Summary
この調査レポートは、2022年から2044年までのLDES市場に関する20年間の市場予測を提供しています。
主な掲載内容（目次より抜粋）
LDES市場の概要とデータ分析
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LDS技術の概要
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LDES用バッテリー
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LDS用機械的エネルギー貯蔵
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熱エネルギー貯蔵
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LDS用水素
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LDS市場予測 2024-2044
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企業プロファイル
Report Summary
IDTechEx forecasts that the LDES market will be valued at US$223B in 2044. As the volume of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources penetrating electricity grids increases globally, so does the need to manage the increasing uncertainty and variability in electricity supply. Grids will be relying on different solutions to manage this, which could include building of overcapacity and interconnections, but also - importantly - long duration energy storage (LDES) technologies.
Aside from pumped hydro, Li-ion batteries currently dominate the global stationary energy storage market, and they are suitable for large, grid-scale installations to provide ancillary and utility services. As VRE penetration increases, however, demand for LDES technologies is expected to increase. These technologies will be needed to dispatch energy over longer timeframes (6+ hours) when energy from VRE sources is not available. The capital cost of Li-ion is unlikely to be low enough for LDES, and instead, alternative energy storage (ES) technologies aim to offer lower costs. One way to achieve this is through designs that allow for energy and power decoupling, resulting in faster and non-linear decreases in CAPEX ($/kWh) with increasing durations of storage. For example, some RFBs only require the scaling of electrolyte storage tanks and electrolyte volumes to increase the duration of storage, and liquid-air energy storage (LAES) systems can have liquid-air storage tank capacities scaled, while turbomachinery requirements do not scale with capacity (GWh) but with power output (GW).
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Decoupling of energy capacity and power in redox flow batteries (left), and reductions in CAPEX ($/kWh) (right). Source: IDTechEx.
This is partly why LDES technologies will be useful for providing durations of storage greater than 6 hours. Moreover, suspected Li-ion material constraints coming towards the end of the decade and the safety risks of Li-ion batteries are expected to be other key factors driving demand for other ES technologies generally.
Countries and states have announced VRE deployment targets, which will increase the share of electricity being generated by VRE. When electricity generated by VRE reaches 40-50%, this is when average duration of storage in a given country or state should be 6 hours to be most cost optimal for the electricity system, and thus will be when demand for LDES will increase. On average, globally, it will not be until the late 2030s where VRE forms 45% of the electricity generation mix. There will be key countries and US states that will potentially reach this percentage sooner, and so LDES will be in demand in these key regions sooner than others. Namely, this includes Germany, the UK, Italy, California, Texas, India, and Australia.
A great variety of LDES technologies are being developed across key regions. This includes electrochemical, mechanical, thermal and hydrogen storage. Technology classifications can be further segmented into specific technologies, detailed below. As of November 2023, ~US$4.0B has been invested into key players developing these technologies (excluding hydrogen).
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Energy storage technology classification. Source: IDTechEx.
Funding into energy storage technologies (US$M) as of November 2023. Source: IDTechEx.
However, several key considerations must be made when developing these technologies and determining their suitability for LDES applications. This report analyses the following technologies being developed by key players: iron-air (Fe-air), rechargeable zinc batteries (Zn-air, Zn-ion, rechargeable Zn-MnO2, Zn-Br), high-temperature / molten-salt batteries, RFBs, (CAES), liquid-air energy storage (LAES), cryogenic / liquid-CO2 energy storage (LCES), alternative and underground pumped hydro storage (APHS), gravitational energy storage systems (GESS), thermal and electro-thermal energy storage (TES) and (ETES), and hydrogen. Technology benchmarks against key metrics are also provided for 10+ LDES technologies including CAPEX (US$/kWh), round-trip efficiency, cycle-life / lifetime, and energy density.
Mechanical energy storage systems are likely to be a key contributor to the LDES market in the long-term, given that these systems become more economical to develop at larger sizes (100+ MW) and longer durations of storage. In the cases of LAES, LCES, and underground pumped hydro storage, it is possible to expand the capacity and thus duration of storage of such systems after initial commissioning, presenting another advantage. Some developers of mechanical ES systems are already looking to deploy GWh-scale systems by 2030 in some cases too. However, the potential need to mine new underground resources (in the case of CAES and underground pumped hydro), acquire land permits/leases, and facilitate wider EPC can require much larger volumes of funding, and the absolute cost ($) of mechanical ES projects is likely to be in the order of US$100M - US$1B. Acquiring large volumes of government or private financing from various sources can contribute to and delay project lead time for systems of this magnitude. This, paired with other technologies potentially offering the use of lower cost materials, and improved performance will result in the market seeing a greater diversification of LDES technologies in the 2040s.
A key barrier for more wide-scale implementation of LDES technologies is the need for longer term revenue visibility. As LDES systems are mostly going to be 100 MWh-to-GWh-scale systems, the value of these systems could be in the range of US$100M-1B+. Current wholesale electricity price arbitrage opportunities alone are generally not frequent or large enough to make a strong economic case for the widespread deployment of LDES in the current day. LDES developers will be looking to secure capacity market contracts to secure long-term and high volumes of annual revenue, but this alone is unlikely to cover most of the investment into an LDES technology. Ultimately, key players in interview with IDTechEx commented that regulatory reforms to revenue generation from energy storage are needed to improve the economic case for LDES systems, and to improve investor confidence.
This IDTechEx report also provides 20-year market forecasts on the LDES market for the period 2022 - 2044, in both capacity (GWh) and market value (US$B). Capacity forecasts are provided by both region and by LDES technology. Regions include Germany, the UK, Italy, India, Australia, California, Texas, and Rest of the World. Splits by technology include CAES, LAES, LCES, APHS, GESS, iron-air, Zn-air, static Zn-Br, TES, ETES, and RFBs including vanadium, all-iron, Zn-Br, Zn-Fe, H-Br, and organic.
This report provides the following information:
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Future market landscape of long duration energy storage, including key player activity, historic smaller-scale deployments, planned future projects and announcements up to 2031, projects by scale (pilot-, demonstration-, commercial-scale), duration of storage by key projects, and funding by technology and by player.
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Market overview and data analysis on electricity generated by VRE in key countries and US states, solar and wind deployment targets by key country / state, storage requirements vs electricity generated by VRE, and analysis and commentary on market timing of LDES technologies.
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Comprehensive analysis and discussion on applications, revenue streams, and electricity markets for LDES. Discussion and analysis on opportunities and challenges for revenue generation from LDES.
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Analysis and discussion on other technologies to promote greater supply-side and demand-side grid stability and flexibility, including interconnectors market, vehicle-to-grid (V2G), electrolyzers, demand-side response, and thermal generation plus carbon capture and storage.
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Deep dive into LDES technologies, with benchmark analysis including metrics such as CAPEX, round-trip efficiency, cycle life / lifetime, energy density and commercial readiness levels (CRL).
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Comprehensive coverage and analysis on the following technologies for LDES, with key player activity: batteries, mechanical energy storage, thermal energy storage, and hydrogen.
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Battery chapter covers Iron-air (Fe-air), rechargeable zinc batteries (Zn-air, Zn-ion, rechargeable Zn-MnO2, Zn-Br), high-temperature / molten-salt batteries, redox flow batteries (RFBs).
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Mechanical energy storage chapter covers compressed air energy storage (CAES), liquid-air energy storage (LAES), cryogenic / liquid-CO2 energy storage (LCES), alternative and underground pumped hydro storage (APHS), and gravitational energy storage systems (GESS).
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Thermal energy storage chapter covers thermal energy storage (TES) and electro-thermal energy storage (ETES).
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Hydrogen coverage includes hydrogen storage methods, salt caverns, key projects, and applications for hydrogen in LDES.
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Granular 20-year LDES market forecasts, by region (GWh), by technology (GWh), and by value (US$B) for the 2022-2044 period.
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50+ company profiles.
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Table of Contents
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1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
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1.1. |
Key market conclusions |
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1.2. |
Key technology conclusions |
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1.3. |
LDES and VRE Executive Summary |
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1.4. |
Solar and wind deployment developments and targets by country/state |
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1.5. |
GW, GWh and duration of storage (hours) vs electricity generation % from VRE |
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1.6. |
Market timing for LDES technologies: Global average electricity generation mix from VRE |
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1.7. |
Early adopting countries and states of LDES technologies |
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1.8. |
Customers, applications and revenue generation challenges |
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1.9. |
Revenue opportunities and challenges for LDES summary |
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1.10. |
Executive Summary: Grid flexibility and stability |
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1.11. |
Overview of grid supply-side and demand-side flexibility |
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1.12. |
Energy storage technology classification |
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1.13. |
Funding into energy storage technologies by player |
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1.14. |
Announced project capacities by technology 2022-2031 |
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1.15. |
Duration of storage by technology and identified project 2015-2031 (2) |
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1.16. |
Duration of storage across announced commercial-scale ES projects |
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1.17. |
Energy storage technology benchmarking |
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1.18. |
Power and energy decoupling, cost and impact on project lead-time |
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1.19. |
LDES technology readiness level snapshot |
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1.20. |
Advantages and disadvantages for energy storage technologies |
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1.21. |
Outlook for hydrogen in LDES |
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1.22. |
Forecasts for annual installations of LDES technologies by key country / state (GWh) (2022-2024) |
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1.23. |
Forecasts for annual installations of LDES technologies by technology (GWh) (2022-2024) |
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1.24. |
Forecasts for LDES technologies (US$B) (2022-2024) |
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2. |
LDES MARKET OVERVIEW AND DATA ANALYSIS |
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2.1. |
LDES and electricity generated from VRE: Data and analysis |
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2.1.1. |
LDES and VRE executive summary |
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2.1.2. |
What is long duration energy storage? |
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2.1.3. |
Introduction to variable renewable energy (VRE) |
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2.1.4. |
Global outlook of electricity generated by VRE |
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2.1.5. |
Regional breakdown of electricity generated by VRE |
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2.1.6. |
Key countries and states responsible for increasing electricity generated by VRE |
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2.1.7. |
Breakdown of electricity generated from VRE in key US states (1) |
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2.1.8. |
Breakdown of electricity generated from VRE in key US states (2) |
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2.1.9. |
Total electricity generated across key US states |
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2.1.10. |
California and Texas VRE electricity generation mix |
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2.1.11. |
Solar and wind deployment developments and targets by country/state |
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2.1.12. |
GW, GWh and duration of storage (hours) vs electricity generation % from VRE |
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2.1.13. |
Market timing for LDES technologies: Global average electricity generation mix from VRE |
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2.1.14. |
Early adopting countries and states of LDES technologies |
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2.1.15. |
Generation from ES as % of total electricity generation vs electricity generation mix from VRE |
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2.2. |
LDES market: Overview and data analysis |
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2.2.1. |
Funding into energy storage technologies by technology |
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2.2.2. |
Funding into energy storage technologies by player |
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2.2.3. |
Cumulative GWh of deployed or announced ES projects by technology up to 2031 |
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2.2.4. |
Announced project capacities by technology 2022-2031 |
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2.2.5. |
Cumulative GWh of deployed or announced ES projects by region up to 2031 |
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2.2.6. |
Proportion of commercial-scale LDES projects |
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2.2.7. |
Projected average duration of storage across key projects (2015-2031) |
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2.2.8. |
Duration of storage by technology and identified project 2015-2031 (1) |
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2.2.9. |
Duration of storage by technology and identified project 2015-2031 (2) |
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2.2.10. |
Duration of storage across announced commercial-scale ES projects |
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2.3. |
Energy storage applications and services |
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2.3.1. |
Overview of energy storage applications |
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2.3.2. |
Values provided by storage in FTM utility services |
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2.3.3. |
Values provided by storage in FTM ancillary services |
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2.3.4. |
Values provided by storage for BTM - C&I applications |
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2.4. |
Electricity markets for LDES |
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2.4.1. |
Revenue streams for (long-duration) energy storage |
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2.4.2. |
Revenue streams descriptions |
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2.4.3. |
Price arbitrage commentary |
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2.4.4. |
Impact of CAPEX and arbitrage opportunity on payback time |
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2.4.5. |
Arbitrage volatility |
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2.4.6. |
Negative electricity prices |
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2.4.7. |
Capacity Market (CM) (1) |
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2.4.8. |
Capacity Market (CM) (2) |
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2.4.9. |
Capacity Market (CM) (3) |
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2.4.10. |
The need for longer term revenue visibility and CRM re-design |
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2.4.11. |
Ancillary services provision and revenue stacking |
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2.4.12. |
Revenue opportunities and challenges for LDES summary |
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2.5. |
Grid stability and flexibility |
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2.5.1. |
Executive Summary: Grid flexibility and stability |
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2.5.2. |
Overview of grid supply-side and demand-side flexibility |
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2.5.3. |
Renewable energy curtailment and overbuild |
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2.5.4. |
Interconnectors |
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2.5.5. |
Introduction to interconnectors |
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2.5.6. |
Cable Design: AC and DC |
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2.5.7. |
Further cable design |
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2.5.8. |
Installation and maintenance |
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2.5.9. |
Interconnectors key players |
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2.5.10. |
Geographical distribution in Europe |
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2.5.11. |
UK Interconnector market growth |
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2.5.12. |
National Grid's expectations |
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2.5.13. |
Norway-UK project cancelled |
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2.5.14. |
Other developing European projects |
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2.5.15. |
Geographical distribution in NA |
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2.5.16. |
Geographical distribution in Asia/Oceania |
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2.5.17. |
Interconnectors summary |
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2.5.18. |
Vehicle-to-grid and grid-to-vehicle |
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2.5.19. |
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) Executive Summary |
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2.5.20. |
Emerging business models for new EV services: V2X |
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2.5.21. |
V2G complexities from a grid perspective |
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2.5.22. |
General challenges around bi-directional charging |
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2.5.23. |
Different forms of V2G |
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2.5.24. |
The V2G architecture |
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2.5.25. |
V2G projects by type of service |
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2.5.26. |
Summary of smart charging implementations |
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2.5.27. |
Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles and Fleets |
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2.5.28. |
Other technologies for grid flexibility and stability |
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2.5.29. |
Hydrogen production for demand side grid flexibility |
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2.5.30. |
SOELs - supply-side flexibility |
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2.5.31. |
SOEL Market |
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2.5.32. |
Green Hydrogen Production: Electrolyzer Markets |
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2.5.33. |
Smaller-scale BESS for grid flexibility (DSR and VPP) |
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2.5.34. |
Batteries for Stationary Energy Storage (BESS) |
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2.5.35. |
Thermal generation and CCUS |
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2.5.36. |
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