Summary
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Provides focused information on US wet chemical demand vs. supply including volumes, revenues, wafer start demand and ranking of leading US chip fabricators.
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Who should get this report? Business Development Managers, Supply-Chain Managers, Financial Investment/Advisors, anyone interested in understanding the dynamic of the US Semiconductor Supply-Chains that support chip manufacturing.
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Table of Contents
1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 OF 8 7
1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 OF 8 8
1.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 OF 8 9
1.3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 OF 8 10
1.4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 OF 8 11
1.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 OF 8 12
1.6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 OF 8 13
1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 OF 8 14
1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - TECHCET MARKET ASSESSMENT 15
2.0 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS 16
2.1 SHRINKING DOMESTIC MARKETS 17
2.2 MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT 18
2.3 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING CHIP FAB 19
2.5 IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 20
2.5 CURRENT SUPPLIERS - GENERAL COMMENTS 21
2.6 AN OVERVIEW 24
3 3.0 THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO 26
3.1 ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS 27
3.2 MAJOR US ANNOUNCED FAB EXPANSIONS 29
3.3 CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW 30
3.4 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 32
4.0 SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY 33
4.1 DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT 34
4.2 EXPANSION DRIVES GROWTH IN MATERIALS DEMAND 35
4.3 CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 36
4.4 CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES & GAP 37
4.5 FAB EXPANSIONS PUSH UP DEMAND FOR ALL MATERIALS 38
4.6 DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE 39
4.7 WET CHEMICALS SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECASTS 40
4.7.1 SULFURIC ACID – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 41
4.7.1.1 H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 42
4.7.2 IPA – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 43
4.7.2.1 IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 44
4.7.3 HYDROGEN PEROXIDE – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 45
4.7.3.1 H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 46
4.7.4 HCL – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 47
4.7.4.1 HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 48
4.7.5 NH4OH – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 49
4.7.5.1 NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 50
4.7.6 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 51
4.7.6.1 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 52
4.7.7 H3PO4 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 53
4.7.7.1 H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 54
4.7.8 HNO3 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 55
4.7.8.1 HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 56
4.8 KEY TIER II SUPPLIERS SUMMARY 57
5.0 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 58
5.1 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 59
5.2 ANTICIPATED ACTINS 60
5.3 ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS 61
5.4 THE IMPACT OF TSMC 63
5.6 COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS 64
6.0 DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS 67
6.1 US DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS FOR UHP 68
6.2 A GROWING DEPENDENCY IN IMPORTED PRODUCTS 69
6.3 “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION” 71
6.4 AN ADDITIONAL BUT IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION 73
7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY 74
7.1 EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 75
7.2 ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY 76
7.3 CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS 77
7.3.1 EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS 78
7.4 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS 79
8.0 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 80
8.1 RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 81
9.0 APPENDIX: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS 84
APPENDIX 9.1 85
APPENDIX 9.2 86
APPENDIX 9.3 87
List of Figures
FIGURE 1: 2025 CHIP FAB CAPACITY- 36M/YR 9
FIGURE 2: US WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 2020-2025 BY NODE 11
FIGURE 3: SUPPLY-CHAIN CHALLENGES WILL ESCALATE AS CHEMICAL
DEMAND INCREASES (LOS ANGELES, CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW) 15
FIGURE 4: SHARE OF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING 17
FIGURE 5: 2020 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT 18
FIGURE 6: US WAFER STARTS ESTIMATE BY DEVICES TYPE AND NODE,
2020-2025 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 19
FIGURE 7: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR
2020-2025 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 20
FIGURE 8: SULFURIC ACID 24
FIGURE 9: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW >40% TO 37M 200MM
EQUIVALENT WAFER CAPACITY (17M 300MM) 30
FIGURE 10: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING
CHIP FABS, 2020-2025 32
FIGURE 11: CHIP EXPANSION GROWTH 38
FIGURE 12: H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (METRIC TONS) 41
FIGURE 13: HSO4 US VOLUME DEMAND 37% ’25/’21 ; 6% CAGR 42
FIGURE 14: IPA SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (METRIC TONS) 43
FIGURE 15: IPA US VOLUME DEMAND 35% GROWTH 6% CAGR 44
FIGURE 16: H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 45
FIGURE 17: H2O2 US VOLUME DEMAND 42% GROWTH 7% CAGR 46
FIGURE 18: HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 47
FIGURE 19: HCI US VOLUME DEMAND 47% GROWTH 8% CAGR 48
FIGURE 20: H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 49
FIGURE 21: NH4OH US VOLUME DEMAND 43% GROWTH 7% CAGR 50
FIGURE 22: HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 49
FIGURE 23: HF US VOLUME DEMAND 23% GROWTH, 4% CAGR 52
FIGURE 24: H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 53
FIGURE 25: H3PO4 US VOLUME DEMAND 23% GROWTH, 4% CAGR 54
FIGURE 26: HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 55
FIGURE 27: HNO3 US VOLUME DEMAND 13% GROWTH, 3% CAGR 56
FIGURE 28: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS INTO THE US IS FEASIBLE BUT IT’S NOT EASY AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE STEPS 68
FIGURE 29: SUPPLY-CHAIN LOGISTICS CHALLENGES PERSIST TODAY (LOS ANGELES, CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW) 74
FIGURE 30: SHIP TO CONTROL FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE 78
List of Tables
TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2020-2025 10
TABLE 2: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 12
TABLE 3: US DOMESTIC TIER I SUPPLIERS 22
TABLE 4: KEY PROVISIONS OF THE AMERICAN FOUNDRIES ACT 28
TABLE 5: MAJOR US ANNOUNCED FAB EXPANSIONS 29
TABLE 6: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH IN THE US 2025/2020 35
TABLE 7: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 36
TABLE 8: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS 37
TABLE 9: 2020 – 2025 CHANGE IN VOLUMES REQUIRED FOR US CHIP PRODUCTION 39
TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF KEY US TIER 2 AND TIER 1 SUPPLIERS* 57
TABLE 11: ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS 61
TABLE 12: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS 65
TABLE 13: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS ASSUMPTION 69
TABLE 14: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 70
TABLE 15: ALL BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS AND REQUIREMENTS IMPORTED 75
TABLE 16: PURITY REQUIREMENTS 76
Press Release
November 16, 2022
US Semiconductor Wet Chemicals Supply-Chain Restructuring to accommodate Chip Expansions
Supply-demand gaps will exist unless more domestic production is developed
San Diego, CA, November 16, 2022: TECHCET—the advisory firm providing electronics and semiconductor materials market supply-chain information—forecasts that the US Basic Wet Chemicals demand will exceed 210 K metric tons in 2022, as highlighted in TECHCET’S most recent study on the US Chip Expansion Impact on the Wet Chemical Supply-Chain. This increase in demand is expected to run into a supply crunch as chip fabs ramp in demand by 2026, especially due to increased interest in US fab expansions, acquisitions, and joint ventures following the recent passage of the US CHIPS Act. While chemical suppliers have been announcing their commitment to support these expansions, it is still unclear whether it will be enough to meet the growing demand. Announcements for new chemical facilities have been announced by Kanto / Chemtrade, ChanChung, Sunlit, and MGC, to name a few. Estimates on volume demand from chip expansions is provided below:
Growth in Chemical Demand Expected to Support US Chip Expansions
Note: several of the chip fabs that are included in these estimates will not be fully ramped until 2028. Therefore, chemical demand will grow even larger than what is stated above.
“The expansion announcements by material suppliers show positive domestic support for new H2SO4 and H2O2 capacity, while UHP HF and IPA may continue to be supported with imported material until volumes and pricing can justify full plant investments,” states Lita Shon-Roy, President and CEO of TECHCET. As a result, TECHCET expects to see continued supply constraints in these areas until container and shipping availability stabilizes and inventory management adjusts to the new volumes.
For NH4OH, 45% more volume will be required by 2026. This increased demand could be supported by local production, but commitments for expansions and new capability have yet to be publicly announced. For high purity chemicals like HNO3 and H3PO4, increasing local production has been a challenge as old plants have been shut down over the years without any new facilities to replace them. As a result, imports have started to increase. The small demand volumes associated with these two chemicals may make imports more attractive to suppliers, rather than building a new plant that has poor ROI and may encounter challenges associated with stringent US environmental regulations.
The risk of US recession will also invariably impact short term demand. However, given CHIPS Act funding and the persistent growing need for more semiconductor devices for modern technology, demand for consumer products is expected to continue on a steep growth curve over the next decade.
