Summary

この調査レポートは5Gの技術、インフラ、用途、デバイスを詳細に調査し、主要セグメント別分析や2030年までの市場予測を提供しています。

Overview

This research evaluates the outlook for 5G technology, infrastructure, devices, applications, and services. The report also assesses the technologies, capabilities, and anticipated communications and computing solutions beyond 5G. The report provides analysis for leading 5G and edge computing supported applications and services along with forecasting from 2020 to 2025, and in some cases, through 2030.

5th generation mobile networks (5G) is a major phase of mobile communications. 5G is poised to deliver higher data transfer rates for mission critical communication. 5G will allow massive broadband capacities enabling high speed communication for various industries and applications such as live TV, IoT, robotics and AI applications.

It is also a new standard that relies upon various supporting technologies including millimeter wave propagation, IPv6 transmission protocol, and many others including some that are still in the R&D stage with major infrastructure providers.  Among other major differences as compared to the fourth generation of cellular, 5G network demands higher data rate in a range of several gigabits per seconds (Gbps) and this can be achieved using steerable antennas with Millimeter Wave (mmWave) technologies.

5G will be based on a transformed Radio Access Network (RAN) and Core Network (CN) for carriers. There were changes with LTE, such as leveraging IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) for Voice over LTE (VoLTE). However, the changes with 5G are considerably larger, and the infrastructure is much more purpose-built with an emphasis on a Services Based Architecture (SBA) approach.
This SBA approach will include tight integration with edge computing networks as identified by the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) for integration with Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC). This will be deployed in a manner in which MEC supports 5G to preserve the tremendous throughput and latency improvements that will be gained by using 5G versus LTE.
Many enterprise and industrial solutions will emerge that depend upon 5G that were previously impractical due to limitations of other wireless technologies. For example, WiFi is not reliable enough for certain IoT related applications such as a sensor that wakes-up to send a message about critical measurements for industrial equipment.

However, 5G technology (and resulting apps and services) are anticipated to be largely a stepping stone to the 6G technology market. Stated differently, just as 3G did not add substantive value, largely a bridge to 4G/LTE, we also see 5G acting as a catalyst for the 6G market.

Mind Commerce sees this as the case for a few key reasons including: (1) 5G will have minimal effect in the near-term for the consumer segment, (2) Advanced 5G and edge computing supported private wireless solutions for enterprise and industrial sectors will facilitate innovation in smart buildings, smart factories, and automation in general, and (3) 5G will pave the way for expansion of immersive technologies (AR, VR, and haptic Internet), but a truly rich user experience will not come until the 6G technology market is fully developed.

Target Audience:

• Mobile Network Operators
• API management companies
• SDN and virtualization vendors
• Telecom managed service providers
• Wireless/mobile infrastructure providers
• Software, Application, and Content Providers

Select Report Findings:

• Over 50% of all new applications will be designed for 5G optimization by 2027
• The combination of 5G and edge computing will lead a revolution in application development
• One of the most important markets for 5G will be private wireless enterprise and industrial networks
• The leading region for 5GNR based applications will be Asia Pac followed by North America (primarily the United States)
• 5G will drive the need for many OSS/BSS upgrades on the part of communication service providers to keep pace with OTT service providers

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents:

1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2.0 INTRODUCTION TO 5G TECHNOLOGY
2.1 5G TECHNOLOGY AND FUNCTIONALITY
2.1.1 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 5G AND 4G
2.2 WHAT 5G TECHNOLOGY CAN OFFER?
2.3 OSI LAYERS IN 5G
2.3.1 PHYSICAL AND MEDIUM ACCESS CONTROL LAYER
2.3.2 NETWORK LAYER
2.3.3 OPEN TRANSPORT PROTOCOL (OTA) LAYER
2.3.4 APPLICATION LAYER
2.4 5G MOTIVATION AND TIMELINE
2.5 5G SPECTRUM OPTIONS AND UTILIZATION
2.6 ELEMENTS OF 5G
2.7 5G CHALLENGES
2.7.1 TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS AND SERVICE CHARACTERISTICS
2.7.2 STANDARDIZATION
2.7.3 NETWORK CHALLENGES
2.7.4 MOBILE DEVICE CHALLENGES
2.7.5 APPLICATION CHALLENGES
2.8 TECHNOLOGICAL REQUIREMENTS OF 5G
3.0 5G ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
3.1 MASSIVE MIMO
3.2 NETWORK FUNCTIONS VIRTUALIZATION (NFV)
3.3 SDN AND VIRTUALIZATION
3.4 COGNITIVE RADIOS (CRS) AND TRANSMISSION TECHNOLOGIES
3.5 SELF-ORGANIZING NETWORKS (SONS)
3.6 COMMUNICATION, NAVIGATION, SENSING AND SERVICES
3.7 COOPERATIVE COMMUNICATION FUNCTIONS
3.7.1 MULTI-HOP
3.7.2 CACHING
3.8 AUTOMATED NETWORK ORGANIZATION 2
3.8.1 SELF-CONFIGURATION
3.8.2 AUTOMATIC NEIGHBOUR RELATION (ANR)
3.8.3 SELF-HEALING
3.8.4 SELF-ORGANIZATION
3.9 ADVANCED TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
3.10 VISIBLE LIGHT COMMUNICATIONS (VLCS) 30
3.11 ENERGY EFFICIENCY
3.12 MILLIMETER WAVE (MMWAVE)
3.13 MASSIVE M2M COMMUNICATIONS
3.14 C-RAN ARCHITECTURE
3.15 HETNET SOLUTION
3.16 H-CRAN SOLUTION
3.17 LARGE-SCALE COOPERATIVE SPATIAL SIGNAL PROCESSING (LS-CSSP)
3.18 SDR
3.19 SPECTRUM AND SATELLITE
3.20 DRONES, ROBOTS, AND HIGH-ALTITUDE BALLOONS
3.21 NEXT GEN TECHNOLOGY
3.21.1 CROSS LAYER CONTROLLER
3.21.2 ENERGY AWARE
3.21.3 SECURITY
4.0 5G REGULATORY CONTRIBUTOR
4.1 5G ROADMAP
4.1.1 5G REQUIREMENTS 2015 - 2020
4.1.2 5G WIRELESS SUBSYSTEM 2015 - 2020
4.1.3 NETWORK VIRTUALISATION & SOFTWARE NETWORKS 2015 - 2020
4.1.4 CONVERGED CONNECTIVITY
4.2 GSMA
4.3 OFCOM UK
4.4 METIS
4.5 5G PPP
4.6 NGMN
4.7 4G AMERICAS
5.0 5G SERVICE APPLICATIONS IN M2M AND IOT ENVIRONMENT
5.1 5G BUSINESS CASE
5.1.1 SHARING SPECTRUM AND SERVICE SPECTRUM
5.2 POTENTIAL 5G APPLICATION USE CASES
5.2.1 VIRTUAL REALITY OR TACTILE INTERNET
5.2.2 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AND CONNECTED CARS
5.2.3 WIRELESS CLOUD-BASED OFFICE AND MULTI-PERSON VIDEOCONFERENCING
5.2.4 M2M CONNECTIVITY
5.2.5 50+ MBPS EVERYWHERE
5.2.6 HIGH SPEED TRAIN
5.2.7 REMOTE COMPUTING
5.2.8 NON-STATIONARY HOT SPOTS
5.2.9 3D CONNECTIVITY: AIRCRAFT
5.2.10 SMART CLOTHING
5.2.11 SENSOR NETWORKS
5.2.12 NATURAL DISASTER
5.2.13 CONTROL NETWORK FOR ROBOTS
5.2.14 EHEALTH
5.2.15 3D CONNECTIVITY: DRONES
5.2.16 PUBLIC SAFETY
5.2.17 CONTEXT AWARE SERVICE
5.3 BRAND NEW SERVICES CAPABILITY
6.0 5G ECOSYSTEM
6.1 5G REQUIREMENT
6.1.1 USER DRIVEN REQUIREMENT
6.1.2 NETWORK DRIVEN REQUIREMENT
6.2 STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS
6.3 STAKEHOLDER EXPECTATION: KPI’S OF 5G TECHNOLOGY
6.3.1 PERFORMANCE CHALLENGES
6.3.2 SYSTEM LEVEL CHALLENGES
6.4 5G CHANNEL MODEL
6.5 APIS AND SLAS TO EXTERNAL ACTORS
6.6 KEY DRIVERS
6.7 DISRUPTIVE CAPABILITIES
6.8 DESIGN PRINCIPLES
6.9 5G BUSINESS MODEL
6.10 5G VALUE PROPOSITION
7.0 5G STANDARDIZATION AND RESEARCH
7.1 MAJOR EVENT
7.2 RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION
7.3 STANDARDIZATION ACTIVITIES
7.4 ITU RADIO COMMUNICATION SECTOR (ITU-R)
7.5 3GPP
7.5.1 IMT 2020
7.5.2 RAN STUDY
7.6 GSMA
7.7 NGMN ALLIANCE
7.8 TIA
7.9 EUROPEAN COMMISSION (EC)
7.9.1 METIS
7.9.2 5G PPP
7.9.3 5G PPP PROJECTS
7.9.4 5GNOW
7.10 NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS IN EASTERN ASIA
7.10.1 CHINA IMT-2020
7.10.2 JAPAN ARIB 20B AH
7.10.3 KOREA 5G FORUM
7.10.4 CHINA’S 863-5G PROJECT
7.11 MOBILE OPERATOR AND VENDORS
7.11.1 SK TELECOM AND ERICSSON
7.11.2 HUAWEI AND SAMSUNG
7.11.3 NTT DOCOMO AND MULTIPLE VENDORS
7.11.4 TURKCELL AND ERICSSON
7.11.5 5G NORMA (NOKIA AND SK TELECOM)
7.11.6 HUAWEI AND ERICSSON
7.12 FANTASTIC-5G
7.13 5GIC
7.14 NYU WIRELESS
8.0 5G VENDORS AND COMPANY ANALYSIS
8.1 ERICSSON
8.1.1 5G COLLABORATION AND COMMITMENT
8.1.2 5G STRATEGY AND USE CASES
8.1.3 5G TRIAL COMMITMENT
8.2 ALCATEL-LUCENT
8.2.1 5G RESEARCH AND CONTRIBUTIONS
8.2.2 5G STRATEGY
8.2.3 5G SOLUTIONS
8.3 FUJITSU
8.3.1 5G STRATEGY AND SOLUTIONS
8.3.2 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.3.3 5G TRIAL COMMITMENT
8.4 HUAWEI
8.4.1 5G VISION
8.4.2 5G STRATEGY
8.4.3 5G COLLABORATION AND CONTRIBUTION
8.5 INTEL
8.5.1 5G STRATEGY
8.5.2 5G COLLABORATION AND CONTRIBUTION
8.6 NEC
8.6.1 5G STRATEGY
8.6.2 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.6.3 5G TRIAL COMMITMENT
8.7 SAMSUNG
8.7.1 5G STRATEGY AND VISION
8.7.2 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.7.3 5G COLLABORATION
8.7.4 5G TRIAL COMMITMENT
8.8 ZTE
8.8.1 5G STRATEGY
8.8.2 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.8.3 5G TRIAL COMMITMENT
8.9 QUALCOMM
8.9.1 5G STRATEGY
8.9.2 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.10 NOKIA NETWORKS
8.10.1 5G VISION
8.10.2 5G STRATEGY
8.10.3 5G CONTRIBUTION AND COLLABORATION
8.10.4 5G TRIAL COMMITMENT
8.11 CHINA MOBILE
8.11.1 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.12 DEUTSCHE TELEKOM
8.12.1 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.13 NTT DOCOMO
8.13.1 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.14 SK TELECOM
8.14.1 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.15 BROADCOM
8.15.1 5G CONTRIBUTION
8.16 LG U+
8.17 SINGTEL
9.0 5G INVESTMENT AND SUBSCRIPTION FORECAST
9.1 GLOBAL 5G R&D AND TRIAL INVESTMENTS 2015 - 2030
9.1.1 5G INVESTMENT BY CATEGORY 2015 – 2020 VS. 2020 – 2030
9.2 LTE ADVANCE AND 5G SUBSCRIPTION 2020 – 2030
9.3 5G ONLY SUBSCRIPTION 2022 – 2030
9.3.1 5G ONLY SUBSCRIPTIONS BY REGIONS 2022 – 2030
9.4 MOBILE OPERATORS' 5G EXPECTATION 2015
9.4.1 NETWORK LEVEL EXPECTATION
9.4.2 SPECTRUM USAGE EXPECTATION
9.4.3 SERVICE LEVEL EXPECTATION
9.4.4 5G DEVELOPMENT BY REGIONS
9.4.5 5G COMMERCIAL LAUNCHING
9.5 DATA TRAFFIC, VIDEO, AND DOWNLOAD SPEED PROJECTION 2020 - 2030
9.6 5G INVESTMENT CASE ANALYSIS
9.6.1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION
9.6.2 HUAWEI
9.6.3 SOUTH KOREA
9.6.4 ZTE
9.6.5 HORIZON 2020
9.7 QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY AND 6G INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
10.0 5G IMPLICATION FOR TELECOM INDUSTRY
10.1 SPECTRUM AND COVERAGE IMPLICATIONS
10.2 ONE MILLISECOND LATENCY
10.3 BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
11.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
11.1 END-TO-END ECOSYSTEM
11.2 5G CONSIDERATIONS
11.2.1 5G ARRIVAL DEPENDS ON SPECIFICATIONS AND ADOPTION
11.2.2 NEW RAN WILL IMPROVE MOBILE NETWORKS
11.2.3 IMMEDIATE TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS
11.2.4 LTE MAY SLOW DOWN 5G GROWTH
11.2.5 USE OF GOVERNMENTAL INTEREST AND RESOURCES
11.2.6 MORE SUSTAINABLE OPERATOR INVESTMENT MODEL IN TERMS OF CAPACITY
11.3 5G VALUE CREATION
11.3.1 FOR CONSUMERS
11.3.2 FOR ENTERPRISES
11.3.3 FOR VERTICALS
11.3.4 FOR 3RD PARTY PARTNERS
11.4 RECOMMENDATION FOR VALUE CHAIN PARTNERS
11.4.1 DISRUPTIVE NETWORK ARCHITECTURE
11.4.2 ACCESS
11.4.3 SYSTEM LEVEL PRINCIPLES
11.4.4 RIGHT BUSINESS MODEL
11.4.5 STAKEHOLDER COMMUNITY
11.4.6 POLICY AND STANDARDIZATION FRAMEWORK

Figures

Figure 1: Core Differences between 5G and 4G
Figure 2: Sample Specifications for 5G
Figure 3: Conceptual 5G Mobile Device
Figure 4: Mobile Terminal Network Layer in 5G Networks
Figure 5: 5G Timeline 2008 – 2021
Figure 6: 5G Challenges: Mobile SoC Performance vs. Energy Efficiency
Figure 7: 5G Technological Components
Figure 8: Massive MIMO Concept
Figure 9: NFV in H-RAN Solution
Figure 10: SDN Architecture
Figure 11: SDN Supporting Layers
Figure 12 Self-Organizing Networks (SONs) in H-RAN
Figure 13: H-RAN Application of 5G Systems
Figure 14: Centralized and Distribution LS-CSSP in H-CRANs
Figure 15: Software Defined Radio Network
Figure 16: Hybrid Architecture of SDN & SDR in 5G Network
Figure 17: Role of Satellite in 5G Communication System
Figure 18: METIS Regulatory Consortium
Figure 19: METIS Regulatory Framework
Figure 20: 5G Service Application Areas
Figure 21: Potential 5G Service Chart and Bandwidth & Latency Requirement
Figure 22: New Service Capabilities in 5G Environment
Figure 23: 5G Disruptive Capabilities
Figure 24: Performance Indicators of Disruptive Capabilities in 5G Network
Figure 25: 5G Network Design Architecture and Service Division
Figure 26: 5G Business Models
Figure 27: Key 5G Initiatives and Development Timeline 2012 – 2020
Figure 28: 5G Exploration to Development Phases 2014 - 2020
Figure 29: 5G Standardization Roadmap 2014 - 2024
Figure 30: 3GPP 5G Timeline
Figure 31: METIS HTs Structure
Figure 32: METIS WPs Structure
Figure 33: National 863 5G Project Phases 2013 – 2015
Figure 34: 863 5G Project Promotional Framework
Figure 35: Ericsson 5G Collaboration and Work 2013 – 2021
Figure 36: Ericsson 5G Strategy Chart
Figure 37: Ericsson 5G Vision for Broadband
Figure 38: Ericsson 5G Vision for Smart Transport and Infrastructure
Figure 39: Ericsson 5G Vision for Media
Figure 40: Ericsson 5G Vision for Remote Devices
Figure 41: Ericsson 5G Vision for IoT
Figure 42: Alcatel-Lucent 5G Timeline
Figure 43: Alcatel-Lucent 5G Programmable Networking Framework
Figure 44: Alcatel-Lucent 5G Solutions
Figure 45: Fujitsu 5G Network Configurations and WLAN
Figure 46: Huawei 5G Service and Scenario Vision
Figure 47: Huawei 5G All-spectrum access RAN
Figure 48: Intel 5G Vision
Figure 49: NEC 5G Vision
Figure 50: NEC’s Virtualization of Cell Concept
Figure 51: Architecture of Massive-Element Antenna
Figure 52: Samsung’s 5G Service Vision
Figure 53: Samsung Rainbow Requirements
Figure 54: Samsung’s FD-MIMO Concept
Figure 55: Samsung’s Reconfigurable 5G Phased-array Antenna
Figure 56: Samsung’s 5G Timeline
Figure 57: Samsung's 5G Trial Drive 2014
Figure 58: ZTE’s Three Dimensional 5G Vision
Figure 59: Qualcomm 5G Scalability Chart
Figure 60: Qualcomm 5G Connectivity Design
Figure 61: Qualcomm Unified Platform Dimensions
Figure 62: Qualcomm 5G Timeline 2015 - 2022
Figure 63: Qualcomm 5G Business Model
Figure 64: Qualcomm Model to Leverage 4G Investment
Figure 65: Nokia 5G Vision and Requirements
Figure 66: Nokia 5G Network Design of Functional Requirement
Figure 67: NTT DoCoMo 5G Experimental Trial
Figure 68: Global 5G Investment (R&D and Trial) in $billion 2015 – 2030
Figure 69: 5G Investments (Large Scale, Lab R&D, Test Bed) 2015/2020/2030
Figure 70: Global LTE Advance and 5G Subscription in Billion 2020 – 2030
Figure 71: Global 5G Only Subscription in Billion 2022 – 2030
Figure 72: Latency Comparison between LTE and 5G
Figure 73: End to End 5G Ecosystem
Figure 74: Total Global Mobile Operator 4G CAPEX Forecast 2009 - 2020
Figure 75: 5G Value Creation Capabilities

Tables

Table 1: OSl Layers by Category
Table 2: 5G Spectrum Band Options, Merits and Licenses
Table 3: MTC features in 3GPP Standard
Table 4: Roadmap for 5G Requirements 2015 – 2020
Table 5 Roadmap for 5G Wireless Subsystem 2015 – 2020
Table 6: Roadmap for Virtualization and Software Networks 2015 – 2020
Table 7: Roadmap for Converged Connectivity 2015 – 2020
Table 8: 5G PPP 19 Projects
Table 9: 5G Only Subscription APAC vs. NA vs. Europe vs. Others 2022 – 2030
Table 10: Mobile Operators’ 5G Expectations
Table 11: Mobile Operators’ Expectations of 5G Spectrum
Table 12: Mobile Operators’ Expectation of 5G Service Levels
Table 13: Mobile Operators’ Expectations of 5G Deployment by Region
Table 14 Mobile Operators’ 5G Commercial Launch Expectations