Summary
米国調査会社インサイドクァンタムテクノロジー（Inside Quantum Technology）の調査レポート「量子コンピューティング：7年間の市場予測」は、量子コンピュータの数量・金額ベースでの予測を初めて公開したレポートである。
本レポートでは、世界各国の量子コンピュータ企業の現在の活動を調査し、技術別、エンドユーザーの種類別、ベンダーの国籍別にブレイクアウトを行い、数量・金額ベースでの生産量とインストールベース両方の予測を構築している。また、クラウドアクセスの収益やソフトウェアの予測についても記載している。
Description
This report is the first publicly available forecast of quantum computers in volume and value terms. The report examines the current activities of quantum computer companies around the world around the world and builds a forecast of both production and install base in both volume and value terms with breakouts by technology, end-user type and vendor nationality. There are also forecasts of cloud access revenues and software.
The report begins with a survey of the evolution of quantum computing technologies and products. The focus is on today’s “supercomputer class” quantum computers. However, the report also briefly discusses the likelihood of the evolution of “desktop quantum computers.” The report also surveys around 30 end-user companies that are already trialing quantum computers for internal use.
Quantum Computing: A Seven-year Market Forecast
Report IQT-QCM-1020
Published October 19, 2020
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Table of Contents
Quantum Computing: A Seven-year Market Forecast
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 The Current State of Quantum Computers
1.1.2 What to Expect after “Quantum Advantage”
1.1.3 Emerging Potential Market Applications
1.2 Quantum Computing: Market Inflection Points
1.2.1 The Next Three Inflection Points for Quantum Computing
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Quantum Computing Technologies and Products
2.1 Hardware: Quantum Machines versus Annealers versus Classical Machines
2.2 Quantum Annealers
2.2.1 Two Types of Annealers
2.2.2 Annealing Process
2.2.3 Applications for Annealers
2.2.4 The Future of Annealing
2.3 Superconducting Qubits
2.4 Trapped Ion Computers
2.4.1 How Trapped Ion Computers Work
2.4.2 Trapped Ion Computers: Vendors and Future in the Marketplace
2.5 Spin Ion Computers
2.6 Topological Quantum Computers
2.7 Photonic Quantum Computers
2.7.1 Photonics and Qubits
2.7.2 The Future of Photonic Quantum Computers
2.8 Software for Quantum Computers: Algorithms, Programming and Error Protection
2.9 Factors Retarding the Market for Quantum Computing Applications and Software
2.9.1 Limitations due to Core Technologies
2.9.2 Timeframe for Quantum Advantage
2.9.3 The Role of Error Correction
2.10 Performance Measures for Quantum Computers
2.10.1 Key Milestones Achieved by Quantum Computers in Recent Years
2.10.2 Work at Oak Ridge (ORNL)
2.10.3 How Important is the Number of Qubits?
2.10.4 Quantum Volume
2.11 Commercialization Models and Potential Clients
2.11.1 Direct Purchase
2.11.2 Cloud Access
2.12 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Three: Markets for Quantum Computers
3.1 Quantum Computing Applications
3.1.1 Simulations
3.1.2 Optimization Problems
3.1.3 Artificial Intelligence
3.2 Of Hype and Business Cases
3.3 Financial Industry Use of Quantum Computing
3.3.1 Barclays
3.3.2 BBVA
3.3.3 Citigroup
3.3.4 Commonwealth Bank of Australia
3.3.5 Goldman Sachs
3.3.6 HSBC
3.3.7 JPMorgan Chase
3.3.8 NatWest
3.3.9 Nomura Securities
3.3.10 Standard Chartered
3.3.11 UBS
3.3.12 Wells Fargo
3.4 Aerospace and Defense
3.4.1 Airbus
3.4.2 Boeing
3.4.3 Lockheed Martin
3.4.4 NASA
3.4.5 Raytheon
3.5 Quantum Computing for Transportation and the Automotive Industry
3.5.1 BMW
3.5.2 Daimler-Benz
3.5.3 Ford
3.5.4 Quantum Computing at Toyota and DENSO
3.5.5 Volkswagen
3.6 Materials and Pharmaceutical Design
3.6.1 Drug Discovery
3.6.2 Toxicity Studies
3.6.3 Neuromedicine
3.6.4 Protein Folding Simulation
3.6.5 Novel Superconducting Materials
3.6.6 Biogen and Accenture
3.6.7 DowDuPont
3.6.8 IBM
3.6.9 Menten AI
3.6.10 WuXi NextCODE Genetics
3.7 Quantum Computing in Planning and General Management
3.7.1 Save-on-Foods
3.7.2 Web Searching
3.8 Quantum Computing in Healthcare
3.8.1 Bayer and Atos
3.9 Government and Military
3.10 Quantum Computing by Region
3.10.2 Europe
3.10.3 China
3.10.4 Japan
Chapter Four: Quantum Computer Manufacturers and Other Notable Companies
4.1 Firms to Watch in the Quantum Computer Hardware Space
4.2 Alibaba (China)
4.3 D-Wave (Canada)
4.3.1 D-Wave Qubits
4.3.2 Real Customers and Cloud Access
4.4 Google (United States)
4.4.1 Sycamore
4.4.2 Google AI
4.4.3 Google’s Future in Quantum Computing
4.5 Hitachi
4.6 Honeywell (United States)
4.6.1 The Honeywell Quantum Computer
4.6.2 Honeywell Quantum Software
4.7 IBM (United States)
4.7.1 IBM Research and Development
4.8 Intel (United States)
4.8.1 Quantum Development Timeline
4.8.2 Collaborations
4.9 IonQ (United States)
4.9.1 The IonQ Computer
4.10 Microsoft (United States)
4.10.1 Microsoft’s Distinctive Approach
4.11 PsiQuantum
4.12 QuTech
4.13 Rigetti Computing (United States)
4.13.1 Aspen-7 and Ancestor Machines
4.13.2 Current Partnerships
4.13.3 QxBranch Acquisition
4.14 Xanadu (Canada)
About Inside Quantum Technology
About the Analyst
Exhibit 1-1: Milestones and Timeframe in Quantum Computing Future History
Exhibit 1-2: Key Inflection Points for Quantum Computing Applications
Exhibit 2-1: Quantum Machines versus Annealers versus Classical Machines
Exhibit 2-2: Types of Qubit versus Firms Building Computers Based on Them
Exhibit 2-3: Key Milestones Achieved by Quantum Computers
Exhibit 3-1: Uses of Quantum Computers by End-User Group and Applications
Exhibit 3-2: Quantum Computer Functionality by Type of End User
Exhibit 3-3: Potential Uses for Quantum Computers in Aerospace and Defense
Exhibit 4-1: Ten Firms to Watch in the Quantum Computing Space
SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST APPENDIX (Excel Spreadsheet)
Tab 1: Companies –
Forecasts of quantum computer install base, computer produced and hours of cloud access provided by leading vendors
Tab 2: Hardware –
Forecasts of quantum computers by technology type and end-user industry
Tab 3: Access (Cloud Services)
Forecasts of cloud services by technology type and end-user industry
Tab 4: Software (Third-party)
Forecasts of third-party software by type of computer and end-user industry
Tab 5: Countries
Forecasts of quantum computers, software, and cloud services by major countries and regions
Tab 6 Forecast Summary
Press Release
Quantum Computing Market is Expected to Reach $2.2 Billion by 2026
November 17, 2020
New York, NY: The quantum computing market will reach $ 2.2 Billion by 2026 according to IQT Research’s new report, Quantum Computing: A Seven-year Market Forecast. The report
profiles the strategies of the leading quantum computing vendors and builds a detailed market forecast based on the companies’ plans for the future. The firms profiled include D-Wave, Google,
Honeywell, IBM, Intel, IonQ, Microsoft, NEC, Rigetti, Alibaba, Hitachi, PsiQuantum and QuTech. In addition to forecasting quantum computing hardware, the report also projects cloud access to quantum computers and third-party software.
About the Report
The report forecasts the following types of computers: superconducting, topological, trapped ion, photonic and annealing. End-user markets covered by the report include government and military, R&D, financial, transport and automotive, pharmaceuticals and chemical, and manufacturing.
The report consists of two parts. The first part is a written analysis of the current state and future evolution of quantum computing. In addition to the profiles mentioned above, this part of Research’s report also discusses the factors that are holding back the growth of the quantum computing chapters. It also provides profiles of approximately 30 organizations which are currently working with quantum computers in the financial services industry, aerospace and defense, materials and pharmaceutical design, business planning, and healthcare.
The second part of Quantum Computing: A Seven-year Market Forecast is in the form of a spreadsheet with forecasts of production (value and volume) and install base; cloud access revenues (broken out by type of computer technology and end user industry); third-party software (broken out by type of computer and end user industry), along with a breakout of quantum computing revenues by country/region.
Some of our Findings
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The number of installed quantum computers will reach around 180 in 2026, with about 45 machines produced in that year. These include both machines installed at the quantum computer companies themselves that are accessed by quantum services as well as customer premises machines.
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Cloud access revenues will likely dominate as a revenue source for quantum computing companies, accounting for 75 percent of all quantum computing revenues in 2026. Although in the long run quantum computers may be more widely purchased, today potential end users are more inclined to do quantum computing over the cloud rather than make technologically risky and expensive investments in quantum computing equipment.
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In general, no financial organization that is using quantum computing currently is yet making quantum computing part of its day-to-day operations. Some seem to be very close to making this happen and are hiring staff at a level that makes one think they are on the verge. By 2026, IQT Research expects revenues from cloud access to reach around $410 million, making financial institutions the largest single end-user segment of the quantum access cloud market.
About Inside Quantum Technology
Inside Quantum technology is the first industry analyst firm to be entirely dedicated to meeting the strategic information and analysis needs of the emerging quantum technology sector. In addition to publishing reports on critical business opportunities in the quantum technology sector, Inside Quantum Technology runs a popular daily newsfeed (Quantum Technology News) on business- related happenings in quantum technology.
