Summary

Key Highlights

With the ACES mobility research and analysis platform, M14 Intelligence is bringing the most in-depth analysis of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility industry. This report plays a part in assisting stakeholders in understanding the market penetration of autonomous vehicles in First-Mile, Middle-Mile, and Last-Mile logistic operations, market assessment by type of vehicles i.e. Autonomous Trucks (Level4/5), Autonomous On-Road Delivery Vans, Sidewalk Droids/Robots, sensor content of these autonomous vehicles, autonomy package cost, consumer analysis and competition among the leading OEMs and start-ups across the geographies.

• The AVs market in logistics is a rapidly growing industry, driven by the massive growth in e-commerce and logistics post the Covid-19 pandemic, need for supply chain optimization, and labour shortage across geographies 
• Consumer demands for free shipping, shorter delivery time, contact-less deliveries are few of demand-side factors attributing to the larger acceptance for the autonomous driving in last-mile operations 
• The automation is expected to show increasing penetration over the years in the middle-mile operations as the demand from consumers for rapid, inexpensive, and predictable deliveries is surging 
• Autonomous technology penetration in class-8 trucking has predominantly increased since past 2 to 3 years. Close to $4 billion funding has been recorded in autonomous trucking industry since 2016
• Robotic delivery services or automated deliveries are emerging as a viable path toward commercial scale and profitability. The autonomous technology penetration in last-mile delivery business has a potential to cut the cost up to 52% in short-term and up to 75% in long-term 
• The United States is a clear leader in developing and deploying autonomous vehicle technology, accounting for 94% of the total North America’s volume shipment of autonomous logistics vehicle
• In terms of setting standards and national level policies, China is taking this on high priority and evolving at faster pace. More than 20 smart highways are scheduled for construction across 13 Chinese provinces, promoting the testing and application of AV technology, especially for autonomous trucking
• Legislation in the European Union has completed defining the framework conditions for the use of fully automated trucks (SAE Level 4). Some autonomous driving vehicles are already rolling on European roads with special permits. The Western European countries account for 90% of the Europe’s autonomous vehicle market currently
•  This autonomous vehicle market in logistics industry is highly fragmented, with several stakeholders including OEMs, technology players, software and AI companies, system integrators, sensor providers, consumers such as shipping companies, e-commerce players, food delivery giants and logistics companies

Market Overview

Autonomous driving technology revolution is making a paradigm shift in the way transportation industry works. This technology has been on the radar of automotive OEMs  from quite a longer period of time. However, its complete penetration into the passenger vehicle market still seems a distant dream due to many reasons such as technical hurdles, lower consumer acceptance, lack of solid regulatory policies, deficient infrastructure, and others. On contrary, the commercial highway vehicle industry has opened wide arms for higher level of automation pertaining to the increased demand for e-commerce and logistics post the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2020, the supply chain disruption occurred and the need for automation seemed more evident.  

Most of the AV start-ups have reallocated their capitals from passenger carriers to good carriers. Autonomous technology penetration in class-8 trucking has predominantly increased since past 2 to 3 years.

Close to $4 billion funding has been recorded in autonomous trucking industry since 2016. 

The top three leading autonomous start-ups having product portfolio targeting trucking business had become public and looking forward to launch their fully autonomous driving technology by 2024. 

China’s Inceptio Technology, dealing in autonomous driving truck technology and operation has raised highest funding till date compared to its peers. The company has recently closed $188 million Series B+ equity financing round to introduce more mass-produced L3 and L4 self-driving truck models to the market. In 2021, Aurora Innovation, TuSimple, and Embark launched their Initial Public Offering (IPO) and went public. These three leaders in the autonomous trucking business have cumulatively raised ˜$1.5 billion in funding. Plus.ai has raised $520 million over 5 funding rounds, with latest of $220 million from ClearVue Partners and FountainVest Partners. Pony.ai and Waymo are leaders already in the robotaxi market and have recently unveiled their entry in autonomous trucking and logistics market.

Waymo has raised funding of $2.25 billion from external investors, post which it formally announced the launching of Waymo Via, autonomous trucking segment. The investment pumped for this segment is estimated to be around $500 million. In latest Series D funding round of undisclosed amount, Pony.ai is estimated to have raised around $100 million for its robotruck product.  

The massive growth in e-commerce has pushed the shipping companies to increase more freight on the road which further created the challenge of driver shortage in the U.S., Europe, and China. The development in the advance driver assistance technology has been a boon to the logistics and shipping industry. This has created a significant demand for autonomous trucks for first-mile operations as the technology is capable of optimizing the supply chain and the reduce the operations cost significantly.
Moreover, the capabilities of autonomous technology fits perfectly to the environment in which the trucks operate. For instances, the truck routes between the distribution hubs eliminates lots of the more challenging scenarios for autonomous vehicles, such as pedestrians, stop signs, un-protected left turns, turning right on red lights, and other situations which rely on human judgment. Hence, it is more evident that autonomous technology is being deployed in trucks at faster pace and the industry is witnessing significant development towards achieving that. 

The autonomous tech has penetrated not only into the highway trucking but also into the intra city transportation of goods from warehouses to the stores. Since 2020, the autonomous technology has also penetrated into the last-mile operations of the supply chain. Many start-ups have emerged in this space targeting the food and grocery deliveries directly to the consumers involving smaller droids of 20 to 50 lbs. According to M14 Intelligence analysis, the autonomous technology penetration in last-mile delivery business has a potential to cut the cost up to 52% in short-term and up to 75% in long-term. Although the penetration of autonomous technology in quite low at present, however, the demand is expected to grow dramatical over next 5 years. In terms of volume, the autonomous logistics vehicles (L4 and L5) are anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 87% from 2022 to 2030. The industry is expected to witness a dramatic spike in the volume of autonomous vehicles in 2024 and 2025, as OEMs and technology companies have set their launch timelines during the same period. 

The United States is a clear leader in developing and deploying autonomous vehicle technology. The country’s autonomous logistics vehicles volume shipment is estimated at xx units in 2022 and expected to reach xx million units by 2030. In the U.S., both the federal government and states have issued AD-related regulations, helping companies to progress towards commercialization. According to NHTSA, there are total 121 testing sites currently being permitted for testing of autonomous vehicles, of which 14 highways, 7 Universities, 5 Business campuses, and 2 sidewalk or pathways are dedicatedly being used to test autonomous logistic vehicles. Companies including Yandex, TuSimple, Valeo North America, Nuro, Locomation, Kodiak Robotics, Gatik AI, Embark, and Aurora Innovations are full-fledged working towards testing and deploying autonomous technology on these permitted U.S. roads.

 According to American Transportation Research Institute’s data, driver costs on and average 42% of total freight revenue. The introduction of autonomous technology into freight transportation has the capability to reduce this cost significantly. Moreover, fuel efficiency is critical for road freight transportation, the application of autonomous technology in trucks could achieve around 10% reduction in the fuel consumption. The advent of autonomous technology can alleviate the constraints on the supply side and fulfill the unmet demand in road logistics. The average selling price of level 4/5 highway trucks is currently estimated at $xx and with mass production and commercialization, the ASP is expected to decline to $xx.
 
The package and food delivery industry has witnessed tremendous growth, recording $150 billion in 2021. Moreover, there is no shortage of funding for the continued development of sidewalk delivery technology as billion-dollar partnerships leveraged among many of the existing and upstart transport, and tech companies including FedEx, Amazon, Yandex, Magna International, Uber Eats, 7 Eleven, Co-op, JD.com, and Alibaba. The average cost of one fully autonomous sidewalk robot is estimated at $xx which is expected to further reduce over the years as the industry reached mass-production and commercialization stage. 

Unlike the Robotaxis or the autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous trucks have thrived through technological challenges and regulatory policies. Autonomous trucks are now a crucial part of supply chains’ first-mile delivery segment. The start-ups in this segment have progressed exponentially with billions of dollars of investments from venture capitalists and tech giants, while few of them have become public in matter of just 5-6 years. The leader in this space includes TuSimple, Plus.ai, Embark, Aurora, Kodiak Robotics, and Einride.

Quite few companies have realized the loopholes of the supply chain and have taken steps to optimize the ‘middle-mile’ delivery stage of logistics industry by deploying autonomous electric vans. Gatik, the U.S. based start-up is currently dominating the U.S. middle-mile logistics market by partnering with e-commerce giants such as Walmart.  While NuPort has wide reach over the Canadian market with government funding. Torc is a subsidiary of Daimler Trucks and together the companies are progressing towards accelerating the deployment of autonomous vehicles for B2B applications and optimizing the supply chain cost. 
Last Mile delivery is the most critical part of the supply chain as it involves direct contact with the customers. Post Covid-19, the demand for autonomous, contactless, and on-demand deliveries have boomed and players such as Starship Technologies, Kiwibot, Udelv, JD Logistics,  Neolix, Nuro, and others have very satisfactorily served the customers with their small autonomous delivery robots/vehicles. Multiple robotics start-ups have entered this last-mile delivery segment since past 2 to 3 years as it holds high growth prospect.

Key Questions Answered

What is the current status of Autonomous Vehicles in Logistics industry?

What growth potential does this technology holds in coming 5 to 10 years?

Which factors are attributing to the growth of AV market and what is the degree to impact?

How is the market penetration of autonomous logistics vehicles in major economies?

How is the market potential for autonomous vehicles in First-mile, Middle-mile, and last-mile operations?

Which vehicles amongst the autonomous trucks, on-road delivery vehicles, and sidewalk robots have highest demands?

Which companies are leading in terms of testing and deployment and which companies are the entering the market?

What is the autonomy package cost of autonomous logistics vehicles?

What is the sensor content for each type of autonomous logistics vehicles?

What are the entry barriers for the start-ups and how much growth potential does this sector holds?

How much funding or capital investment has been made in autonomous logistics vehicle segment over past 3  years?

Which markets are expected to drive the demand for autonomous logistic vehicles?

Which geographic markets are expected to have highest penetration of autonomous logistics vehicles?

What is the projected sales demand for all types of autonomous vehicles in logistics industry?

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Scope of Research and Assumptions

2. Research Methodology - Data Analysis and Forecast

3. Status of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - Market Outlook

4. Global Commercial Vehicle (LCV and HCV) Sales - Market Outlook

4.1. Geographical plot of Commercial vehicle sales (000'units)
4.2. Commercial Vehicle Sales by Top 20 Countries, 2021 statistics
4.3. Regional Sales Statistics, 2019-2021

5. Commercial Highway Vehicles/Trucks Market Breakdown by Level of Automation

5.1. Level-wise Assessment, Market Volume (000' Units)
5.2. Autonomy Package Cost of ADAS and Autonomous Highway Trucks, by Level of Autonomy, 2021-2030

6. Global Market Statistics for Autonomous Technology Penetration in Logistics and Transportation Vehicles (Outdoor)

6.1. Autonomous Logistics Vehicle Market by Volume (000' units)
6.2. Autonomous Logistics Vehicle Market by Value ($ Million)

7. Geographical Analysis of Autonomous Logistic Vehicles

7.1. Top Geographic Markets for Autonomous Logistics Vehicles - Volume (000' Units)
7.2. Regional Market Breakdown for Autonomous Logistics Vehicles - Volume (000' Units)

8. Autonomous Logistic Vehicles Market Breakdown by Operations

8.1. % Penetration of autonomous technology in logistic Operations
8.2. First-Mile, Middle Mile, and Last-mile autonomous vehicles market volume (000' Units))
8.3. First-Mile, Middle Mile, and Last-mile autonomous vehicles market Value ($ Million)
8.4. % Penetration of Type of Autonomous Vehicles in First, Medium and Last-mile operations, 2021 2030

9. First-Mile: Autonomous Logistics Vehicle Market

9.1. Autonomous Vehicles in First Mile Operations, Market Volume (000' Units)
9.2. Autonomous Vehicles in First Mile Operations, Market Value ($ Million)

10. Middle-Mile: Autonomous Logistics Vehicle Market

10.1 Autonomous Vehicles in Middle Mile Operations, Market Volume (000' Units)
10.2. Autonomous Vehicles in Middle Mile Operations, Market Value ($ Million)

11. Last-Mile: Autonomous Logistics Vehicle Market

11.1 Autonomous Vehicles in Last Mile Operations, Market Volume (000' Units)
11.2. Autonomous Vehicles in Last Mile Operations, Market Value ($ Million)
11.3 Autonomous Vehicles in Last Mile Operations,By Payload Capacity ( <100Ibs., 100Ibs., >300Ibs.) - Market Volume (000' Units)
11.4 Pricing Analysis of Last-Mile Robotic Vehicles

12. Global Logistic Vehicles Market Breakdown by Type of Vehicle/ Droid- (Autonomous Highway (L4/5) trucks, On-Road Delivery Vehicles, Sidewalk Robots/ Droids)

12.1.  Autonomous Logistics Vehicles , by Type - Market Volume (Units)
12.2. Y-O-Y Growth Rate (%) pf Types of Autonomous Logistics Vehicles
12.3. Autonomous Logistics Vehicles , by Type - Market Value ($ Million)
12.4. Market Volume of Vehicle Types Vs ASP ($)

13. Market Analysis of Autonomous Highway Trucks (Level 4/5)

13.1 Autonomous Highway Trucks (Level 4/5) - Market Volume
13.2 Autonomous Highway Trucks (Level 4/5) - Market Value
13.3 Top Regional Markets for Autonomous Highway Trucks (L4/5) - Market Volume

14. Market Analysis of Autonomous On-road Delivery Vans

14.1 Autonomous On-road Delivery Vans - Market Volume
14.2 Autonomous On-road Delivery Vans - Market Value
14.3 Top Regional Markets for Autonomous On-road Delivery Vans - Market Volume (Units)

15. Market Analysis of Autonomous Sidewalk Robots/ Droids

15.1 Autonomous Sidewalk Robots/ Droids - Market Volume
15.2 Autonomous Sidewalk Robots/ Droids - Market Value
15.3 Top Regional Markets for Autonomous Sidewalk Robots/ Droids - Market Volume (Units)

16. Sensor Content in Autonomous Logistics Vehicles

16.1 Analysis of sensors Equipped per Autonomous Logistics Vehicle
16.2. Autonomous Trucks (L4/L5) Sensor Content

16.2.1. Autonomy Package Cost
16.2.2 Sensor Content per L4/5 Autonomous Truck
16.2.3. Volume Shipment (000' Units) of Sensors Equipped Autonomous Level 4/5 Trucks
16.2.4. Value of Sensors Equipped in Autonomous Level 4/5 Trucks - Market Size ($ Million)

16.3. Autonomous On-Road Delivery Vans Sensor Content

16.3.1. Autonomy  Package Cost
16.3.2. Sensor Content per Autonomous on-Road Delivery Vans
16.3.3. Market Volume Shipment (000' units) of Sensors Equipped in Autonomous On-Road Delivery Vans
16.3.4. Market value ($ Million) of Sensors Equipped in Autonomous On-Road Delivery

16.4. Autonomous Sidewalk Robots Sensor Content

16.4.1. Autonomy Package Cost
16.4.2. Sensor Content per Autonomous Sidewalk Robots
16.4.3. Market Volume Shipment (000' Units) of Sensors Equipped Autonomous Sidewalk Robots
16.4.4. Market Value ($ Million) of Sensors Equipped Autonomous Sidewalk Robots

17. Company Analysis by Type of Logistic Operation

17.1. AV Tech Providers: First, middle and Last Mile Logistics Solution - Snapshot
17.2. Adoption of Autonomous Vehicle Services in Logistics Industry
17.3. Regional Distribution of AV Companies in Logistics Industry
17.4. Company Analysis - First Mile Delivery

17.4.1. Funding Analysis - Autonomous Trucking Companies in First Mile Logistics
17.4.2. Time-to-Market or Market Commercialization Timeline- Autonomous Trucking Companies in First Mile Logistics
17.4.3. Geographic Presence of Leading Players in Autonomous Trucking Business
17.4.4. Partnerships and Collaborations of Autonomous Trucking Companies with Logistic Service Providers and OMEs

17.5. Company Analysis - Middle Nile Delivery

17.5.1. Path to Commercialization: Autonomous Vehicle Companies in Middle-mile Delivery

17.6. Company Analysis - Last Mile Delivery

17.6.1. Time-to-Market or Market/ Commercialization timeline- Robotics Vehicle Companies in Last-mile Logistics
17.6.2. Funding Analysis: Robotics Vehicle Companies in Last-mile Logistics
17.6.3. Fleet of Robotics Vehicle by Companies in Last-mile Logistics
17.6.4. Geographical Placement of Robotics Vehicles in Last-mile Logistics
17.6.5. Comparison of Last-Mile Delivery Robot Based On Specifications
17.6.6. Partnership, Collaborations, and M&A: Autonomous Last-mile Delivery Companies

17.7. Last-Mile Sidewalk Delivery Robots- Analysis

17.7.1. Payload Capacity vs Service Charges per Delivery

17.8. Last Mile On-Road Delivery Autonomous Vehicles- Analysis

17.8.1. Payload Capacity vs Service Charges per Delivery

18. Consumer Analysis Retailers, e-Commerce, Food Delivery Service Providers, ShippingCompanies, and Others

18.1. Leading e-commerce and logistics service companies: Adoption Timeline of Autonomous Delivery Vehicles

19. Autonomous Technology Adoption Rating - Assumptions, Parameters, and Methodology

19.1. Adoption rating of Leading E-commerce and retail Service Providers

19.1.1. Top E-Commerce Players in the U.S.
19.1.2. Top E-Commerce Players in China

19.2. Autonomous Technology Adoption Rating: Grocery and Food Delivery Companies
19.3. Autonomous Technology Adoption Rating: Shipping, Transportation and Logistic Companies

20. Company Profiles

21. Views of Industry Experts

22. Appendix