Electric aircraft and eVTOLs pave the way for a greener future

There are today many large-scale industrial projects evolving around the world with the purpose of developing aircraft and eVTOLs based on electric drivetrains. At the same time, the electrification of the aviation industry represents a challenge as the industry is heavily regulated and has a strong commitment to safe operations and redundant systems. The flight range is anticipated to be limited in the first decades but due to fast, efficient, sustainable and silent operations they will be able to create new connectivity within large urban areas, between cities, from rural regions to cities and between rural areas. There are many suitable use cases from passenger transportation to cargo transportation, surveillance, healthcare and firefighting.

Hundreds of eVTOL design projects have started up worldwide. However, only a few of these are large concepts for commercial operations with 4 or more passengers. There is a market for both commercial and private eVTOLs. Looking at the specifications of the commercial eVTOLs that are closest to be certified, many of them are large vehicles with wingspans of up to 15 metres, something that needs to be considered when developing ground infrastructure as well as working with city planning, passenger processing and safety issues. Examples of eVTOL vendors include Archer, Beta Technologies, Ehang, Eve Air Mobility, Joby Aviation, Lilium, Volocopter, Vertical Aerospace and Wisk.

There are also a number of companies working on electric aircraft and drivetrains. The market is characterised by having both established aviation companies developing vehicles and solutions as well as start-ups and tech companies doing the same thing. These companies that have completely different backgrounds, address the challenge in different ways, which will result in several possible solutions and design pathways. Examples of electric aircraft vendors include Heart Aerospace, Pipistrel, Eviation and Bye Aerospace.

Before 2030 we will probably see some of the first piloted eVTOLs in commercial use. Between 2031–2035 the ecosystem and acceptance will develop, and we might see around 20,000 vehicles being delivered globally during this period. Fewer if certification and regulation is taking longer than anticipated and up to 30,000 vehicles if things fall into place quicker than forecasted. From 2036 until 2050 we forecast almost 60,000 deliveries in our mid scenario. In the high scenario we see that the total number of deliveries could reach approximately 150,000 vehicles between 2025–2050. The high scenario is based on a favourable regulatory environment where the long-term airspace management has been solved as well as the approval for autonomous flights.

There is also a market for private eVTOLs. When assuming favourable conditions, an estimate is that the total market might be shipments of up to 300,000 vehicles during 2025–2050. Most of these will be small two-seaters and the majority of them will be delivered in the later part of the forecast period. These vehicles will all need advanced avionics, connectivity, and avoid and detect technology but at the same time need to be cost-efficient solutions. A tricky combination since the regulatory demands will be very strict.

It will take some years before the first certified aircraft is ready for production. The forecast is based on an aircraft size of 6–19 seats for battery powered aircraft and 19–90 seats for hydrogen (fuel-cell) powered aircraft. This excludes the smallest aircraft types that will probably be used by for example flight schools. Due to the complex certification pathway and the dependence of new ground and charging infrastructure, we forecast that only a few hundred aircraft will be delivered before 2030. In the five-year period between 2031–2035 we see the market taking off with more than 1,000 aircraft being delivered in the mid scenario. Some of the addressable market for electric aircraft is based on the replacement of the current fleet of small aircraft up to 19 seats. This is however a comparatively small market and also a new market for regional air mobility needs to be developed. The forecast points towards a market that will take off from 2035 onwards. It will take time to develop production capacity and solve ground infrastructure challenges but with more efficient drivetrains the use case and economics look favourable in the longer term. Between 2036–2050 we estimate in the mid scenario shipments of more than 18,000 aircraft. In the high scenario we estimate more than 25,000 electric aircraft being delivered during the same period.

Electric aircraft and eVTOLs (for commercial and private use) will need advanced connectivity. Cellular connectivity is one of the prominent technologies available to support the use cases in urban areas. The upcoming LDACS (L-band Digital Aeronautical Communications System) standard is a secure, scalable and spectrum efficient terrestrial data link for civil aviation and a cellular broadband system with support for IPv6 standard. Satellite systems can also complement the ground-based architectures, particularly the LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellite constellations. The number of connected vehicles will take off from 2030 and then increase steadily. We estimate almost 75,000 connected vehicles for passenger use already 2035 and between 350,000–450,000 in 2050. Many of these are smaller and privately owned eVTOLs.

This report answers the following questions:

• What are the drivers behind the electrification of aircraft and eVTOLs?
• Which are the main challenges when electrifying airborne vehicles?
• What regulations and standards need to be in place?
• Which are the main risk and safety aspects and how will they be handled?
• What are the strategies and timelines for some of the leading vehicle developers?
• What is the roadmap and timeline for the implementation of autonomous flights?
• What IoT connectivity solutions are needed for these new vehicles?
• How will the aircraft and eVTOLs be certified?