サマリー
この調査レポートは、電気自動車のバッテリーセルとパックレベルの材料、および電気牽引モーターの材料のトレンドを特定・分析し、これらのコンポーネントの設計と改良による材料需要を分析しています。
主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）
-
全体概要
-
はじめに
-
電気自動車用バッテリー
-
電動機
-
高電圧ケーブル
Traction batteries and motors in electric vehicles (EVs) are very different to the powertrain components of the internal-combustion engine vehicles they replace. Their meteoric rise will lead to much greater demand for several materials markets which otherwise would see only modest growth. For example, while the combustion engine and transmission relies heavily on aluminium and steel alloys, Li-ion batteries alone also require a great deal of nickel, cobalt, aluminium, lithium, copper, insulation, thermal interface materials and much more at the cell and pack level.
This comprehensive report from IDTechEx identifies and analyses trends in electric vehicle battery cell and pack-level materials, and electric traction motor materials, to determine the overall materials demand from the construction and future improvements of these components. For each, a granular breakdown is used to forecast each material required and its market value over the next 10 years.
An extensive database of electric passenger cars, collated by IDTechEx, is further used to determine trends in the battery cell and pack energy density, energy capacity, cell geometry, cell chemistry, thermal management strategy, motor technology and power output, leading to a comprehensive set of material demands and market value forecasts.
IDTechEx forecasts over 28 materials used in the construction of electric vehicle powertrains, each with shifting market shares. A rapid increase in demand is seen across several material markets after a small drop in 2020 due to COVID-19 implications for the automotive market. Source: IDTechEx report, Materials for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030.
Battery Cell Materials
Several of the raw materials used in electric vehicle components have questionable mining practices or volatile supply chains, leading OEMs to change the way they make batteries and motors. A commonly used cathode material, cobalt, has famously questionable mining practices. It is also a very expensive material with its supply and mining confined to a large majority in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo. As a result, OEMs are trending towards the use of higher nickel cathode chemistries such as NMC 622 and even NMC 811 in some new vehicles.
Another significant trend is the phase-out of LFP cathodes. The Chinese electric car market was, up until 2018, predominantly using LFP cathodes. This has now transitioned so that in 2019 only 3 % of cars were using LFP, however, the introduction of the Tesla Model 3 in China using LFP could upset this trend. Despite the reduction in market share of materials like cobalt, the rapidly increasing market for electric vehicles will drive demand for cobalt and many other materials drastically higher over the next 10 years.
Materials forecasted for the cells include aluminium, carbon, cobalt, copper, graphite, iron, lithium, manganese, nickel, silicon, phosphorous, polyvinylidene fluoride and polyolefins.
Battery Pack Materials
Cell energy density is increasing, but we also see that pack energy density is increasing. With manufacturers improving their battery designs, the mass of materials being used around the cells is steadily being reduced allowing for a lighter battery pack or more cells to be used for the same mass. This can be largely affected by the choice of material for the enclosure, with OEMs becoming more interested in composite utilisation. The thermal management strategy also has a significant impact. This includes the choice of active or passive cooling variants, thermal interface materials, thermal runaway prevention and fire-retardant materials. With greater energy density and consumer demand for fast charging, more effective thermal management is required in a smaller and lighter package. This may lead to a decrease in many battery pack materials per vehicle, but this may be overshadowed by the total market increase for EVs.
Pack materials forecasted include aluminium, copper, thermal management materials, thermal interface materials, steel, glass fibre reinforced polymers, carbon fibre reinforced polymers, inter-cell insulation and compression foams and pack fire-retardant materials.
IDTechEx considered over 150 battery-electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold between 2015-2019 to show trends in energy density by thermal management strategy and by year. Full data available in IDTechEx report, Materials for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030.
Electric Motor Materials
Alongside the batteries, the demand for electric traction motors will increase rapidly over the next 10 years, not just from the overall vehicle sales but also with the rise of vehicles using more than one motor, specifically in premium cars and heavy-duty vehicles. Critical to materials, the majority of the EV market is using motors with permanent magnet-based rotors. These materials typically contain several rare-earths such as neodymium and dysprosium, both of which have a very geographically constrained supply chain and a volatile price history. Whilst they are in a relatively small quantity in the motor, they can make up a very significant portion of the cost of the motor. We are seeing some manufacturers like Renault using motors with no magnets, whereas Tesla has transitioned to a magnet-based motor for the potential improvements in efficiency which can increase range and hence, reduce the requirements for other critical battery materials.
Motor materials forecasted include aluminium, boron, cobalt, copper, dysprosium, iron, neodymium, niobium, silicon-steel, terbium and praseodymium.
Report Summary
Materials demand from the following EV components and parts are considered:
Cathodes
Anodes
Electrolyte, separators, binders and casings
Interconnects
Housings
Thermal management
Thermal interface materials
Inter-cell pads and insulation
Fire-retardant papers/blankets
Magnets
Windings
Rotor and stator construction
Housings
High voltage cables
Market assessments:
-
Trends in battery cell composition and energy density: cathodes, anodes, electrolyte, binders and casings
-
Battery cell and pack design with automotive use cases and energy density breakdowns by cell type and thermal management strategy
-
Thermal interface materials for electric vehicle batteries
-
Battery pack enclosure and interconnect materials
-
Electric motor technologies and trends
-
The use of magnetic and rare-earth materials in motors
-
Motor winding geometries and materials
-
Automotive traction motor use cases and market breakdown
Forecast lines, material demand and market value (2020-2030):
-
Cathode materials
-
Anode materials
-
Battery cell materials
-
Thermal interface materials
-
Battery pack materials
-
Combined cell and pack materials
-
Motor magnet materials
-
Motor winding materials
-
Total motor construction materials
-
High voltage cable copper and insulation
ページTOPに戻る
目次
|
1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
|
1.1. |
Materials for Electric Vehicles |
|
1.2. |
Materials Considered in this Report |
|
1.3. |
Electric Vehicle Forecast |
|
1.4. |
Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down |
|
1.5. |
Materials for EV Powertrain |
|
1.6. |
Market Value for Materials in EV Powertrain |
|
2. |
INTRODUCTION |
|
2.1. |
What is an Electric Vehicle? |
|
2.2. |
Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle |
|
2.3. |
Electric Cars: Typical Specs |
|
2.4. |
Materials for Electric Vehicles |
|
2.5. |
Materials Considered in this Report |
|
3. |
ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERIES |
|
3.1. |
Li-ion Battery Chemistry |
|
3.1.1. |
What is a Li-ion Battery? |
|
3.1.2. |
Why Lithium? |
|
3.1.3. |
Li-ion Cathode Overview |
|
3.1.4. |
Li-ion Anode Overview |
|
3.1.5. |
Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down |
|
3.1.6. |
Changing Too Fast? |
|
3.2. |
Cell Costs and Energy Density |
|
3.2.1. |
Drivers for High-Nickel Cathodes |
|
3.2.2. |
EV Models with NMC 811 |
|
3.2.3. |
811 Commercialisation Examples |
|
3.2.4. |
Cell Energy Density Timeline |
|
3.2.5. |
Energy Density of Li-ion Cathodes |
|
3.3. |
Materials for Li-ion Batteries |
|
3.3.1. |
Potential for Raw Material Shortage |
|
3.3.2. |
Sustainability of Li-ion Materials |
|
3.3.3. |
Questionable Mining Practice |
|
3.3.4. |
Drivers and Restraints |
|
3.3.5. |
Li-ion Raw Materials in Perspective |
|
3.3.6. |
How Does Material Intensity Change? |
|
3.3.7. |
Inactive Material Intensities (exc. casings) |
|
3.4. |
Raw Materials |
|
3.4.1. |
The Elements Used in Li-ion Batteries |
|
3.4.2. |
The Li-ion Supply Chain |
|
3.4.3. |
Demand for Li-ion is Shifting |
|
3.4.4. |
Raw Materials Critical to Li-ion |
|
3.4.5. |
Li-ion Raw Material Geographical Distribution |
|
3.5. |
Lithium |
|
3.5.1. |
Lithium Introduction |
|
3.5.2. |
Where is Lithium Located? |
|
3.5.3. |
Lithium Extraction from Brines |
|
3.5.4. |
Lithium Extraction from Hard Rock |
|
3.5.5. |
Lithium Producers |
|
3.5.6. |
Lithium End Uses |
|
3.5.7. |
Forecasted Lithium Demand |
|
3.6. |
Cobalt |
|
3.6.1. |
Introduction to Cobalt |
|
3.6.2. |
Cobalt in the DRC |
|
3.6.3. |
Questionable Mining Practice |
|
3.6.4. |
Cobalt Supply |
|
3.6.5. |
Cobalt price trend |
|
3.6.6. |
Public Scrutiny of Cobalt Supply |
|
3.6.7. |
Changing Intensity of Cobalt in Li-ion |
|
3.6.8. |
Forecasted Cobalt Demand |
|
3.7. |
Nickel |
|
3.7.1. |
An Overview of Nickel |
|
3.7.2. |
Geographic Breakdown of Nickel Mining |
|
3.7.3. |
Nickel: Supply Shortage? |
|
3.7.4. |
Forecast Nickel Demand |
|
3.8. |
Cell Components |
|
3.9. |
Cathodes |
|
3.9.1. |
Cathode Material Intensities |
|
3.9.2. |
Geographical Breakdown of Cathode Production |
|
3.9.3. |
Chemistry Production Spread |
|
3.9.4. |
NMC Development: from 111 to 811 |
|
3.9.5. |
Outlook - Which Cathodes Will Be Used? |
|
3.9.6. |
Cathode Demand Forecast |
|
3.9.7. |
Price Assumptions |
|
3.9.8. |
Cathode Material Market Value |
|
3.10. |
Anodes |
|
3.10.1. |
Introduction to Graphite |
|
3.10.2. |
Natural or Synthetic in LIB? |
|
3.10.3. |
Natural Graphite for LIBs |
|
3.10.4. |
Natural Graphite Mining |
|
3.10.5. |
Where Will New Capacity Come From? |
|
3.10.6. |
Graphite Anode Suppliers |
|
3.10.7. |
Forecast Graphite Demand |
|
3.10.8. |
Introduction to Silicon Anodes |
|
3.10.9. |
Benefits from Incorporating Silicon |
|
3.10.10. |
Electrode Material Trends |
|
3.10.11. |
How Much Does Silicon Improve Energy Density? |
|
3.10.12. |
Anode Demand Forecast |
|
3.10.13. |
Anode Material Prices |
|
3.10.14. |
Anode Market Value Forecast |
|
3.11. |
Electrolyte, Separators, Binders and Casings |
|
3.11.1. |
What is in a Cell? |
|
3.11.2. |
Li-ion Electrolytes |
|
3.11.3. |
Separators |
|
3.11.4. |
Polyolefin Separator |
|
3.11.5. |
Binders |
|
3.11.6. |
Binders - Aqueous vs Non-aqueous |
|
3.12. |
Total Battery Cell Materials Forecast |
|
3.12.1. |
Battery Cell Materials Forecast |
|
3.12.2. |
Battery Cell Materials Market Value Forecast |
|
3.13. |
Li-ion Demand and Cost Analysis |
|
3.13.1. |
Largest Gigafactories |
|
3.13.2. |
Panasonic and Tesla |
|
3.13.3. |
Can Li-ion Supply Meet Demand? |
|
3.13.4. |
How Long to Build a Gigafactory? |
|
3.13.5. |
Gigafactory Investment in Europe |
|
3.13.6. |
ページTOPに戻る
Summary
この調査レポートは、電気自動車のバッテリーセルとパックレベルの材料、および電気牽引モーターの材料のトレンドを特定・分析し、これらのコンポーネントの設計と改良による材料需要を分析しています。
主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）
-
全体概要
-
はじめに
-
電気自動車用バッテリー
-
電動機
-
高電圧ケーブル
Traction batteries and motors in electric vehicles (EVs) are very different to the powertrain components of the internal-combustion engine vehicles they replace. Their meteoric rise will lead to much greater demand for several materials markets which otherwise would see only modest growth. For example, while the combustion engine and transmission relies heavily on aluminium and steel alloys, Li-ion batteries alone also require a great deal of nickel, cobalt, aluminium, lithium, copper, insulation, thermal interface materials and much more at the cell and pack level.
This comprehensive report from IDTechEx identifies and analyses trends in electric vehicle battery cell and pack-level materials, and electric traction motor materials, to determine the overall materials demand from the construction and future improvements of these components. For each, a granular breakdown is used to forecast each material required and its market value over the next 10 years.
An extensive database of electric passenger cars, collated by IDTechEx, is further used to determine trends in the battery cell and pack energy density, energy capacity, cell geometry, cell chemistry, thermal management strategy, motor technology and power output, leading to a comprehensive set of material demands and market value forecasts.
IDTechEx forecasts over 28 materials used in the construction of electric vehicle powertrains, each with shifting market shares. A rapid increase in demand is seen across several material markets after a small drop in 2020 due to COVID-19 implications for the automotive market. Source: IDTechEx report, Materials for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030.
Battery Cell Materials
Several of the raw materials used in electric vehicle components have questionable mining practices or volatile supply chains, leading OEMs to change the way they make batteries and motors. A commonly used cathode material, cobalt, has famously questionable mining practices. It is also a very expensive material with its supply and mining confined to a large majority in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo. As a result, OEMs are trending towards the use of higher nickel cathode chemistries such as NMC 622 and even NMC 811 in some new vehicles.
Another significant trend is the phase-out of LFP cathodes. The Chinese electric car market was, up until 2018, predominantly using LFP cathodes. This has now transitioned so that in 2019 only 3 % of cars were using LFP, however, the introduction of the Tesla Model 3 in China using LFP could upset this trend. Despite the reduction in market share of materials like cobalt, the rapidly increasing market for electric vehicles will drive demand for cobalt and many other materials drastically higher over the next 10 years.
Materials forecasted for the cells include aluminium, carbon, cobalt, copper, graphite, iron, lithium, manganese, nickel, silicon, phosphorous, polyvinylidene fluoride and polyolefins.
Battery Pack Materials
Cell energy density is increasing, but we also see that pack energy density is increasing. With manufacturers improving their battery designs, the mass of materials being used around the cells is steadily being reduced allowing for a lighter battery pack or more cells to be used for the same mass. This can be largely affected by the choice of material for the enclosure, with OEMs becoming more interested in composite utilisation. The thermal management strategy also has a significant impact. This includes the choice of active or passive cooling variants, thermal interface materials, thermal runaway prevention and fire-retardant materials. With greater energy density and consumer demand for fast charging, more effective thermal management is required in a smaller and lighter package. This may lead to a decrease in many battery pack materials per vehicle, but this may be overshadowed by the total market increase for EVs.
Pack materials forecasted include aluminium, copper, thermal management materials, thermal interface materials, steel, glass fibre reinforced polymers, carbon fibre reinforced polymers, inter-cell insulation and compression foams and pack fire-retardant materials.
IDTechEx considered over 150 battery-electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold between 2015-2019 to show trends in energy density by thermal management strategy and by year. Full data available in IDTechEx report, Materials for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030.
Electric Motor Materials
Alongside the batteries, the demand for electric traction motors will increase rapidly over the next 10 years, not just from the overall vehicle sales but also with the rise of vehicles using more than one motor, specifically in premium cars and heavy-duty vehicles. Critical to materials, the majority of the EV market is using motors with permanent magnet-based rotors. These materials typically contain several rare-earths such as neodymium and dysprosium, both of which have a very geographically constrained supply chain and a volatile price history. Whilst they are in a relatively small quantity in the motor, they can make up a very significant portion of the cost of the motor. We are seeing some manufacturers like Renault using motors with no magnets, whereas Tesla has transitioned to a magnet-based motor for the potential improvements in efficiency which can increase range and hence, reduce the requirements for other critical battery materials.
Motor materials forecasted include aluminium, boron, cobalt, copper, dysprosium, iron, neodymium, niobium, silicon-steel, terbium and praseodymium.
Report Summary
Materials demand from the following EV components and parts are considered:
Cathodes
Anodes
Electrolyte, separators, binders and casings
Interconnects
Housings
Thermal management
Thermal interface materials
Inter-cell pads and insulation
Fire-retardant papers/blankets
Magnets
Windings
Rotor and stator construction
Housings
High voltage cables
Market assessments:
-
Trends in battery cell composition and energy density: cathodes, anodes, electrolyte, binders and casings
-
Battery cell and pack design with automotive use cases and energy density breakdowns by cell type and thermal management strategy
-
Thermal interface materials for electric vehicle batteries
-
Battery pack enclosure and interconnect materials
-
Electric motor technologies and trends
-
The use of magnetic and rare-earth materials in motors
-
Motor winding geometries and materials
-
Automotive traction motor use cases and market breakdown
Forecast lines, material demand and market value (2020-2030):
-
Cathode materials
-
Anode materials
-
Battery cell materials
-
Thermal interface materials
-
Battery pack materials
-
Combined cell and pack materials
-
Motor magnet materials
-
Motor winding materials
-
Total motor construction materials
-
High voltage cable copper and insulation
ページTOPに戻る
Table of Contents
|
1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
|
1.1. |
Materials for Electric Vehicles |
|
1.2. |
Materials Considered in this Report |
|
1.3. |
Electric Vehicle Forecast |
|
1.4. |
Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down |
|
1.5. |
Materials for EV Powertrain |
|
1.6. |
Market Value for Materials in EV Powertrain |
|
2. |
INTRODUCTION |
|
2.1. |
What is an Electric Vehicle? |
|
2.2. |
Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle |
|
2.3. |
Electric Cars: Typical Specs |
|
2.4. |
Materials for Electric Vehicles |
|
2.5. |
Materials Considered in this Report |
|
3. |
ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERIES |
|
3.1. |
Li-ion Battery Chemistry |
|
3.1.1. |
What is a Li-ion Battery? |
|
3.1.2. |
Why Lithium? |
|
3.1.3. |
Li-ion Cathode Overview |
|
3.1.4. |
Li-ion Anode Overview |
|
3.1.5. |
Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down |
|
3.1.6. |
Changing Too Fast? |
|
3.2. |
Cell Costs and Energy Density |
|
3.2.1. |
Drivers for High-Nickel Cathodes |
|
3.2.2. |
EV Models with NMC 811 |
|
3.2.3. |
811 Commercialisation Examples |
|
3.2.4. |
Cell Energy Density Timeline |
|
3.2.5. |
Energy Density of Li-ion Cathodes |
|
3.3. |
Materials for Li-ion Batteries |
|
3.3.1. |
Potential for Raw Material Shortage |
|
3.3.2. |
Sustainability of Li-ion Materials |
|
3.3.3. |
Questionable Mining Practice |
|
3.3.4. |
Drivers and Restraints |
|
3.3.5. |
Li-ion Raw Materials in Perspective |
|
3.3.6. |
How Does Material Intensity Change? |
|
3.3.7. |
Inactive Material Intensities (exc. casings) |
|
3.4. |
Raw Materials |
|
3.4.1. |
The Elements Used in Li-ion Batteries |
|
3.4.2. |
The Li-ion Supply Chain |
|
3.4.3. |
Demand for Li-ion is Shifting |
|
3.4.4. |
Raw Materials Critical to Li-ion |
|
3.4.5. |
Li-ion Raw Material Geographical Distribution |
|
3.5. |
Lithium |
|
3.5.1. |
Lithium Introduction |
|
3.5.2. |
Where is Lithium Located? |
|
3.5.3. |
Lithium Extraction from Brines |
|
3.5.4. |
Lithium Extraction from Hard Rock |
|
3.5.5. |
Lithium Producers |
|
3.5.6. |
Lithium End Uses |
|
3.5.7. |
Forecasted Lithium Demand |
|
3.6. |
Cobalt |
|
3.6.1. |
Introduction to Cobalt |
|
3.6.2. |
Cobalt in the DRC |
|
3.6.3. |
Questionable Mining Practice |
|
3.6.4. |
Cobalt Supply |
|
3.6.5. |
Cobalt price trend |
|
3.6.6. |
Public Scrutiny of Cobalt Supply |
|
3.6.7. |
Changing Intensity of Cobalt in Li-ion |
|
3.6.8. |
Forecasted Cobalt Demand |
|
3.7. |
Nickel |
|
3.7.1. |
An Overview of Nickel |
|
3.7.2. |
Geographic Breakdown of Nickel Mining |
|
3.7.3. |
Nickel: Supply Shortage? |
|
3.7.4. |
Forecast Nickel Demand |
|
3.8. |
Cell Components |
|
3.9. |
Cathodes |
|
3.9.1. |
Cathode Material Intensities |
|
3.9.2. |
Geographical Breakdown of Cathode Production |
|
3.9.3. |
Chemistry Production Spread |
|
3.9.4. |
NMC Development: from 111 to 811 |
|
3.9.5. |
Outlook - Which Cathodes Will Be Used? |
|
3.9.6. |
Cathode Demand Forecast |
|
3.9.7. |
Price Assumptions |
|
3.9.8. |
Cathode Material Market Value |
|
3.10. |
Anodes |
|
3.10.1. |
Introduction to Graphite |
|
3.10.2. |
Natural or Synthetic in LIB? |
|
3.10.3. |
Natural Graphite for LIBs |
|
3.10.4. |
Natural Graphite Mining |
|
3.10.5. |
Where Will New Capacity Come From? |
|
3.10.6. |
Graphite Anode Suppliers |
|
3.10.7. |
Forecast Graphite Demand |
|
3.10.8. |
Introduction to Silicon Anodes |
|
3.10.9. |
Benefits from Incorporating Silicon |
|
3.10.10. |
Electrode Material Trends |
|
3.10.11. |
How Much Does Silicon Improve Energy Density? |
|
3.10.12. |
Anode Demand Forecast |
|
3.10.13. |
Anode Material Prices |
|
3.10.14. |
Anode Market Value Forecast |
|
3.11. |
Electrolyte, Separators, Binders and Casings |
|
3.11.1. |
What is in a Cell? |
|
3.11.2. |
Li-ion Electrolytes |
|
3.11.3. |
Separators |
|
3.11.4. |
Polyolefin Separator |
|
3.11.5. |
Binders |
|
3.11.6. |
Binders - Aqueous vs Non-aqueous |
|
3.12. |
Total Battery Cell Materials Forecast |
|
3.12.1. |
Battery Cell Materials Forecast |
|
3.12.2. |
Battery Cell Materials Market Value Forecast |
|
3.13. |
Li-ion Demand and Cost Analysis |
|
3.13.1. |
Largest Gigafactories |
|
3.13.2. |
Panasonic and Tesla |
|
3.13.3. |
Can Li-ion Supply Meet Demand? |
|
3.13.4. |
How Long to Build a Gigafactory? |
|
3.13.5. |
Gigafactory Investment in Europe |
|
3.13.6. |
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3)お客様指定、もしくは弊社の発注書をメール添付にて発送してください。
4)データリソース社からレポート発行元の調査会社へ納品手配します。
5) 調査会社からお客様へ納品されます。最近は、pdfにてのメール納品が大半です。
お支払方法の方法はどのようになっていますか?
納品と同時にデータリソース社よりお客様へ請求書（必要に応じて納品書も）を発送いたします。
お客様よりデータリソース社へ（通常は円払い）の御振り込みをお願いします。
請求書は、納品日の日付で発行しますので、翌月最終営業日までの当社指定口座への振込みをお願いします。振込み手数料は御社負担にてお願いします。
お客様の御支払い条件が60日以上の場合は御相談ください。
尚、初めてのお取引先や個人の場合、前払いをお願いすることもあります。ご了承のほど、お願いします。
データリソース社はどのような会社ですか?
当社は、世界各国の主要調査会社・レポート出版社と提携し、世界各国の市場調査レポートや技術動向レポートなどを日本国内の企業・公官庁及び教育研究機関に提供しております。
世界各国の「市場・技術・法規制などの」実情を調査・収集される時には、データリソース社にご相談ください。
お客様の御要望にあったデータや情報を抽出する為のレポート紹介や調査のアドバイスも致します。
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