEMs
The forecast chapter then explains how trends within the automotive radar market will play out over the next 20 years:
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Automotive market unit sales
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Automotive radar unit sales and revenue (US$ million)
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Material demand for radar (million m2)
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Table of Contents
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1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
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1.1. |
Three Key Takeaways for the Automotive Radar Market |
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1.2. |
Introduction to Automotive Radar |
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1.3. |
ADAS Applications Enabled by Front Radar |
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1.4. |
ADAS Applications Enabled by Side Radar |
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1.5. |
Growth in ADAS Availability Over the Past 20 years |
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1.6. |
Percentage of Vehicles Shipped With Key ADAS Features in 2022 |
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1.7. |
SAE Automation Levels Definition |
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1.8. |
Growth in Level 2 Deployment Since 2020 |
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1.9. |
Number of Radars Shipped per Vehicle |
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1.10. |
Number of Radars Used in SAE Levels 0, 1 & 2 |
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1.11. |
No of Sensors Required for Autonomous Cars - Level 0 to Level 4 and Robotaxis |
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1.12. |
The Need For and Emergence of Imaging Radar |
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1.13. |
4D Radars and Imaging Radars |
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1.14. |
Existing 4D Imaging Radars on the Market |
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1.15. |
Vehicles Currently Using 4D Imaging Radars |
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1.16. |
Semiconductor Technology Trends in Radar |
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1.17. |
Future Radar Packaging Choices |
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1.18. |
Passenger Vehicle Sales Forecast by Region 2019-2044 |
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1.19. |
Autonomous Vehicles Forecast by SAE level 2022-2044 |
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1.20. |
Sensors for Autonomous Vehicles 2024-2044 |
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1.21. |
Radar Unit Sales for Different SAE Levels 2020-2044 |
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1.22. |
Regional Radar Sales 2020-2024 |
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1.23. |
Sales Revenue From Radar by SAE Level 2020-2044 |
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1.24. |
Company profiles |
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2. |
INTRODUCTION |
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2.1. |
Radar - Radio Detection and Ranging |
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2.2. |
Typical Sensor Suite for Autonomous Cars |
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2.3. |
Radar |
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2.4. |
Sensors and their Purpose |
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2.5. |
Where does Radar Sit in the Sensor Trio? |
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2.6. |
ADAS Adoption by Region in 2022 |
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2.7. |
Functions of Autonomous Driving at Different Levels |
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2.8. |
ADAS and AV Key Terminologies |
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2.9. |
SAE Levels of Automation in Cars |
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2.10. |
Legislative Barriers for Private Autonomous Vehicles |
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2.11. |
Safety Mandated Features Driving Wider Radar Adoption |
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2.12. |
Typical Sensor Suites and the Purpose of Each Sensor |
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2.13. |
Quantity per Car - Level 2 |
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2.14. |
Sensors per Vehicle: Level 3 and Above |
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2.15. |
No More Medium Range Radar (MRR) |
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2.16. |
Occupant Detection |
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2.17. |
Radar Anatomy |
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2.18. |
Radar Key Components |
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2.19. |
Primary Radar Components - The Antenna |
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2.20. |
Primary Radar Components - the RF Transceiver |
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2.21. |
Primary Radar Components - MCU |
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3. |
REGULATORY & LEGISLATIVE PROGRESS FOR PRIVATE VEHICLES |
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3.1.1. |
Why Regulating Autonomous Vehicles is Important for the Continued Growth of Radar |
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3.1.2. |
Privately Owned Autonomous Vehicles |
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3.1.3. |
Legislation and Autonomy |
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3.2. |
Europe |
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3.2.1. |
EU Mandating Level 2 Autonomy from July 2022 |
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3.2.2. |
Level 3 roll out in Europe (1) |
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3.2.3. |
Level 3 Roll Out in Europe (2) |
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3.2.4. |
Level 3 outlook in Europe |
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3.2.5. |
UNECE 2023 Update |
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3.3. |
US |
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3.3.1. |
Level 3, Legislation, US |
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3.3.2. |
Mercedes S-Class first level 3 car in US |
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3.3.3. |
Outlook for the US |
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3.4. |
China |
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3.4.1. |
Level 3, Legislation, China |
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3.4.2. |
Shenzhen Moves Towards Level 3 |
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3.4.3. |
Outlook for China |
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3.5. |
Japan |
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3.5.1. |
Private Autonomous Vehicles in Japan |
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3.5.2. |
World Overview |
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3.5.3. |
The Autonomous Legal Race |
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4. |
PRIVATE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES |
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4.1. |
ADAS Features |
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4.1.1. |
ADAS Functions and Radar |
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4.1.2. |
IDTechEx's ADAS Feature Database |
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4.1.3. |
ADAS Adoption by Region in 2022 |
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4.1.4. |
ADAS Feature Deployment in the US |
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4.1.5. |
ADAS Feature Deployment in the China |
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4.1.6. |
ADAS Feature Deployment in EU + UK + EFTA |
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4.1.7. |
ADAS Feature Deployment in Japan |
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4.1.8. |
SAE Level Adoption by Region 2020 vs 2022 |
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4.2. |
Examples and Case Studies |
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4.2.1. |
Sensor Suite Disclaimer |
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4.2.2. |
Honda |
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4.2.3. |
Honda Legend - Sensor suite |
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4.2.4. |
Mercedes S-Class (2021), EQS (2022) |
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4.2.5. |
Mercedes S-class - Sensor Suite |
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4.2.6. |
Daimler/Bosch Autonomous Parking |
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4.2.7. |
Ford, VW and Argo AI |
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4.2.8. |
Audi |
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4.2.9. |
Case study - Audi A8 (2017) |
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4.2.10. |
Tesla |
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4.2.11. |
Tesla's Unusual Approach |
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4.2.12. |
Tesla's Sensor Suite |
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4.2.13. |
Super Cruise (GM) and BlueCruise (Ford) |
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4.2.14. |
Cadillac Escalade - Sensor suite |
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4.2.15. |
China - XPeng and Arcfox |
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4.2.16. |
Leaders |
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4.2.17. |
Private Vehicle Leaders |
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4.3. |
Sensors for Private Vehicles |
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4.3.1. |
Front Radar Applications |
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4.3.2. |
The Role of Side Radars |
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4.3.3. |
Front and Side Radars per Car |
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4.3.4. |
Total Radars per Car for Different SAE levels |
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4.3.5. |
Vehicle camera applications |
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4.3.6. |
E-mirrors, an emerging camera application |
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4.3.7. |
External Cameras for Autonomous Driving |
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4.3.8. |
Internal Cameras for Autonomous Driver Monitoring |
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4.3.9. |
LiDARs in automotive applications |
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4.3.10. |
LiDAR Deployment |
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4.3.11. |
Total Sensors For Level 0 to Level 4 and Robotaxis |
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4.3.12. |
Summary of Privately Owned Autonomous Vehicles |
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4.4. |
Key Player Analysis |
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4.4.1. |
State of Development |
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4.4.2. |
Waymo |
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4.4.3. |
Waymo Sensor Suite |
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4.4.4. |
Cruise |
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4.4.5. |
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