Summary
この調査レポートは、ロボットシャトルの20年先の技術ロードマップと予測を詳細に調査・分析しています。
主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）
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全体概要および結論
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はじめに
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ロボットシャトルアクション - 15カ国で39種類
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第二世代の新しいテクノロジーから新しい収益源を獲得するためのツールキット
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テクノロジーの実現:ライダー、レーダー、カメラ、AIソフトウェアおよびコンピューティングプラットフォーム、HDマップ、テレオペレーション、サイバーセキュリティ、5G、V2X
Report Details
Robot shuttles just got serious. The first large orders have been placed. More of the world's giant companies have entered the fray, some even likely to be both customers and manufacturers. On cue, analyst IDTechEx has launched a new report, "Robot Shuttles for Smart Cities 2021-2041" to explain the new realities and to present technology roadmaps and forecasts for 20 years ahead.
Robotaxis are a partially competing option. They are autonomous, battery-electric cars operated by the likes of Uber and taxi companies. Private cars are only used a few percent of the time and then only rarely full. When autonomous, they may be bought by people with less money because they can be lent to Uber as robotaxis when not in use. If you believe Elon Musk.
The new report maps and predicts how robot shuttles are very different, nothing short of a new form of transport being created from the ground up by about 40 organisations. These boxes on wheels are designed for smart cities and for more than road travel. Usually maximum speed is gated at 30-60 km/hr. Front-back-symmetrical means no U turns so they can quietly, cleanly go where cars are banned - down paths, into shopping malls, over plazas. Some even have crab-action sideways. Unlike a regular taxi or car, large sliding doors create fast entry/exit even of the disabled in wheelchairs. These doors do not swing open to kill cyclists nor do they prevent exit in confined spaces.
Uniquely, robot shuttles are made to be rapidly reconfigurable for multiple tasks even in one day with many formats, signage changes etc. Most have standing room and all-round large windows prevent claustrophobia compared to a robotaxi. The windows can contain the new microLEDs selling advertising. Standing room minimizes cost and road footprint per passenger.
See new infograms, tables and graphs comparing all options and new technology commitments from 2021 such as solar bodywork. Absorb other ideas and benchmarking from multi-lingual PhD level IDTechEx analysts across the world.
Latest news is that the projects are splitting into small and large sizes. 4-6 seaters are not very versatile and compete with robotaxis in locations penetrated. They have lowest cost but limited ability to get people with monster bags to the airport at speed. More mainstream is the larger ones typically 10-25 passengers including standing. These can additionally compete with school, micro and midi buses, even last mile package delivery and repurpose to mobile libraries, fast food, temporary event ticketing stands and more. However, it now emerges that some of this is achievable electrically but some is best done with new modular body replacement allowing repurposing through the day or the week. The report therefore covers all this new progress and platforms.
Questions answered by the report include:
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Forecasts numbers and value 2021-2041?
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Addressable market segments in detail and strategy options?
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Potential smart city partners and services?
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Results of trials from Japan to Europe and USA. Options of empowerment, inner city circulator etc.?
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Technology roadmaps 2021-2041?
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Detailed profiles on most players with IDTechEx SWOT reports matched to market?
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Dead ends and doomed projects with reasons set against likely winners?
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Leaders in modularisation, market trials, orders landed, speed of transitioning to second generation?
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360 degree wheels, new motors and batteries, autonomy technology detail, issues and economics, structural and transparent electronics, solar, smart windows. Who? When? Why?
The 595 page report "Robot Shuttles for Smart Cities 2021-2041" is unique in being so thorough and up-to-date and being written by globally acknowledged experts. It seeks to give an easily-absorbed commercial look at the technology, applications and business opportunities worldwide. That involves over 100 new infograms, graphs, comparison tables, photographs and diagrams. The report is so thorough, it even forecasts the associated business of autonomous buses and reveals the social benefits of everything planned. There is much news from 2021 assessed here and the report is regularly updated so you get the latest.
The Executive Summary and Conclusions explains the basics, gives over 20 key conclusions, detailed comparison tables of projects and all those forecasts, surfacing how they are evolving into key technology and applicational families now. It is sufficient in-itself for those with limited time. The Introduction then compares bus and robot shuttle types with detailed tables and images. See relative efficiencies, scope for vehicles that go where others are banned, vehicle populations worldwide, date and impact of peak car with reasons. Here are visions for robot shuttles and lessons from trials of very different business cases.
Chapter 4 is a long one because it covers 39 projects in 20 countries with trials, customers, technologies, uniques, shortcomings, dreams and the IDTechEx SWAT report in each case. Chapter 5 then concerns next technology other than autonomy for it is this that can sell more product by making shuttles more useful, lower cost, longer range. Indeed, vehicle-to-grid and window advertising with light-emitting video are among the ways of earning extra income streams that are described here. This is such a fertile area that many robot shuttle services such as school runs will offered free of charge.
The following chapters are a very detailed look at autonomy technology revealing cost and performance issues and best routes to safe, affordable, acceptable, insurable autonomous robot shuttles everywhere. The report then ends with detail on those new bright transparent micro LED displays that can make the many windows readable in the dark from inside and outside to loudly proclaim repurposing (UPS, School Bus etc.) and sell that advertising.
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Table of Contents
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1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
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1.1. |
Purpose of this report |
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1.2. |
SAE levels of automation in land vehicles |
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1.3. |
Thirteen primary conclusions |
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1.3.1. |
The dream and the basics for getting there |
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1.3.2. |
Specification of a robot shuttle |
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1.3.3. |
Very different from a robotaxi |
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1.3.4. |
Smart shuttles will address megatrends in society |
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1.3.5. |
Robot shuttle business cases from bans and subsidies |
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1.3.6. |
Robot shuttle business cases from exceptional penetration of locations |
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1.3.7. |
Intensive use business cases are compelling |
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1.3.8. |
Campuses are not a quick win |
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1.3.9. |
The robot shuttle opportunity cannot be addressed by adapting existing vehicles |
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1.3.10. |
The leaders so far |
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1.3.11. |
Upfront cost and other impediments |
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1.3.12. |
Dramatic technical improvements are coming |
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1.3.13. |
Autonomous vehicle use of 5G and 6G communications |
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1.4. |
Two generations of robot shuttle |
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1.4.1. |
Envisaged applications compared |
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1.4.2. |
Second generation robot shuttle 2025-2040 |
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1.5. |
Robot shuttles: the good things |
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1.5.1. |
Many benefits |
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1.5.2. |
Building on the multi-purposing of the past |
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1.5.3. |
Heart of the ideal robot shuttle |
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1.5.4. |
Archetypal large robot shuttles |
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1.5.5. |
Archetypal small robot shuttles |
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1.6. |
Robot shuttles: the bad things |
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1.7. |
Analysis of 39 robot shuttles and their dreams |
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1.8. |
Geographical, size, deployment distribution of 39 robot shuttles |
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1.8.1. |
Manufacture by country |
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1.8.2. |
Manufacture by major region |
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1.8.3. |
Designs by size |
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1.8.4. |
Number of robot shuttles deployed globally by manufacturer 2021 |
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1.9. |
Timelines and forecasts |
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1.9.1. |
Technology and launch roadmap 2020-2041 |
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1.9.2. |
Predicting when the robot shuttle has lower up-front price than a legal diesel midibus 2020-2041 |
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1.9.3. |
Hype 2018-2041 |
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1.9.4. |
Robot shuttles total market size in unit numbers thousand 2019-2041 |
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1.9.5. |
Robot shuttles total market size in US$ million 2019-2041 |
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2. |
INTRODUCTION |
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2.1. |
Bus and robot shuttle types compared |
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2.2. |
Bus population worldwide by types 2020 |
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2.3. |
Pure electric buses for lowest TCO |
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2.4. |
Peak car coming: global passenger car sales forecast 2020-2040 - moderate scenario (unit numbers) |
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2.5. |
Background to robot shuttles |
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2.6. |
Tough for robot shuttles to compete |
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2.7. |
Second generation robot shuttles |
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2.8. |
Michigan Mobility Challenge: seniors, disabled, veterans |
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2.9. |
Texas trials: downtown circulator |
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2.10. |
Trials in Japan |
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2.11. |
Schaeffler: mechanically repurposed shuttle |
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2.12. |
Einride Sweden: not quite a robot shuttle |
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2.13. |
Rinspeed dreams embrace robot shuttles |
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3. |
ROBOT SHUTTLES IN ACTION - 39 TYPES IN 15 COUNTRIES |
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3.1. |
2getthere Netherlands |
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3.2. |
5GX shuttle SKT Korea |
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3.3. |
ANA collaboration Japan |
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3.4. |
Apollo Apolong: Baidu King Long China |
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3.5. |
Apple VWT6 USA |
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3.6. |
Astar Golden Dragon China |
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3.7. |
Aurrigo UK |
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3.8. |
AUVE Tech. Estonia |
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3.9. |
BlueSG/ Nanyang France Singapore |
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3.10. |
Capri AECOM UK |
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3.11. |
Coast Autonomous |
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3.12. |
Cruise Origin USA |
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3.13. |
DeLijn Belgium |
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3.14. |
e-BiGO Dubai |
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3.15. |
eGo Mover Germany |
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3.16. |
E-Palette Toyota |
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3.17. |
EZ10 EasyMile France |
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3.18. |
GACHA Sensible4 Finland |
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3.19. |
Heathrow pod ULTraFairwood UK |
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3.20. |
Hino Poncho SB Drive Japan |
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3.21. |
IAV HEAT Germany |
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3.22. |
iCristal Torc Robotics USA |
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3.23. |
KAMAZ shuttles Russia |
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3.24. |
KTI Hyundai Korea |
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3.25. |
LG Korea |
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3.26. |
Myla: May Mobility USA |
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3.27. |
Navya France |
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3.28. |
NEVS Sweden/ China |
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3.29. |
Ohmio Automation New Zealand |
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3.30. |
Olli: Local Motors USA |
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3.31. |
Optimus Ride USA |
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3.32. |
Ridecell Auro USA |
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3.33. |
Scania NXT - a second generation robot shuttle Sweden |
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3.34. |
Sedric Germany |
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3.35. |
ST Engineering Land Systems Singapore |
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3.36. |
Tony: Perrone Robotics USA |
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3.37. |
Volkswagen ID Buzz Germany |
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3.38. |
Yutong Xiaoyu China |
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3.39. |
Zoox USA |
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4. |
TOOLKIT FOR NEW EARNING STREAMS FROM NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN SECOND GENERATION |
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4.1. |
Overview |
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4.2. |
New earning stream from reprogrammable intelligent surfaces |
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4.3. |
Challenges being addressed |
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4.4. |
How eight key enabling technologies for robot shuttles are improving to serve 10 primary needs |
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4.5. |
How to reduce diesel shuttle parts by 90% with advanced electrics |
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4.6. |
Big change in relative importance of parts |
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4.7. |
Future electric vehicle powertrains - relevance to robot shuttles |
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4.8. |
Platform evolution |
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4.8.1. |
Overview |
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4.8.2. |
Toyota REE chassis: huge advances |
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4.9. |
Voltage trends |
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4.10. |
Typical pure electric bus technology |
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4.11. |
Electric motors |
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4.11.1. |
Overview |
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