Summary

In recent decades, mobile communications have completely transformed the way that human beings communicate and interact with one another. New technology generations introduced on average every ten years have consistently and fundamentally improved the overall user experience, paving the way for innovation beyond anyone’s wildest imagination. With around 8 B subscriptions worldwide and carrier revenues flattening out, any skeptic could easily argue that the best days are behind us.

The pessimist is quick to point out that the overall RAN and core infrastructure market has remained fairly flat over the past twenty years, even as mobile data traffic advanced nearly 1000-fold. In their world, 5G is just another G. Any expectation that 5G will lead to significant productivity growth are conceived as optimistic. And with data traffic now expected to advance three to four-fold over the forecasting period and a low likelihood of new revolutionary devices successfully penetrating the mass markets, they see few reasons to get excited.

The optimist, however, sees a pace of change in the telecom industry that is faster today than it has ever been before. Giving everyone a computer with mobile broadband access in the palm of their hand is just the beginning. The next phase in this digital journey will be about so much more than just increased broadband accessibility for consumers. The next phase will again deliver unanticipated innovation, once again redefining the digital landscape.

With the first phase of 5G now being a reality, both the optimist and pessimist agree that 5G will deliver benefits to support the existing use cases. And for the most part there is agreement that 5G will play a fundamental role in the next phase of this on-going digital transformation. So the debate has shifted and is now more focused on the timing and the scope beyond this initial MBB deployment phase.

In this research, we leverage our expertise in telecom and data center infrastructure along with our growing service provider coverage to analyze and track 5G progress across a broad range of technologies. By updating our research on a regular, periodic basis, we are able to provide timely insights into the latest developments and trends that characterize the dynamic and exciting 5G markets.

With our foundation as the first market research firm to start tracking mobile infrastructure markets on a quarterly basis circa 2000, we are uniquely positioned to uncover and analyze the key trends and deliver a complete picture of 5G.

The report addresses such questions as:

• What is the 5G vision and how has it changed now that 5G is a reality?
• How fast will adoption occur, compared to previous technology shifts?
• What regions will likely be the early adopters?
• Will operators invest more in the Sub 6 GHz or Millimeter Wave (mmW) spectrum?
• What use cases will drive the capex and how will the allocation between 5G RAN and 5G core be affected?
• What will be the impact on the network and the market?
• How will ongoing architectural shifts including C-RAN/D-RAN impact 5G RAN deployments?
• How will 5G impact the mix between small cells and macro base station?
• What is the status of 5G SA?

The report includes a 5-year forecast for the following areas:

• 5G RAN – Baseband Architecture
• 5G RAN – Millimeter Wave (mmWave)
• 5G RAN – Private Wireless
• 5G RAN – Sub 6 GHz
• 5G RAN – Regions (North America, Europe, MEA, APAC, China, CALA)
• 5G Core – Packet Controller
• 5G Core – Packet Gateway
• 5G Core – Regions (North America, EMEA, APAC, CALA)

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Overview ......1
Assumptions .7
Caveats .........7
Definitions....8

Worldwide Forecast Tables (Mfg. Revenue, Unit/License Shipments, Mfg. ASP)

Table 1: Worldwide 5G Market – Total....1
Table 2: Worldwide Radio Access Network Market – 5G NR – Total.........2
Table 3: Worldwide Radio Access Network Market – 5G NR – Sub 6 GHz .........4
Table 4: Worldwide Radio Access Network Market – 5G NR – Millimeter Wave 6
Table 5: Worldwide Radio Access Network Market – 5G NR – Baseband Architecture .7
Table 6: Worldwide Radio Access Network Market – 5G NR – Massive MIMO..8
Table 7: Worldwide Radio Access Network Market – 5G NR – Private Wireless.9
Table 8: Regional Radio Access Network Market – 5G NR 10
Table 9: Worldwide Wireless Packet Core Market – 5G Core .......11
Table 10: Regional Wireless Packet Core Market – 5G Core.........12

Appendices

Appendix 1: Worldwide Mobile Subscriptions.13
Appendix 2: Worldwide Mobile Subscriptions by Region ...14
Appendix 3: Worldwide Real GDP Growth .....16