Summary

The total number of smartphones is expected to increase due to the launch of 5G and growth in emerging markets. We forecast that the total number of active smartphones in emerging regions will exceed 3.3 billion by 2024. This report examines the regional trends and drivers affecting smartphone sales, and how this will affect operators and vendors.

This data forms the annex to Analysys Mason's report Smartphones: worldwide trends and forecasts 2019-2024

The annex presents comprehensive smartphone market forecasts worldwide and in eight regions and sixty-nine individual countries. It includes forecasts for sales and connections for handsets - smartphones and non-smartphones.

It contains the following worksheets:       

Definitions

General definitions              

•             All    Connections    For fixed and mobile services (and for both voice and broadband), we have used the common industry term 'connections'. This metric could more accurately be labelled 'SIMs' for mobile (or 'accounts' in countries such as the USA, where SIM-card technology is not necessarily used) and could be labelled 'lines' for fixed connections (channels for ISDN). All data for mobile connections relates to active connections. An active connection is one from which a billed event has occurred in the past three months. Note that we count connections, not users. Some users will have multiple connections
•             All    Residential connections    Connections that are not paid for by the customer's employer
•             All    Business connections    Connections that are paid for by the customer's employer
•             Mobile    Prepaid connections    Connections on prepaid subscriptions
•             Mobile    Contract connections    Connections on contract subscriptions
•             Mobile    2G    GSM, GPRS, HSCSD, EDGE, CDMA2000–CDMA2000 1×RTT
•             Mobile    3G    CDMA2000 EV-DO/EV-DV, W-CDMA HSPA family
•             Mobile    4G    LTE
•             Mobile    5G    5G NR
•             Mobile    Connections by generation, for example 4G    A 4G connection denotes an active SIM in a 4G-compatible device that accesses the 4G network at least once
•             Fixed    Primary connection    The first voice connection to a site is considered to be the primary connection. This will typically be a PSTN connection, or if the operator has migrated PSTN connections to VoIP connections, then these would then be considered to be the voice connection
•             Fixed    Secondary connection    Additional voice connections (beyond the primary voice connection) are considered to be secondary. This could be a second PSTN connection, or a secondary VoIP service. For example in the UK, Orange and BT Total Broadband both offer cheap calls on a secondary VoIP connection
•             All    Retail revenue    Industry revenue excluding interconnect and separately billed equipment charges
•             All    Service revenue    Industry revenue including interconnect but excluding separately billed equipment charges
•             All    ASPU    Average retail revenue per connection per month. Retail revenue for a given period is divided by average active subscribers for that period
•             All    ARPU    Average service revenue per connection per month. Service revenue for a given period is divided by average active subscribers for that period
•             All    Residential    Residential connections and revenue relate to usage taking place in households. They include connections and revenue relating to work-from-home usage, even when paid for by a business based at a separate site. SOHO connections and revenue are included in this segment
•             All    Business    Non-residential  

Series presented in the data sheets

•             Mobile    Connections – total     Total active mobile connections (handset, mobile broadband and M2M)
•             Mobile    Connections – penetration    Total active mobile connections per head of population
•             Mobile    Connections – handset    Total active mobile handset subscribers
•             Mobile    Connections – handset, smartphone    Mobile handsets that have some characteristics of a PC, including multimedia capabilities (such as high-quality large screens, large memories and fast processors)
•             Mobile    Connections – handset, basic    Mobile handsets that are not smartphones
•             Mobile    Connections – mobile broadband    All mobile broadband (2G+) PC, laptop, netbook or tablet connections via a USB modem or datacard. Excludes handset access or use of the handset as a modem
•             Mobile    Connections – M2M    M2M connections include all non-mobile broadband connected devices (typically unattended SIMs communicating with each other)

Latin America (LATAM)        

• Mobile    Retail revenue    Includes revenue billed for by operators or their service provider and MVNO partners but excludes interconnect revenue. It includes roaming-out revenue, i.e. retail revenue coming from subscribers roaming out of the home country. It excludes interconnect revenue derived by network operators from other network operators for call termination and for wholesale roaming-in services. We model mobile interconnection charges relating to voice services and person-to-person messaging. (Retail revenue is often referred to as 'spend')
•             Mobile    Service revenue    Retail revenue plus interconnect revenue
•             Mobile    Service revenue – data    Total service revenue derived from all mobile services other than voice
•             Mobile    Service revenue – data as % of service revenue    Total mobile data service revenue expressed as a percentage of total mobile service revenue
•             Mobile    Service revenue – handset    Service revenue accruing from mobile handset SIMs (excluding mobile broadband and M2M)
•             Mobile    Retail revenue – handset    Retail revenue accruing from mobile handset SIMs (excluding mobile broadband and M2M)
•             Mobile    Service revenue – handset, voice     Mobile voice service revenue from mobile handset SIMs
•             Mobile    Retail revenue – handset, voice    Mobile voice retail revenue from mobile handset SIMs
•             Mobile    Service revenue – handset, non-voice    Mobile non-voice service revenue from mobile handset SIMs, i.e. P2P messaging and content and data services
•             Mobile    Retail revenue – handset, non-voice    Mobile non-voice retail revenue from mobile handset SIMs, i.e. P2P messaging and content and data services
•             Mobile    Service revenue – handset, P2P messaging    Mobile P2P (both SMS and other P2P) messaging service revenue from mobile handset SIMs
•             Mobile    Retail revenue – handset, P2P messaging    Mobile P2P (both SMS and other P2P) messaging retail revenue from mobile handset SIMs
•             Mobile    Service revenue – handset, content and data    Service revenue from mobile handset SIMs from non-P2P messaging applications, such as data access, IM, email (including BlackBerry) subscription, paid information, personalisation, games, mobile-based TV, music, social networking and other paid-for data services. Equal to retail revenue, as no interconnection charges are associated with these services. We do not allocate any roaming-in revenue to these services
•             Mobile    Service revenue – mobile broadband    Total mobile service revenue from mobile broadband connections (typically PCMCIA, embedded PC SIMs and USB modem-based SIMs). Equal to retail revenue, as no interconnection charges are associated with these services
•             Mobile    Service revenue – M2M    Service revenue from M2M SIMs. Equal to retail revenue, as no interconnection charges are associated with these services
•             Fixed    Connections – voice    All active fixed voice connections, both narrowband (PSTN and ISDN) and VoBB connections
•             Fixed    Connections – PSTN/ISDN    Active narrowband connections (both PSTN connections and ISDN channels, including non-VoIP cable telephony)
•             Fixed    Connections – PSTN    Active analogue circuit-switched lines in service, including non-VoIP cable telephony.
•             Fixed    Connections – ISDN    Active ISDN channels – we assume all residential ISDN connections are ISDN2, while business ISDN is a blend of ISDN2 and ISDN30
•             Fixed    Connections – VoBB    Active connections to either paid-for native VoIP services that use a broadband access connection, or VoIP services included in a paid-for bundle including broadband access. This figure consists of PTSN emulation services, but excludes peer-to-peer applications
•             Fixed    Connections – retail broadband    All fixed broadband connections (xDSL, residential FTTH/B, cable modem, other fixed broadband and dedicated leased connections). Note that satellite broadband connections are not measured
•             Fixed    Connections – DSL    Connections of all the family of DSL technologies, including ADSL and its variants, SDSL and its variants and VDSL, irrespective of downstream speed
•             Fixed    Connections – FTTH/B    Residential FTTH/B connections including fibre to the home or building, and fibre to the apartment (with LAN distribution). Excludes VDSL where the cabinet is in the building
•             Fixed    Connections – cable modem    Cable modem connections, irrespective of downstream speed
•             Fixed    Connections – other fixed broadband    All other 'fixed' type connections, including non-FTTH/B LANs, powerline technologies and WLAN connections
•             Fixed    Connections – IPTV    Residential telco TV delivered over a broadband connection (both hybrid and pure IPTV solutions)
•             Fixed    Connections – households with voice    Households with a primary fixed voice connection
•             Fixed    Connections – voice penetration    End-of-year primary fixed-voice connections divided by the number of households
•             Fixed    Connections – broadband household penetration    End-of-year fixed broadband connections divided by the number of households
•             Fixed    Connections – dial-up Internet    Total sites with an active dial-up Internet connection
•             Fixed    Retail revenue    Includes operators' and service providers' revenue from end users for fixed telecoms services. Total retail revenue from all fixed telecoms services includes voice, broadband, dial-up, IPTV and BNS. (Retail revenue is often referred to as 'spend')
•             Fixed    Service revenue    Retail revenue plus interconnect revenue, i.e. operators' revenue from other operators and service providers for fixed telecoms services
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – voice    Total fixed voice retail revenue, including calls and access revenue from PSTN, ISDN and also from VoBB connections
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – dial-up    Retail revenue from dial-up Internet services
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – broadband    Total fixed broadband retail revenue, including DSL, residential FTTH/B, cable modem and other fixed broadband
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – DSL    All DSL technology broadband retail revenue
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – FTTH/B    Residential FTTH/B broadband retail revenue
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – cable modem    Cable modem broadband retail revenue
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – other fixed broadband retail revenue    Other broadband retail revenue
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – business network services    "End-user business spend on unmanaged and managed wide area data network services. Includes spend on retail point-to-point leased lines, layer 2 and 3 VPNs, and legacy public data services such as ATM and frame relay. Revenues from equipment sales, rental, hosting charges or management are excluded
•             Fixed    Retail revenue – IPTV    Retail revenue billed by the telco TV provider for the provision of hybrid and/or pure IPTV services

Acronyms

•                 2G    Second generation
•                 3G    Third generation
•                 4G    Fourth generation
•                 5G    Fifth generation
•                 5G NR    Fifth generation new radio
•                 BNS    Business network services
•                 CDMA2000    3G variant of code-division multiple access
•                 DSL     Digital subscriber line
•                 EDGE    Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution
•                 EV-DO    CDMA2000 1× Evolution Data Only
•                 EV-DV    CDMA2000 1× Evolution Data and Voice
•                 FTTH/B      Fibre to the home or building
•                 FWA     Fixed wireless access
•                 GDP    Gross domestic product
•                 GPRS    General Packet Radio Service
•                 GSM    Global System for Mobile Communications
•                 HSCSD     High-Speed Circuit-Switched Data
•                 HSDPA    High-Speed Downlink Packet Access
•                 HPSA    High-Speed Packet Access
•                 HSUPA    High-Speed Uplink Packet Access
•                 IM    Instant messaging
•                 ISDN     Integrated Services Digital Network
•                 LAN    Local-area network
•                 LTE    Long Term Evolution
•                 M2M    Machine to machine
•                 MME    Mobile media and entertainment
•                 MMS    Multimedia Messaging Service
•                 MVNO    Mobile virtual network operator
•                 P2P    Person to person
•                 PCMCIA    Personal Computer Memory Card International Association
•                 POTS     Plain old telephone service
•                 PSTN      Public switched telephone network
•                 SIM    Subscriber identity module
•                 SMS    Short Message Service
•                 USB    Universal Serial Bus
•                 VoBB    Voice over broadband
•                 VoIP     Voice over Internet Protocol
•                 VPN    Virtual private network
•                 W-CDMA    Wideband Code-Division Multiple Access
•                 WLAN    Wireless local-area network
•                 xDSL     Generic digital subscriber line
   

Data

Handset market data

Connections and unit sales are rounded to the nearest thousand. Connections and unit sales are given at year end.

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