Fixed-mobile convergence: trends and forecasts 2018-2023

有線と無線のコンバージェンス：動向と予測　2018-2023年

出版社	出版年月	電子版価格	ページ数	言語
Analysys Mason アナリシスメイソン	2019年3月22日	US$7,999 ベーシックライセンスライセンス・価格情報・注文方法はこちら	29	英語

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Table of Contents

Summary

Converged infrastructure, mobile competition and operator pricing strategies are some of the key factors that affect the growth of fixed?mobile convergence in Europe and Asia?Pacific. This forecast report examines the main trends and drivers and provides a 5-year outlook on the take-up of fixed?mobile convergence in 11 countries in Europe and 3 in Asia?Pacific

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6.Executive summary
Several factors affect the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
Scorecard of incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
The take-up rate of FMC bundles will vary; FMC household penetration will be highest in Spain, France and Portugal [1]
The take-up rate of FMC bundles will vary; FMC household penetration will be highest in Spain, France and Portugal [2]
Recommendations
Regional trends
Southern European countries continue to lead the way in fixed?mobile convergence take-up
Integrated markets have the strongest potential for FMC take-up, but this does not guarantee that they will have the highest levels of convergence
Mobile-centric operators will benefit from the increased availability of competitive wholesale for gigabit access and the arrival of 5G fixed?wireless access (FWA)
FMC bundle penetration has almost reached saturation in the most developed markets, but the number of FMC subscriptions will grow by at least 10% elsewhere
Demographic factors will continue to play an important role in the penetration of FMC bundles
Pay TV is the focal point of fixed?mobile convergence in many countries but there are signs that this is beginning to change
The rise of third-party OTT video, exclusivity issues and changing viewing behaviour mean that operators can launch FMC bundles that do not include pay TV

20.Challenger operators will put pressure on ARPA in several markets

21.Competition is shifting to the lower end of some advanced markets; operators are now using sub-brands in order to take advantage of brand segmentation
Convergence is yet to gain strong momentum in Asia?Pacific, but take-up will increase strongly during the forecast period
Western Europe
Belgium: Proximus and Telenet dominate the market, despite Orange’s launch of fixed?mobile convergence
France: operators will focus on multi-brand strategies in order to insulate themselves from intensified competition in the value segment
Germany: the take-up of FMC services will grow steadily but will remain relative low compared to that in other Western European countries
Italy: the entry of the low-cost mobile operator Iliad caused integrated operators to focus more on their FMC strategies
Netherlands: the merger of T-Mobile and Tele2 should boost competition in the Dutch telecoms market
Portugal: the FMC market has settled following a period of explosive growth
Spain: growth in the number of FMC accounts will largely be restricted to the value segment, leading to a modest decline in ARPA
UK: the future of FMC penetration is dependent on the strategy of BT/EE, the only truly converged operator in the market
Central and Eastern Europe
Poland: market fragmentation will limit the potential for fixed?mobile convergence

34.Romania: the fragmented FMC market will gradually converge around the middle-income segment
Turkey: increasing pay-TV investment is leading to an increase in the number of quad-play bundles
Asia?Pacific
Australia: the shift towards convergence has yet to be fully realised
Malaysia: only one operator currently offers a truly converged bundle
Philippines: growing competition in the mobile market is expected to increase operators’ focus on FMC bundles
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our forecasts cover fixed broadband, pay-TV and mobile service bundles, with or without fixed voice
Notes on key assumptions and methodology
Factors influencing the growth of supply and/or demand for FMC bundles (often acting together)
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors [1/2]
About the authors [2/2]
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason

49.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures:

Figure 1: Incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
Figure 2: Incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles by country
Figure 3a: Household penetration of FMC bundles and FMC SIMs as a share of total SIMs, selected countries in Europe, 2023

Figure 3b: Household penetration of FMC bundles and FMC SIMs as a share of total SIMs, selected countries in Asia?Pacific, 2023
Figure 4: FMC bundle penetration of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2018
Figure 5: MNO shares of fixed broadband and pay-TV markets, by country, selected European countries, 2017
Figure 6: FMC bundle penetration of fixed broadband connections, selected European countries, 2013?2023
Figure 7: Forecasted number of SIMs per FMC account, average household size and FMC SIMs’ share of contract SIMs, by country, 2023
Figure 8: Pay-TV penetration of FMC bundles by country, 2013?2023
Figure 9: Examples of pay-TV strategies
Figure 10: Average revenue per FMC account (ARPA), by country, 2013?2023

Figure 11: Example of FMC brands in the highly converged Spanish market
Figure 12: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Belgium, 2013?2023

Figure 13: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, France, 2013?2023

Figure 14: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Germany, 2013?2023

Figure 15: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Italy, 2013?2023

Figure 16: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Netherlands, 2013?2023

Figure 17: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Portugal, 2013?2023

Figure 18: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Spain, 2013?2023

Figure 19: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, UK, 2013?2023

Figure 20: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Poland, 2013?2023

Figure 21: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Romania, 2013?2023

Figure 22: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Turkey, 2013?2023

Figure 23: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Australia, 2013?2023

Figure 24: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Malaysia, 2013?2023

Figure 25: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Philippines, 2013?2023

Figure 26: Multi-play bundles covered in our analysis (may or may not include fixed voice)

Figure 27: Drivers and incentives for FMC supply and demand

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